Shane Bieber is baseball's best road bet
Trevor Bauer neutralized a red-hot Seattle Mariners offense Monday, allowing one run on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in the Cleveland Indians' 6-4 win. It doesn't get much easier Tuesday for the Mariners' offense, which will face one of the best pitchers no one knows about: right-hander Shane Bieber, who's been a safe bet when he pitches on the road.
Line: Indians -115 / Mariners -105
Total: 8 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Bettors and fantasy players alike are infatuated with home-road splits. It shouldn't be surprising for an athlete to perform better at home, but baseball is different because of one glaring component: park factors.
Over the last three seasons, Progressive Field in Cleveland was the fourth-most hitter-friendly park in the majors, according to FantasyPros. That's bad news for pitchers, including Bieber, who's looked pedestrian at home since debuting last season.
| Record | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | Opp. BA | Opp. SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | 5.56 | 1.436 | 9.2 | .308 | .504 |
On the road is where Bieber has been a cash cow for bettors - Cleveland is a perfect 8-0 in his last eight starts and 10-2 overall since the 23-year-old was inserted into the rotation in 2018. Get Bieber away from Progressive Field and he's been lights out.
| Record | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | Opp. BA | Opp. SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.25 | 1.125 | 9.6 | .239 | .387 |
Now, the fun part: Seattle's T-Mobile Park will be the most pitcher-friendly stadium that Bieber's ever started in. It's 26th in the majors for weighted runs created over the last three seasons and 24th in 2019. Here's a look at Bieber's performance as a starter in parks that are considered pitcher-friendly (1.000 is the baseline for park factor runs; anything below is considered a pitcher's park).
| Stadium | Park Factor Runs | IP | H | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 0.924 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Guaranteed Rate Field | 0.958 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tropicana Field | 0.905 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Guaranteed Rate Field (2) | 0.958 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 |
That's four quality starts, 13 hits, and one (!) earned run over 25 1/3 innings in pitcher-friendly venues.
The not-so-fun part: The Mariners' offense has come out firing on all cylinders to the tune of 6.8 runs per game. However, it's finally being tested after facing four teams - Oakland, Boston, Chicago, and Kansas City - that rank in the bottom half of baseball in team ERA.
Don't be intimidated. If you're looking for an undervalued road favorite, Bieber and the Tribe are your best bet.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.