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Signing George Springer: Pros, cons, and predictions

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George Springer is officially a free agent for the first time in his career after rejecting the Houston Astros' one-year, $18.9-million qualifying offer earlier this week. Though he'll be attached to draft-pick compensation, there will be no shortage of teams lining up to land him.

Let's break down some of the pros and cons of signing the outfielder, as well as some potential suitors for his services:

Pros

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Springer has been one of the most reliably elite center fielders in baseball throughout his career, and the fact he hits leadoff is an asset in itself.

The 31-year-old owns a 134 wRC+ since breaking into the league in 2014. That ranks him third among center fielders with at least 700 games played, behind only Mike Trout and Christian Yelich - who have combined for four MVP awards in that time.

That figure pertains to Springer's entire career, though. It isn't a perfect reflection of the three-time All-Star, who has been even better in more recent memory.

Over his last 173 games - his entire 2019 and 2020 campaigns - Springer has hit .284/.376/.576 with 53 homers, equating to a 153 wRC+. Here's the full list of players - regardless of position - who have been better in that span:

Player GP wRC+
Mike Trout 187 175
Nelson Cruz 173 163
Alex Bregman 198 159
Christian Yelich 188 156
Juan Soto 197 155
Anthony Rendon 198 155

Just about the only players reliably better than Springer are perennial MVP candidates (Trout, Yelich, and Alex Bregman), a positionless slugger putting the finishing touches on a potential Hall of Fame-caliber career (Nelson Cruz), and one of the game's best young hitters whose days as a corner outfielder already seem numbered (Juan Soto).

Despite the positional discrepancy, the best comparable to Springer in the table above is probably Anthony Rendon. Springer and Rendon have been roughly the same hitter in recent years, and both third base and center field are considered premium defensive positions. Here's how the two line up in terms of accolades:

Player All-Stars Silver Sluggers WS MVPs
Rendon 1 2 0
Springer 3 2 1

Most importantly, Rendon's free agency is fresh in our collective memories. Rendon hit the open market last winter ahead of his age-30 season, giving him a one-year edge on Springer. The two-time Silver Slugger landed a seven-year, $245-million contract with the Los Angeles Angels, and deservedly so as a 2019 NL MVP finalist.

Here's the amazing thing: Springer's next contract is projected to be worth about half of Rendon's deal. FanGraphs' crowdsourcing pegs the outfielder in the five-year, $110-million range, while MLB Trade Rumors has Springer only slightly richer at $125 million over half a decade.

If things do work out that way, the team signing Springer won't just be adding one of the most reliable hitters in all of baseball at a premium defensive position; his next club will be getting him at a bargain.

A team looking for playoff experience couldn't possibly do better than Springer. Not only is he a World Series MVP, but he seems to elevate his play in every playoff round. For his career, the outfielder has hit .269/.349/.546 with 19 homers over 63 postseason games.

Cons

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Let's talk about cheating.

The Astros' sign-stealing scandal is going to hang over the head of any player from that 2017 squad. It's unfortunate but true. Working in Springer's favor are a couple of things, though.

Unlike some of his teammates, Springer did a great job removing himself from the controversy. When Astros players were effusively pounding their chests about how the scandal was something to overcome and that media were mistreating the team, Springer never seemed close by.

More importantly, Springer raked the past two years. If the assumption is that sign-stealing did benefit some players, the case labeling Springer as one of them is pretty weak. In fact, his .889 OPS in 2017 was worse than his marks in both 2019 (.974) and 2020 (.899). That's not true of Jose Altuve or Carlos Correa.

Still, while Springer plays a premium defensive position, he doesn't exactly do it at an elite level. He has no Gold Gloves, and there's no real reason to believe he'll win one. By Statcast's Outs Above Average, Springer saved one run last year. In 2019, he saved three. He's fine. His defense isn't going to upset anyone, but a move to a corner spot is likely in his future, and it might even need to happen two years into his next contract.

Springer is never bad. His worst season was in 2018 when he hit .265/.346/.434 with 22 homers and a 118 wRC+. But some compare him to Trout and Yelich, and Springer simply doesn't have the ceiling those two possess. His best campaign at the plate was in 2019 when he hit .292/.383/.591 with 39 homers and a 156 wRC+. Trout has never had a season that bad (though he's in a league of his own, anyway). Yelich, meanwhile, has had two better campaigns in terms of wRC+.

Potential suitors

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Atlanta Braves: With the potential loss of Marcell Ozuna in free agency this winter, Atlanta may need to fill a sizeable hole in its lineup. There's also no guarantee the designated hitter returns to the NL; if the Braves opt to bring back Ozuna, they may have to stick him in left field, and he just isn't good there anymore. It makes more sense to sign Springer - who at this point can probably play center better than Ronald Acuna Jr. - instead.

Chicago White Sox: The future of center field on the South Side is Luis Robert; that's indisputable. But Eloy Jimenez showed multiple times in 2020 that he can't be trusted with regular playing time in the outfield. Adam Engel had a nice breakout at the plate and is great defensively, but that leaves the other corner spot. It's currently occupied by Nomar Mazara, who should be considered a non-tender candidate at this point. Springer would bring a veteran presence to an up-and-coming clubhouse, and he's a proven postseason stud.

New York Mets: Under new owner Steve Cohen, every single marquee free agent is going to be at least tenuously tied to the Mets, but there's a legitimate case that Springer is the best fit of any of them. Locking up Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto should be top-priority stuff for the next president of baseball operations, but finding the third outfielder to go with them would go a long way in solidifying the lineup. With Pete Alonso at first base, that does leave Dominic Smith - who had a huge breakout in 2020 - in a precarious position, particularly if the DH does not return in the NL.

Toronto Blue Jays: Rumors are swirling that the Blue Jays want to make some big moves and are already being aggressive in the free-agent market. One of their biggest weaknesses is their outfield, so it seems logical to expect them to address that. Even if Randal Grichuk's 2020 breakout was legit, it wouldn't hurt to move him to a corner spot and tab a better defender in Springer for center field. That would leave one corner spot for Lourdes Gurriel Jr., with DH duties going to Teoscar Hernandez.

Prediction: Springer signs a six-year, $135-million contract with the White Sox.

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