ALCS betting preview: Astros vs. Yankees

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While all hell has broken loose on the other side of the bracket, the American League Championship Series will feature the matchup we've anticipated for months: the Houston Astros versus the New York Yankees in a rematch of their epic 2017 ALCS clash.

The Yankees have vengeance on their minds after falling a game short in 2017, when the Astros went on to win their first-ever World Series title. Both teams won more games this season than two years ago, and they feature even more star power this time around. Can New York end the drought, or will Houston make it 2-for-2?

Series odds

The Astros are -180 favorites to win the ALCS, while the Yankees are +160 underdogs to reach their first Fall Classic since winning it all in 2009. At theScore Bet in New Jersey, Houston is 6-5 to win the World Series and New York is 2-1.

Behind the numbers

While both teams' offenses are prolific - and boy, are they ever prolific - the highlight of this series is clearly the Astros' rotation. The Yankees' staff held its own in the ALDS, allowing just seven runs from the Twins' potent bats. But if Houston's starters are at the top of their game, this series will be over quickly.

Justin Verlander wowed at age 36 with a Cy Young-worthy season, leading MLB in WAR (7.8), wins (21), and hits per nine innings (5.5) with a 2.58 ERA. Gerrit Cole was the king of strikeouts (13.8 K/9) and was phenomenal against the Rays, fanning an ALDS-record 25 batters. And, of course, the venerable Zack Greinke will make his championship-series debut and will likely get the Game 1 nod for Houston.

If the Astros' staff has shown any weakness of late, though, it's been giving up the long ball. Houston's starters allowed just 1.11 home runs per nine innings over the second half of the regular season - the best mark in the AL - but then gave up six of Tampa Bay's seven homers in the ALDS, the second most by any rotation in a series this year.

If the Yankees can get runs on the board early, they should find cracks in an adequate Astros bullpen - though that's a big "if." The inverse applies on the other side: New York's bullpen is arguably the best in the majors, but it might not get the chance to shut things down if Houston works its way through the Yankees' rotation.

The Astros owned the lowest percentage of strikeouts (18.2%) and swinging strikes (8.6%) and the highest OBP (.352) in baseball this year. Houston doesn't lack for power, either, with the third-highest ISO (.221) in MLB behind the Twins and Yankees. The Astros will find their spots early; can New York match wits against Houston's stellar rotation?

Betting trends

Since winning the World Series in 2009, the Yankees have feasted on the Twins while struggling against other teams in the playoffs. They're 7-0 with three series wins against Minnesota and just 15-23 with a 2-6 series record against all other teams, including two series losses to the Astros.

Houston went 4-3 in the 2019 regular season versus New York, though all three losses came with starters who are unlikely to take the mound in this series. Since joining the Astros, Verlander has gone 5-1 against the Yankees and should get two cracks in this series. Cole has gone 1-0 against New York as an Astro, while Greinke has yet to face the pinstripes while wearing orange and navy.

The Yankees were 21-9 (70%) this season when facing a starter with a sub-3.00 ERA - the second-best mark behind Houston (15-4, 78.9%) - and they've won 11 straight entering this series. Unsurprisingly, all three Astros aces sport a sub-3.00 ERA.

Pick

It doesn't get much closer than a matchup like this, which suggests taking the plus-money side and riding the Yankees to the World Series. And, truthfully, there's nothing wrong with that. New York is the team with the best chance of challenging the Astros' Goliath staff, and its deep 'pen can protect a lead if the bats get hot early.

The safer bet, though, is Houston at home. The Yankees will have to steal at least three wins off Verlander, Cole, and Greinke to have a chance, and at least two of those contests will come in Houston, where the Astros are a league-best 63-21 (75%) this year. Houston showed its championship mettle two years ago and is the rightful favorite in this matchup.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.