ALDS betting preview: Yankees vs. Twins

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All eyes are on the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series chase. But don't forget about the New York Yankees, who enter Friday's American League Division Series versus the Minnesota Twins as baseball's biggest series favorite.

If you like power, you'll love this matchup, which features MLB's top two leaders in runs and home runs. Can either pitching staff rise to the occasion, or will every game be a race to 10 runs?

Series odds

The Yankees are whopping -260 favorites over the Twins - the biggest line of any division series as of Wednesday. Minnesota is +210 to avenge its playoff woes against New York, which has ended five of the Twins' past six postseason trips. Which leads us to our first major trend...

Behind the numbers

The Yankees have absolutely owned Minnesota in the playoffs this century. Since beating Oakland in the 2002 ALDS, the Twins are 3-20 in playoff games with seven straight series losses. Five of those series losses - and 13 of the single-game losses - came at the hands of the Bronx Bombers.

But this is a different Minnesota team. The Twins won 100 games for the second time in team history this season, thanks largely to eight hitters with at least 20 home runs - the most in MLB. Their deep arsenal of bats will prove crucial in this series, with five lineup regulars - including young slugger Max Kepler - uncertain ahead of Friday's opener.

The Yankees have been ravaged by injuries this year but appear mostly healthy heading into Friday, with veteran designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion and likely Game 1 starter James Paxton both expected to be full-go for this series. Paxton spearheads a versatile pitching staff with a deep bullpen featuring Aroldis Chapman, who's allowed just one run through 15 1/3 innings since the start of August.

Yet, in a series headlined by two potent lineups, the numbers favor Minnesota's staff. The Twins' starters ranked third in the American League in WAR (7.1) after the All-Star break, while the bullpen ranked first (4.8). The Yankees allowed the third-most home runs per nine innings (1.76) among AL teams this season; the Twins allowed the second-fewest (1.22).

Isn't that ballpark-specific, you ask? New York was also tied for the AL lead in home runs allowed away from home (1.69) while Minnesota allowed the sixth-fewest (1.27) on the road.

Betting trends

New York has obviously been the team to bet in playoff series between these clubs, but the Yankees have had their way with Minnesota in the regular season, too. Since their ALDS meeting in 2010, New York is 43-19 straight up (69.4%) against the Twins, including a 24-9 mark since 2015 and a 4-2 record this season.

But none of those contests featured Minnesota's potential Game 1 starter, Jose Berrios, who led the Twins to a 19-13 record in his starts and managed four wins in his last six. Minnesota also went 36-16 (69.2%) in the first games of series this year, including 8-4 with Berrios on the mound; a typical Berrios showing Friday - if he gets the nod - could swing the series.

Home-field advantage looms large in a five-game series, and New York boasted MLB's third-best home record (57-24) in 2019. The Twins, however, were the best road team in baseball with a remarkable 55-26 record, and they won 54.5% of their matchups as away 'dogs (18-15).

In the American League playoffs, betting the underdog on a game-by-game basis has netted a 16.1% return on investment since 2014, including a whopping 42.2% in last year's postseason. Since beating the Twins in the 2010 playoffs, the Yankees are 16-23 straight up in the postseason with an unprofitable 12-12 record as favorites.

Pick

Only three players appeared in more than 125 games for Minnesota this year, which is both a credit to the team's depth and a warning of its lack of star power. Still, the Twins' staff has outshined the Yankees' pitchers this year, and their lineup has just as much pop if everyone is healthy.

Throw two power-heavy teams into a hitter-friendly park and the odds go out the window. Such circumstances favor the heavy 'dog, so take a shot on the Twins on the series line or game-by-game in what should be one of the more thrilling series of this postseason.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.