NL MVP odds, best bets: Juan Soto favored in field of ascending stars

While the AL MVP race is one man vs. the field, the NL market is wide open. Freddie Freeman won the award in 2020 after four prior top-10 finishes, but he'll face stiff competition from a group of ascending stars and several other potential value plays in a deep league.

Here are the odds to win the NL MVP (50-1 or shorter) and what to know about the favorites and potential sleepers:

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals (+800)

Fernando Tatis Jr. has drawn all the headlines over the past year as the future face of baseball, but Soto might be the better choice to own the majors for the next decade.

The Nationals star led MLB in OPS (1.185) during his age-21 season, and he finished fifth in MVP voting despite playing in just 47 of 60 games. That came after two years of elite play and a 2019 postseason run that belongs in the record books.

The issue with him is the price, as it is with any MVP favorite. Can you justify paying 8-1 for Soto when 9-1 odds on Tatis or Ronald Acuna Jr. - the other two members of MLB's rising stars trio - are also available? My money says yes, though the field is still too wide open to place all of your eggs in one basket.

Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers (+1300)

What in the world happened to Yelich last season? After being named the NL MVP in 2018 and finishing second in 2019, his slash line cratered to .205/.356/.430 with a paltry .786 OPS, and he struck out during 30.8% of his plate appearances.

The good news? The two-time All-Star also posted a career-high 18.6% walk rate, which means an altered approach is likely the culprit for his outlier season, and not Yelich's skills regressing. His 55.6% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast, was also a career-high, and his xBA (.248) was significantly higher than the 29-year-old's actual batting average (.205).

There are indications of a bounce-back campaign, and while this price is still a bit hefty, it's worth investing in a perennial MVP contender.

Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers (+1700)

Seager became a household name after his stellar 2020 postseason when he hit .400 with a pair of crucial homers during the Dodgers' six-game World Series win over the Rays.

But he's really been playing at that level for years. The 26-year-old shortstop finished third in MVP voting as a rookie in 2016, and he's earned MVP votes during every healthy season of his career. That includes 2020, when he hit 15 home runs over just 52 games.

Seager is a rising star and worth every penny at this price.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Braves (+4500)

Let's get this out of the way: Ozuna's 2020 season was probably a fluke. He led the NL in home runs (18), RBI (56), and total bases (145), ranked third in OPS (1.067), and hit .338 to finish sixth in MVP voting. A quick look at his BABIP (.391) suggests none of that is sustainable.

But what if it is sustainable? Ozuna experienced a BABIP spike during the outfielder's breakout 2017 campaign that launched him to potential stardom, and the veteran's hard-hit metrics aligned with the rest of his career. Ozuna probably won't reach those heights again in 2021, but you'll regret passing on him if he does.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.