MLB plays of the day: Bet Nola over Fried in pitching duel
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Our luck has run dry as of late after another 0-2 day of MLB picks Thursday. Let's get a winning streak going as we head into the weekend.
Philadelphia Phillies (-110) at Atlanta Braves (-110)
Starting pitchers: Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.05 ERA) vs. Max Fried (3-0, 1.24 ERA)
The headliner on Friday's card features two of the hottest pitchers in baseball. But not all aces are built the same way.
In a tough year for the Braves' pitching staff, Fried has been sterling and deserves praise for stabilizing the rotation. But his pitching style is concerning in this matchup. The 26-year-old isn't known for missing bats, instead relying heavily on soft contact and one of the league's highest ground-ball rates (59.2%).
That approach could be trouble against the second-highest scoring lineup in the majors. The Phillies rank in the top three in xBA (.276), xSLG (.490), and xwOBA (.363), which all measure expected value based on the quality of contact. They also rarely strike out and are among the league's best at avoiding ground balls. Those are all bad signs for a contact-heavy pitcher like Fried.
Nola, on the other hand, has neutralized hitters with elite control and ace-level stuff. He carries a jaw-dropping 37:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.65 WHIP into Friday's contest, both among the best in the bigs. He's thrown 13 straight scoreless innings dating back to his Aug. 10 start against the Braves, when he allowed just two hits with 10 punchouts in eight innings.
Since losing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to injury, Atlanta's lineup has been near the bottom in run production with the league's sixth-highest swinging strike rate (12.9%). The Phillies have a better lineup and a better ace, making them an easy bet at this price.
Pick: Phillies (-110)
Colorado Rockies (+180) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Starting pitchers: Jon Gray (1-2, 5.74 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (0-0, 5.21 ERA)
We've bet on Colorado for two straight nights with no luck, so why not flip the script Friday? Truthfully, we should have jumped ship a while ago. The Rockies were MLB's most profitable team during an 11-3 start, but they've lost nine of their last 11 games behind some overall lousy play.
Here's another brutal stat: The Rockies have been the worst bet in baseball at Dodger Stadium since 2018, owning a 1-13 record straight up and 3-11 record on the run line in their last 14 contests in Los Angeles. Those games weren't particularly close - they were outscored by three runs on average, and eight of the 14 contests were decided by three runs or more.
Buehler hasn't been particularly sharp this year, but he's 4-1 in his last five home starts versus Colorado and is primed for a get-right performance. Nothing is particularly alarming about his profile this year - his velocity and pitch movement are almost identical to last season, as are his hard-hit rate (35.8%) and whiff rate (27%).
Batters simply aren't chasing Buehler's pitches this year, which has affected his entire game. Don't tell that to the Rockies, who have one of MLB's highest chase rates (29.8%) and have struggled to score runs on the road this year. If Buehler can limit the damage, expect the Dodgers' offense to do the rest against a vulnerable starter in Gray.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.