MLB plays of the day: Back Sonny Gray vs. Cardinals

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Our underdog bids came up short Wednesday, as the Rockies and Rangers both fell victim to sloppy bullpen efforts. Let's get back to business with a pair of favorites on Thursday.

Houston Astros (+110) at Colorado Rockies (-130)

Starting pitchers: Cristian Javier (2-1, 2.91 ERA) vs. German Marquez (2-3, 2.25 ERA)

We picked the Rockies to upset the Astros at home Wednesday to no avail. So why go back to the well? Because this pitching matchup is simply too much to pass up.

Javier may be a stud someday, but he's been all over the place in his rookie season. After dazzling against the Dodgers, he's struggled with control in his last three starts, throwing 59% of his pitches for strikes with only 14 swinging strikes. He's thrown a first-pitch strike to just 41.3% of batters, the worst by any player with at least 10 innings pitched.

In his last start against Seattle, Javier threw a first-pitch strike to four of the 19 batters he faced, which won't be enough to survive Thursday's test at Coors Field. The Rockies have a 1.058 OPS when ahead in the count, sixth best in the majors, and are among the best at attacking pitches over the heart of the plate. They'll see plenty of those if Javier falls behind.

Conversely, Marquez boasts the second-best first-pitch strike rate (68.8%) among qualified starters and hasn't given up more than two earned runs in any start this year. The Astros haven't been hitting the ball hard at all this year, so their entire approach at the plate relies on working the count. That'll be difficult against the Rockies ace, whose team has won 10 of his last 14 starts.

Pick: Rockies (-130)

Cincinnati Reds (-140) at Adam Wainwright (+120)

Starting pitchers: Sonny Gray (4-1, 2.05 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (2-0, 1.64 ERA)

Gray has continued to do Cy Young-like things this year for the Reds, and he should have no trouble slicing through the lowest-scoring offense in baseball. He's allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his five starts, and he's fanned at least seven batters in all five appearances for a combined 45 strikeouts - only Shane Bieber (54) has more.

Cincinnati's lineup deserves some attention, too. The Reds are tied for the lowest BABIP (.247) but are still a top-six offense per xwOBA (.345) behind solid contact rates and an unwillingness to swing at bad pitches.

That'll serve them well against Wainwright, who's thrown just 45.3% of his pitches in the zone - his lowest since Statcast started tracking in 2015. Wainwright's walk rate (9.5%) and hard-hit rate (44.8%) are also his worst in that span, so a 4.49 xERA is probably closer to what to expect than his surface-level stats.

Wainwright has averaged 75 pitches in his two starts, so expect the Cardinals' bullpen to make an early appearance. That could spell trouble; the Reds own MLB's best OPS (.847) after the sixth inning. Sooner or later, Cincinnati will break this one open.

Pick: Reds (-140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.