AL Cy Young: Best bets for a shortened season
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A shortened season will impact starting pitchers in a number of ways, but the important thing to remember when it comes to analyzing the futures market - or season-long fantasy for that matter - is that time is the great equalizer.
It's not uncommon for pitchers on innings limits or with durability concerns to go on impressive runs, but it's unrealistic to expect them to sustain those numbers over the course of 162 games. That changes in a half season.
Randomness increases drastically with a smaller sample size and when the playing field is leveled. Aces who consistently pitch 200+ innings could find themselves with the same workload as young arms that haven't quite been stretched out.
So, it's best to avoid guys like Gerrit Cole (+400) and Justin Verlander (+450) at such short prices, and instead consider the following pitchers who could benefit the most from a short season:
Mike Clevinger (+1400)
Clevinger, of course, isn't one of those younger arms I was alluding to above, but more of an established pitcher. This is a unique situation, though, with the postponement of the start of the season saving the Cleveland Indians starter from missing at least a month after knee surgery in February. Clevinger, 29, also missed a chunk of time last season, with a back injury limiting him to 126 innings.
He's got a terrific arsenal and truly overpowering stuff, with his numbers improving in each of the last three seasons. The issue has been staying on the mound. This delay gives him the chance to get fully healthy, while a shorter schedule will significantly increase his odds of pitching a full season.
Tyler Glasnow (+1600)
There's little doubt Glasnow has a Cy Young repertoire, posting a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 76 strikeouts in 60.2 innings last season before getting hurt. He was absolutely dominant through 12 starts, but durability remains a question mark. Glasnow has never pitched more than 111.2 innings in a MLB campaign, but those concerns would be mitigated in a short season.
He's also entering his age-26 season, which historically has been a big year for a number of pitchers with Glasnow's pedigree who struggled early in their careers while making the transition to the bigs. Tampa Bay Rays teammate Blake Snell made a massive leap in his age-26 season, smashing his previous career high with 180.2 innings pitched en route to winning the Cy Young. A similar uptick in workload for Glasnow and there's every reason to believe he can win it, too.
Jose Berrios (+1600)
I touched on Berrios at length in my five best bets for a shortened season article. The gist of it: Berrios amassed impressive numbers through the first four months of the last two seasons before collapsing in August and September. Fatigue is obviously an issue for the Minnesota Twins' ace, who has a combined 5.22 ERA in August and September of 2018 and 2019. A shortened season offers Berrios the perfect conditions to make a run at the Cy Young, which he was in contention for at the end of July last season with a 2.80 ERA and 10-5 record.
Frankie Montas (+3300)
We don't know that durability is for sure a concern with Montas, but he hasn't pitched more than 136.2 innings in a season before (he hit that mark in 2018 split between MLB and AAA). Last season's breakout campaign was interrupted by an 80-game suspension. Montas likely wouldn't have been on an innings limit this season, but his ability to sustain last year's gaudy numbers through a full season is unknown.
The Oakland Athletics' righty modified his arsenal last year and it proved lethal: he enjoyed a career-best K%, BB%, and GB% (minimum 30 IP), while improving his SwStr% from 8.6 to 11.5.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.