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Max Fried was indeed lights out in Game 1, and the Braves' bats came through late to help us to a small profit Monday. Our 1-1 finish takes us to 2-1 in the championship series.
Here's what's on tap for Tuesday:
Braves (+110) @ Dodgers (-125), 6:05 p.m. ET
Coming off their first loss of the postseason in Game 1, the pressure is on the Dodgers as they get set to face one of the most electric young pitchers in baseball. How does one say enough about how impressive Ian Anderson has been in his rookie season?
A 2.54 FIP to go with a glistening 1.95 ERA in six starts is just the tip of the iceberg. According to Baseball Savant, Anderson was in the 93rd percentile or better among pitchers in xBA (93rd), xwOBA (95th), xERA (95th), xSLG (99th), and barrel percentage (99th). He was a king at inducing weak contact.
He's passed every test with flying colors, and now he's carried his exceptional regular-season form into the playoffs, striking out 17 in 11 2/3 innings in a pair of scoreless starts. The Dodgers' relentless lineup will be a big step up in his first start with spectators in the stands, but this is also a hurler who limited the Yankees to one run in six innings in his MLB debut.
The Dodgers were supposed to trot out Clayton Kershaw in what would have been a fascinating pitching matchup, but they've now scratched the future Hall of Famer due to back spasms. Instead, L.A. will start a rookie of its own in Tony Gonsolin, though at 26 years old, he's no ordinary rookie.
A rotation fill-in for the Dodgers early in the season, Gonsolin forced his way into a permanent spot on the mound after allowing just one earned run in his first four starts. He finished the season strong through September despite a couple of tougher outings, closing out the year with an impressive 2.31 ERA and 2.29 FIP. He had a sparkling .222 wOBA against and owned just a 1.35 BB/9 rate - the 10th-best mark among MLB pitchers with at least 40 innings this season.
That said, Gonsolin gives up a decent amount of hard contact and now faces an Atlanta lineup that absolutely mashes right-handed pitching. The Braves led MLB with a .374 OBP and .498 SLG against righties this season, and their 301 wRC was also tops in the league. With Anderson on the hill for Atlanta and Gonsolin starting on short notice, back the Braves as road 'dogs.
Pick: Braves (+110)
Astros (-110) @ Rays (-110), 8:40 p.m.
With Tyler Glasnow slated to start for the Rays on Wednesday, Tuesday's Game 3 has a must-win feel for the Astros. Houston has struggled to get the bats going thus far in the American League Championship Series, scoring just three runs in two games. The Astros have been seeing the ball relatively well, but it seems to find the glove of a Rays fielder every time they hit it hard - almost as if the BABIP gods are punishing them for cheating.
Now they must try to solve Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough. Among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings this year, Yarbrough allowed the lowest average exit velocity off the bat and ranked sixth in hard-hit percentage allowed, behind a few Cy Young candidates. Combine his ability to induce soft contact with an Astros lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching - Houston slashed just .232/.299/.403 in the regular season - and it's shaping up to be another frustrating night for this lineup.
The Astros will need another strong contribution from the mound to avoid falling into a dreaded 0-3 hole, but can Jose Urquidy be counted upon for that? Don't just look at Urquidy's 2.73 regular-season ERA, which doesn't tell nearly the whole story. The 25-year-old posted a 4.71 FIP (nearly two full runs higher than his ERA) and a miserable 5.36 xFIP, and those numbers seem to be more accurate indicators of what to expect from Urquidy. That's been the case through his two playoff starts, anyway, with regression arriving in the form of a 5.19 ERA and 8.85 FIP.
Urquidy's issue is that he gets hit hard and often. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the bottom quarter of pitchers this season in exit velocity (24th percentile), xwOBA (22nd), xERA (22nd), xSLG (19th), xBA (13th), whiff rate (14th), and strikeout rate (sixth). That spells trouble against a Rays lineup seeing the ball well right now.
Pick: Rays (-110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.