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Squad Up Daily MLB Late Fantasy Dose: Dodgers are far from dogs vs. Arrieta

Joe Camporeale / Reuters

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily MLB fantasy picture for the seven-game slate beginning at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, May 26:

Hitter Stacks

  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Jake Arrieta): Arrieta is coming off just his second scoreless outing of the season. In fact, it was just the second in game which he allowed fewer than three earned runs and the fourth in which he didn't give up a homer. Left-handed hitters continue to mash, hitting .284/.370/.513 with a .375 wOBA.
3-player stack: SS Corey Seager (50K), OF Cody Bellinger (33K), C Yasmani Grandal (46K)
  • Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (LHP Matthew Boyd): Game 2 of the White Sox/Tigers doubleheader features a projected run line of 9.5. With Boyd starting for the Tigers and inexperienced RHP Tyler Danish starting for the White Sox, the over seems like the best choice. Boyd is walking 4.02 hitters per nine and allowing 1.34 home runs. The White Sox own the fourth-ranked team wOBA versus left-handed pitching.
3-player stack: 1B Jose Abreu (57K), OF Avisail Garcia (51K), SS Tim Anderson (40K)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (RHP Junior Guerra): The Diamondbacks lead MLB with a .356 team wOBA and a .204 ISO versus right-handed pitching. They lose the benefit of Chase Field in Arizona but remain in a very hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee. Guerra pitched just three innings in his first start of the season, striking out four but allowing a two-run homer. He's unlikely to go deep in this one.
3-player stack: OF David Peralta (54K), 1B Paul Goldschmidt (67K), SS Chris Owings (46K)

Pitcher Breakdown

  • TARGET - LHP Hector Santiago (82K), Twins (vs. Rays): The Rays 28.6 percent team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching is easily the worst in baseball. Santiago has completed seven innings just once this season and his strikeout rate is a lackluster 5.94 per nine innings, but the generous opponent propels his ceiling at a reasonable cost to owners.
  • BARGAIN - RHP Antonio Senzatela (36K), Rockies (vs. Cardinals): Senzatela sees a dramatic drop in his salary whenever he starts at home, as do all pitchers starting at Coors Field. Unlike those other pitchers, Senzatela has been unaffected by the thin atmosphere so far in his career. His home ERA is 3.77 through 31 innings, just .25 points higher than it is on the road.
  • FADE - RHP Jake Arrieta (106K), Cubs (at Dodgers): Arrieta's struggles were noted above, but they'll be exaggerated in a matchup with a Dodgers team ranked sixth in team wOBA vs. right handers. The Dodgers' 35.2 percent hard-hit rate ranks sixth in baseball, while Arrieta is giving up a career-worst 32.0 percent rate.
  • CONTRARIAN - LHP Jaime Garcia (65K), Braves (at Giants): The Giants fare slightly better against left-handers than they do against righties, but they still rank 27th in team wOBA. They strike out in a moderate 20.3 percent of plate appearances, but they walk in just 7.2 percent. Garcia is coming off his best start of the season in which he struck out eight and walked none over eight innings.

Bargain Plays

  • OF Albert Almora Jr. (35K), Cubs (at Dodgers): While Almora has not been used in a platoon role for the Cubs, he should be. He is hitting just .197 through 65 plate appearances vs. right-handers, but he is slashing .353/.436/.588 off lefties. Both of his homers have come against southpaws.
  • 2B Jonathan Schoop (40K), Orioles (at Astros): Schoop's power has subsided since last season, but he has become a much better hitter vs. right handers. He has drawn four walks to 21 strikeouts in 121 plate appearances. He is slashing .291/.331/.518 in the split, well up from career rates of .263/.293/.466. Astros RHP Joe Musgrove is allowing opposing righties to slug .552.
  • C Derek Norris (41K), Rays (at Twins): Formerly a noted lefty killer, Norris has struggled to a .179 batting average vs. his preferred handedness this season. His career slash line against lefties remains .272/.350/.450 and his strikeout rate drops to 20.8 percent from 26.9 percent against right handers.

Top Fades

  • 1B Miguel Cabrera (66K), Tigers (at White Sox): Avoid the highest-priced Tigers hitter in the second half of their doubleheader. Even if Cabrera suits up for both games, or just the second game, the Tigers are assured to rest at least a couple key players. A depleted supporting cast would lower Cabrera's ceiling.
  • SS Trevor Story (45K), Rockies (vs. Cardinals): Story has struck out in 36 of 84 at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season. He has hit three home runs and drawn 14 walks, but Cardinals RHP Carlos Martinez has struck out 34 of the 117 right-handed hitters he has faced. Martinez has limited righties to eight extra-base hits, lessening Story's chances of a big play mitigating the negative fantasy points.
  • OF Stephen Piscotty (60K), Cardinals (at Rockies): Piscotty's hard-hit percentage is a dismal 13.6 percent in May while he puts 54.5 percent of batted balls on the ground. He has just one extra-base hit in May and is unlikely to be aided by even the Colorado atmosphere.

Contrarian Plays

  • OF Dexter Fowler (60K), Cardinals (at Rockies): Fowler's hard-hit percentage has risen to 47.5 percent and his fly-ball rate sits at 52.5 percent in May. He has just one extra-base hit since May 17, but he is set up to take advantage of the Coors Field factors.
  • 3B Manny Machado (57K), Orioles (at Astros): Machado is slugging just .395 against right-handed pitching with only 11 extra-base hits in 124 at-bats in the split. He could see a boost with Musgrove's aforementioned struggles against righty hitters. Machado's 47.9 percent pull rate against righty pitchers lines up well at Minute Maid Park.
  • SS Tim Beckham (43K), Rays (at Twins): Beckham has not been a major part of the the Rays strikeout problems vs. lefties, as he has just 16 Ks in 48 at-bats against southpaws. Just drawn four walks, but he has just one homer and one double in what should be the strong side of his split. Santiago has held righty hitters to a .256 wOBA this season, but they own a .323 rate over his career, while Beckham owns a .313 against lefties.

For up-to-the-minute starting lineups, check out Baseball Press.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)

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