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3 MLB win totals to bet early

Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

MLB spring training is already underway, and the regular season begins next month. Frankly, you're behind if you haven't already scoped out 2021 win totals.

Let's dive into the over/unders for this season and dish out our three favorite bets.

Team O/U
Dodgers 103.5
Yankees 95.5
Padres 94.5
Braves 91.5
Mets 91
White Sox 90.5
Twins 90
Astros 87.5
Athletics 86.5
Cardinals 86
Rays 86
Blue Jays 86
Nationals 84
Angels 83.5
Brewers 82
Reds 81.5
Indians 81.5
Phillies 81.5
Red Sox 79.5
Cubs 78.5
Giants 75
Diamondbacks 74.5
Royals 73.5
Mariners 73
Marlins 71.5
Tigers 67.5
Rangers 67.5
Rockies 65
Orioles 63.5
Pirates 58.5

Rockies over 65

Believe me, I didn't want to do this, but I have to take the Rockies here.

The Dodgers have assembled a squad of world-beaters, the Padres employ a pair of legitimate MVP candidates, and the Giants and Diamondbacks both at least have pulses in the NL West.

Yet, here we are, betting the over on a team that just traded away its best player and is now projected for MLB's third-worst record. What gives?

Nolan Arenado getting sent to the Cardinals hurts. Not only do the Rockies lose their best player, but the move sends a message that the front office isn't in a rush to compete.

However, Colorado also cut ties with a lot of its weak links. Four of the team's bottom-five players in WAR from last season are gone, as are Tony Wolters (-0.3 WAR in 2020) and Ian Desmond (-3.2 from 2017 to 2019 with Colorado).

The club's 2021 projected lineup features plenty of hitters in their prime, with an average age of 28.4 years old. And there's a lot of juice left in the older guys, like Charlie Blackmon at 34 years old (3.2 oWAR or better in five straight full seasons) and C.J. Cron at 31 (55 homers in 265 games between 2018 and 2019).

As for the rotation, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Jon Gray are another year older. They're not winning any Cy Youngs at Coors Field, but the Rockies' staff is a lot more stable than others around the majors.

Colorado will be bad. But 65-win bad? That's disrespectful.

Athletics over 86.5

The year is 2145. The Athletics just cashed their 128th straight win total over as the public continues to undervalue a small-market team filled with good players. You truly hate to see it.

The Athletics went 36-24 during the 2020 shortened season, surpassing their win total of 32.5. The franchise has now soared past its total in four straight campaigns, averaging an impressive .599 winning percentage over the last three.

The Astros took a step back, and the Mariners and Rangers won't be competitive any time soon in the AL West. The A's will coast through the regular season again, and do it while still getting shorted in the win-total department.

Cardinals over 86

Over bettors would be wise to jump on this early, as the number likely won't drop any lower.

The Cardinals have averaged roughly 89 victories over the last seven seasons, often winning with less talent than what's on their current roster. Arenado's arrival is a big boost for a club that can run away with the NL Central, as only the Brewers are projected to finish better than .500, and that's only marginally (82-80).

St. Louis is flawed as a contender, but the team will mow through the regular season.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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