Midseason awards: AL's biggest surprises, disappointments
As evidenced by the Seattle Mariners' seemingly plausible playoff bid, baseball is wonderfully and maddeningly unpredictable. Sometimes, teams and individuals exceed expectations. Other times, they fail to meet them. Therein lies the beauty. If preordained outcomes are your thing, go watch basketball.
So, with ample time for reflection now that the season is on pause until Friday, let's look at the most surprising and disappointing individual performances from each American League team through the first half of the 2018 campaign.
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest surprise: Manny Machado. Sure, Machado has been one of the game's brightest stars for a while now, but he's never been better-than-Paul-Goldschmidt good, offensively. Even with incessant trade rumors harshing his mellow, Machado boasts career-highs in average (.315), OBP (.387), and slugging percentage (.575), with a higher wRC+ (156) than Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Nelson Cruz, and Jose Altuve.
Biggest disappointment: Chris Davis. Except Machado, virtually every man on the active roster has a case here, but no player distinguished himself more disgracefully than Davis, whose wRC+ (35) - the worst in the majors - barely exceeds his number of multi-strikeout games (34).
Boston Red Sox
Biggest surprise: Eduardo Rodriguez. Following three okay-ish seasons, Rodriguez is starting to look like the top-of-the-rotation guy he was once heralded as. He's trimmed his hard-contact rate by more than five percent from 2017 and cut down his walk rate significantly, too, en route to a career-best 3.44 ERA and the lowest FIP (3.56) among Red Sox starters not named Chris Sale.
Biggest disappointment: Jackie Bradley Jr. His work in center field remains terrific, but superlative defense is non-negotiable when you're getting out-hit by Dee Gordon. Even with significant improvement over the last few weeks (.925 OPS since June 24), Bradley Jr.'s 73 wRC+ still ranks seventh-last among AL hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.
Chicago White Sox
Biggest surprise: Matt Davidson. With improved plate discipline, Davidson has been able to tap into his considerable power, smashing 14 homers and 14 doubles through 74 games en route to a respectable .768 OPS (113 OPS+).
Biggest disappointment: Lucas Giolito. The young right-hander's first full season in the bigs has been an unmitigated disaster, as Giolito - once the game's consensus top pitching prospect - ranks dead last among qualified starters in ERA (6.18), WAR (-0.7), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.05).
Cleveland Indians
Biggest surprise: Trevor Bauer. The endless tinkering has finally paid off, as the eccentric right-hander leads all major-league pitchers in WAR (5.1), boasting a career-best 2.24 ERA and 31.4 percent strikeout rate while allowing just six home runs over 136 1/3 innings.
Biggest disappointment: Edwin Encarnacion. Don't let those 22 homers fool you. The veteran slugger has essentially been a league-average hitter (104 OPS+) due to his waning power and increasing on-base woes, and since he doesn't provide any defensive value, he's been only slightly better than replacement-level (0.4 WAR) this season.
Detroit Tigers
Biggest surprise: Jordan Zimmermann. Now in the third season of a five-year, $110-million deal, Zimmermann is finally beginning to resemble his former self. Though he missed time early on with a shoulder impingement, Zimmermann has already accrued his most WAR (1.6) since 2015, managing a 3.71 ERA (119 ERA+) over 12 starts amid a huge jump in his strikeout rate.
Biggest disappointment: Victor Martinez. Asked in April about the possibility of retiring when his contract expires this fall, Martinez admitted that he's ready to call it quits. His bat, it seems, already has. The soon-to-be 40-year-old has been a sinkhole in the middle of the Tigers' lineup this year, putting up a career-worst .587 OPS (60 OPS+) with only 14 extra-base hits in 86 games.
Houston Astros
Biggest surprise: Max Stassi. Despite receiving just 182 plate appearances so far, Stassi ranks seventh among all big-league catchers in WAR (1.4) thanks to his big-time pop (.204 ISO) and elite framing skills.
Biggest disappointment: Marwin Gonzalez. After putting up the finest season of his career in 2017, Gonzalez has been only a smidge better than replacement-level this year, managing his lowest OPS (.660) since 2013 along with a team-worst -0.92 win probability added.
Kansas City Royals
Biggest surprise: Jorge Soler. Though he's been sidelined since mid-June with a foot injury, the highly-touted Soler was breaking out before hitting the disabled list. He's put up an .820 OPS (125 wRC+) and .202 ISO through 61 games thanks to a marked improvement in his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.
Biggest disappointment: Jake Junis. Lots of deserving candidates, but Junis takes the cake thanks to a nightmarish sophomore season in which he's allowed 24 home runs in 101 2/3 innings. He has allowed multiple round-trippers in six of his 17 starts, with four three-homer outings and one calamitous five-homer start against the Chicago White Sox in April. Trevor Bauer, to contrast, has allowed six home runs all year. Naturally, Junis' 5.49 FIP is second-worst among qualified starters.
Los Angeles Angels
Biggest surprise: Tyler Skaggs. Entering 2018, Skaggs owned a 4.59 ERA (86 ERA+) for his career and had only once eclipsed 100 innings in a season. This year, the 27-year-old left-hander owns a 2.57 ERA (159 ERA+), a career-best strikeout rate (26.1 percent), his highest ground-ball rate (47.9 percent) since 2014, and is on pace to throw around 185 innings.
