ALDS betting preview: Astros vs. Rays

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There was nothing wild about the AL wild-card game.

In a game that lacked drama, the Tampa Bay Rays cruised to an easy 5-1 win over the Oakland Athletics. Now, their reward is a date with the best team in baseball, the Houston Astros. Do the Rays have a shot in this American League Division Series?

Series odds

It's no surprise to see the oddsmakers' World Series pick, the Astros, be listed as the biggest favorite in this round. Houston is sitting at -275 to win the ALDS over Tampa Bay, which is priced at +225 to advance.

Behind the numbers

There are maybe a handful of teams in the majors that could even dream of going blow for blow with the Astros' pitching staff, and the Rays are one of them.

Anchored by a lethal front three - Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke - Houston led MLB with a 10.28 K/9 rate while ranking second with a 2.76 BB/9 mark. Meanwhile, the Rays finished third in both categories. In terms of ERA, these teams were neck and neck, with the Astros at 3.66 and the Rays at 3.67.

However, it appears the Astros' staff was more fortunate in a variety of ways. Tampa led the majors in fielding independent pitching (FIP) with a 3.65 mark that placed well ahead of Houston's 3.98, suggesting the latter's ERA could be due for some regression. The Astros also benefited from an MLB-low .270 BABIP against - the Rays were unluckier at .290 - which played a role in the discrepancy between their FIP and ERA. Finally, Houston's 76.8% strand rate was the highest in baseball this season, which may not be sustainable.

At an individual level, Rays starter Tyler Glasnow has been lights-out since being activated off the DL. Charlie Morton is also a stud, while Yonny Chirinos, Emilio Pagan, Ryan Yarbrough, and Diego Castillo are great arms and offer excellent versatility. Above all, Blake Snell could be the X-factor. He's posted mixed results this season and has struggled in limited action since returning from his latest IL stint, but if he can rediscover his Cy Young form in this series, the Rays could give the Astros a legitimate scare.

But while Tampa can compete in an arms race, the question is whether it has the bats to keep up. The Astros ranked third in the majors this season in home runs and runs scored, while the Rays were last in both categories among AL playoff teams. Houston also led the league in OPS, slugging, and wOBA while striking out less than any other team. That continued in September, as the Astros led MLB in home runs, runs, OBP, and slugging during the last month of the regular season.

The one thing the Rays did well was stealing bases. Tampa swiped more bags than any other AL playoff team, and they'll need to be aggressive on the basepaths in this series to trouble Houston's pitching.

Another factor is that the Rays' lineup is heating up. Having Brandon Lowe back should help a great deal, Austin Meadows may have been the best hitter in baseball during September, and Ji-Man Choi has been scorching hot. In fact, almost the entirety of Tampa Bay's lineup has seen an increase in exit velocity over the past month. We saw it in the wild-card game with Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, and Tommy Pham all smacking balls over the fence.

Betting trends

The Astros hardly broke a sweat in the ALDS over the past two seasons, beating the Cleveland Indians in three games last year and the Boston Red Sox in four in 2017. On the other hand, they struggled against the Rays this season, posting a 3-4 record against Tampa that included a 1-3 mark at Tropicana Field. Over the last three years, the Rays have gone 12-9 against the Astros, which should give them some confidence.

Tampa is also returning to the postseason for the first time since 2013 when it lost 3-1 to the Red Sox. The Rays have lost their last three appearances in the ALDS.

Houston, which will host Games 1 and 2 (and potentially Game 5) of this series, won more games at home than any other team this season. Tampa posted identical 48-33 records at home and away this year.

Pick

There's no doubt Tampa has the pitching to compete. The bats are also heating up at the right time. Still, Houston might be too powerful. Again, Astros pitchers registered the most strikeouts of any team this season, while their hitters struck out less than anyone else. That's a pretty fantastic indicator of future success.

Of course, there won't be much value in backing the favored Astros at any point in this postseason. So, if you're looking for value, the Rays offer a tasty ROI, and they have the tools in place to pull off the upset. We've also seen in the past that October baseball can be wildly unpredictable.

That being said, it's hard to envision Houston losing in these playoffs. Despite the lack of value, the Astros are my terribly unsexy pick to win the World Series.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.