Signing Craig Kimbrel: Pros, cons, and predictions

In this six-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class, and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at Craig Kimbrel, a seven-time All-Star who spent the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox.

Pros/cons

He's still an elite closer

If signing a closer to a multi-year deal in free agency isn't your cup of tea, keep Kimbrel's resume in mind. Over the past three campaigns, only Kenley Jansen, Edwin Diaz, and Aroldis Chapman are worth more WAR among relievers. He has been good for 31 or more saves every season of his career, strikes out a ton of hitters (13.9 SO/9 in 2018), and limited the opposition to a .146 average this past season. Kimbrel is also cold as ice and owns the ninth. In high-leverage situations last year, hitters managed just a .501 OPS and in the ninth, they could only muster an OPS+ of 48. MLB's active saves leader also finished fourth in Win Probability Added (3.66) among relief pitchers last season, which proves the 30-year-old right-hander remains a positive contributor to his team's success.

But his value is decreasing

Let's not be hasty. Kimbrel is good; since he debuted in 2010, no reliever has been more valuable (19.0 WAR), but two of his worst seasons came in the past three years, and he looked human during the postseason when he allowed eight earned runs and walked nine in 14 innings. In 2018, Kimbrel's strikeout rate was his lowest since playing in San Diego, his walk rate exceeded four per nine, and his seven home runs allowed were a career high. His 3.13 FIP among relievers ranked 46th in baseball - behind Drew VerHagen, Dylan Floro, and Ken Giles. His velocity also tailed off by about 1 mph and should continue to dip as he gets older.

And he'll be expensive

Kimbrel remains valuable at 30 years of age and he'll certainly command a long-term deal, which can be risky business. With Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Wade Davis setting the market value for closers of similar effectiveness, someone will overpay for Kimbrel. However, for every Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman (pitchers who amassed saves into their late 30s and early 40s), there have been B.J. Ryans and Heath Bells (closers who were grossly overpaid and regressed after signing). And as the San Francisco Giants are learning with Mark Melancon's current deal, spending big bucks for a pitcher to throw one inning, no matter how important it may seem, is a gamble that can quickly become regrettable.

Best fits

Boston Red Sox

The World Series champions need a closer. As it stands, they'd enter next season with unproven candidates Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes as their top choices. Kimbrel did reject Boston's qualifying offer, but he did so to earn a more lucrative contract and not necessarily because he doesn't want to play in Beantown. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski isn't shy when it comes to spending owner John Henry's money, so a reunion with Kimbrel wouldn't be surprising.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals haven't had much success signing relievers to free-agent deals over the past few seasons - Greg Holland and Brett Cecil immediately come to mind. While Jordan Hicks looks like the real deal, he's only 22 and has just six career saves. Bud Norris saved 28 games for them in 2018 but doesn't look like a long-term solution, and Carlos Martinez is expected to return to a starting role in spring training. Signing Kimbrel could provide a stopgap in the ninth. He's allowed just eight earned runs in 57 1/3 innings against NL Central teams (not including the Cardinals) during his career.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are expected to spend serious dollars during the offseason and they're reportedly showing interest in Kimbrel. Philadelphia threw save opportunities at 10 different players last season, so some stability in the ninth would be welcomed. Money might be best saved for runs at Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, however, as the club has a greater need at shortstop and in the outfield.

Prediction

Kimbrel signs a five-year, $90-million deal with the Phillies.