MLB strikeouts leader odds: Cole favored to repeat with new team

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If there's baseball this summer, it'll be a significantly shortened season, which could lead to value on volume-based prop bets.

Today, we'll break down the best bets to be Major League Baseball's strikeouts leader.

Gerrit Cole dazzled in 2019 with 326 strikeouts, the most by any pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2002. It was also only the second time since 2010 that a starter led the majors in strikeouts without pacing their respective league in innings pitched, so this is a prop that generally rewards workload as much as it does efficiency.

Here are the 25 pitchers with the shortest odds to lead MLB in strikeouts this season, with a few names to target as early values:

Based on 75-plus games played

Gerrit Cole (+210)

It's hard to fully endorse anyone but Cole, who won handily last year and is projected to pace the field again this season. His 39.9% strikeout rate was the highest in a single campaign by any qualified starter in MLB history, according to FanGraphs, and his 2018 rate (34.5%) ranks 11th all time.

Four of the last five winners posted a strikeout rate of at least 30% the year before leading the league in strikeouts. Additionally, four of the last five managed at least 300 punchouts in their leading season, something only Cole and Verlander managed in 2019.

If there's any reason to fade Cole, it's a possible lack of work. Seven of the last 11 strikeout kings led the league in innings, and the New York Yankees likely won't push their shiny new pitcher too hard in Year 1 of a long-term deal. However, Cole needs only to do what he already did a season ago to cash at short odds.

Charlie Morton (+2400)

Only four qualified starters posted whiff rates of at least 30%, struck out 10-plus batters per nine innings, and had a FIP below 3.00 last year: Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Morton.

Morton was stellar in 2019, boasting career highs in K/9 (11.10) and strikeout percentage (30.4%). Both numbers were climbing for years - starting in 2016, Morton decreased his use of fastballs and changeups in favor of his curveball, which he threw on a career-high 37.3% of his pitches in 2019.

The result over those four seasons was a sharp drop in contact rate and steep increase in swinging strikes, which eventually led to Morton's "breakout" at age 35 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. Each of the last nine strikeout kings received Cy Young votes, so Morton has the success and stuff to justify taking a shot at longer odds.

Robbie Ray / Matthew Boyd (+5000)

It's hard to pick just one of these two because they both profile perfectly as long shots. Ray (12.1) and Boyd (11.6) were both among the top six in K/9 a year ago, and they both ranked in the top 10 in strikeout rate - Ray at 31.5%, Boyd at 30.2%.

Ray (28) and Boyd (29) are entering the prime age for strikeout leaders, though neither has the standout resume you'd expect from the winner of this prop: 29 of the last 35 strikeout champions were former All-Stars - many with multiple appearances - and 14 were former Cy Young winners.

The Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw made his lone All-Star appearance in 2017 and has posted at least 12 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the last three years. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers left-hander's strikeout rates have improved each of the last three campaigns as he transitioned to a full-time starter. At 50-1 odds, both are easily worth a shot amid an uncertain 2020 season.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.