Biggest disappointment: Kole Calhoun. The only American League hitters scuffling harder than Calhoun - whose current OBP (.237) is considerably worse than Zack Greinke's career mark (.263) - are Chris Davis and Alcides Escobar, which ... yikes. Consider, too, that Mike Trout has more than twice as many three-hit games (11) as Calhoun has doubles (5).
Minnesota Twins
Biggest surprise: Eddie Rosario. Quietly, Rosario has blossomed into one of the game's top players, following up his impressive 2017 campaign with a superb first half in which he's accrued 3.6 WAR, tying him for 13th-most in the majors. He's also the first Twins player to hit .300 with at least 19 homers before the All-Star Break since Justin Morneau in 2009.
Biggest disappointment: Miguel Sano. Twelve months removed from his first career All-Star appearance, Sano finds himself suiting up for the Fort Myers Miracle. He was demoted to the High-A Florida State League in June following a miserable start in which he hit just .203/.207/.405, while striking out in more than 40 percent of his plate appearances.
New York Yankees
Biggest surprise: Gleyber Torres. Everyone knew Torres would be good, but nobody could've expected him to be this good this fast. The precocious infielder - who owns a .905 OPS (140 OPS+) with 15 homers in 63 games - is on pace to put up the best offensive season by a 21-year-old since Mike Trout hit .323/.432/.557 in 2013.
Biggest disappointment: Sonny Gray. Truthfully, Gray hasn't pitched as poorly as his 5.46 ERA suggests - a 4.34 FIP isn't horrific, after all - but his waning ability to induce ground balls (career-worst 47.6 percent GB rate) and struggles with runners on (.385 wOBA) are legitimately concerning.
Oakland Athletics
Biggest surprise: Trevor Cahill. Before joining the Athletics, Cahill hadn't been an effective starter in a half-decade. Somehow, though, the journeyman right-hander owns a 3.10 ERA (132 ERA+) through nine starts with Oakland, boasting the fourth-highest ground-ball rate (59.7 percent) among pitchers with at least 50 IP, and a lower expected wOBA (.323) than Stephen Strasburg and Zack Greinke.
Biggest disappointment: Jonathan Lucroy. His decline hasn't halted in Oakland, where the two-time All-Star - who averaged an .820 OPS from 2012-2016 and enjoyed a really strong second half last year - has managed career-worsts in OBP (.297) and slugging percentage (.312) while belting just one home run in 73 games.
Seattle Mariners
Biggest surprise: Denard Span. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in May, Span hasn't stopped raking since arriving in Seattle, hitting .310/.350/.492 in 38 games as their primary left fielder. Since his May 28 debut, Span's 132 wRC+ ranks second on the team, behind only Nelson Cruz.
Biggest disappointment: Felix Hernandez. Sadly, the King's fall from grace has continued in 2018, as the 32-year-old right-hander owns career-worsts in ERA (5.13), swinging-strike rate (8.2 percent), and ground-ball rate (45.7 percent) over 105 1/3 innings, making him the Mariners' least-effective starter.
Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest surprise: Daniel Robertson. No longer burdened by the expectations that came with him in the 2015 trade that sent Ben Zobrist to Oakland, Robertson has broken out, managing a team-high 2.2 WAR with a .384 OBP, which, coincidentally, is four one-hundredths higher than Zobrist's 2018 mark.
Biggest disappointment: Kevin Kiermaier. For a second straight season, Kiermaier landed on the 60-day disabled list before the All-Star break, and he's been scuffling since rejoining the club in late-June, managing a meager .558 OPS with just two multi-hit games in 23 contests.
Texas Rangers
Biggest surprise: Shin-Soo Choo. Following two straight sub-par seasons, Choo has righted the ship, tapping into unforeseen power - with 18 homers already, he's only four shy of his career-high - while continuing to get on base at an elite rate (.405 OBP). Currently, Choo has reached base safely in 51 straight contests thanks to a highly selective approach that has produced his highest walk rate (14.9 percent) since 2013.
Biggest disappointment: Joey Gallo. Between his contact issues (he owns the highest strikeout rate among qualified hitters, at 36.2 percent) and his inability/unwillingness to exploit the shift, Gallo is on pace to become just the second player ever to hit 40+ homers as a 23-year-old and follow it up with a below-average offensive season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Biggest surprise: Justin Smoak. Skepticism abounded that Smoak would be able to replicate his impressive numbers from last year's breakout season, but the 31-year-old has delivered, leading all qualified AL first basemen in wRC+ (130) thanks to a more selective approach that has fueled a career-best walk rate (15.2 percent) and OBP (.364).
Biggest disappointment: Josh Donaldson. Separate shoulder and calf ailments have limited the former AL MVP to just 36 games, and Donaldson - who last played May 28 - hasn't looked good in his limited action, either, eking out his worst OPS (.757), isolated power (.190), strikeout rate (27.7 percent), and soft-contact rate (20.2 percent) since becoming an everyday player in 2013.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)