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FIFA rankings review could lose 'loophole' used by top seed Poland

KAREN MINASYAN / AFP / Getty

FIFA's pledge to review its World Ranking system could spell an end to countries that don't play many friendly matches being given generous scores.

"FIFA is reviewing the FIFA World Ranking system and will take a decision after the completion of qualification for the 2018 FIFA World Cup if any changes are be made to improve the ranking," the governing body announced recently, according to Reuters.

Poland's place among the top seeds for next summer's World Cup in Russia, above Spain in the second pot, caused alarm, especially considering la Furia Roja's dominant qualification showing, and proud history in recent tournaments.

Related: Pots determined for World Cup draw

A key reason cited for Poland's high ranking is it played just one friendly between Euro 2016 and November's international break. Following the procedure used to calculate points, playing friendlies dilutes the average number of points gathered per match, and consequently has a negative bearing on the country's ranking.

Per FIFA's explanation of how it ranks countries, the points accrued per match are figured out by multiplying four criteria:

  • The points of a match result (three for a win, one for a draw, none for a win)
  • The importance of a match (from one for a friendly, to a World Cup match holding the greatest value at four)
  • Strength of opposing team (World Cup champion Germany holds top spot out of the 200, so represents 200 points; facing bottom-placed Montserrat is worth just one point)
  • Strength of confederation (1.00 for CONMEBOL, 0.99 for UEFA, 0.85 for AFC/CAF/OFC/CONCACAF)

So, using the ranking, a World Cup qualification draw with Scotland would yield 423.225 points, but a commendable friendly draw with Germany would then lower that average due to its score of only 198 points.

The disparity in average points collected by a team that plays friendlies and one that appears to avoid them is evident when comparing the numbers of Spain and Poland. Spain's average points garnered per match stands at 651.02, while Poland's solely competitive schedule was rewarded with an average of 789.59. As a result, Poland is likelier to get a much kinder draw at the 2018 World Cup despite an inferior record during qualification, and a substantially weaker record in recent competitions overall.

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