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The final countdown: Assessing Juventus and Napoli's Serie A chances

Tullio Puglia / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Juventus is now four points clear of Napoli atop the Serie A standings after the Old Lady bested Atalanta 2-0 in Wednesday's make-up match.

Both Juventus and Napoli now have 10 matches remaining in Serie A, and with Italy host to the sole crowded title chase among Europe's top-five leagues, 30 points are in play for the two sides before the May 20 finale.

Juventus has won the Scudetto six times on the bounce, snatching the country's top footballing prize by an average margin of 8.3 points. During that stretch, Napoli has twice finished runner-up, losing out in 2011-12 by a scant four points, and in 2014-15 by a whopping 17.

The Partenopei have captured the Italian league on just two occasions, and not since 1989-90. Maurizio Sarri's lot is looking to regain its form after starting the campaign with a dozen victories and two draws. It's the opposite for Juventus, which lost twice in its opening 13 fixtures to hand Napoli an early advantage.

Since then, the Turin outfit has not lost in the league, including a 1-0 win over Napoli at the Stadio San Paolo on Dec. 1. Max Allegri's charges have been outstanding in defence, conceding just once since topping their title rival in Campania.

With 10 matches to play, here's a look at the road ahead for Juventus and Napoli to help determine which heavyweight is more likely to claim Scudetto silverware.

Why Juventus should win Serie A

Considering pedigree and form, on paper, Juventus is the favourite to capture its 34th top-flight title. Allegri and Co. have won a dozen league matches on the bounce, outscoring opponents 28-1 over that stretch (shoutout to former Bianconero Martin Caceres, whose goal for Hellas Verona is the sole blemish).

Juventus also has the experience of a side accustomed to winning Serie A. Of Allegri's first-team regulars, only Mattia De Sciglio, Federico Bernardeschi, Douglas Costa, and Blaise Matuidi were not in the squad for last year's Scudetto. The last two have won numerous top-flight titles with Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, respectively, so it's not exactly uncharted waters for the influential pairing.

The Old Lady is remarkably fit at the moment too, with just Juan Cuadrado, Benedikt Howedes, and Bernardeschi out through injury - and only the latter sticks out as a significant exclusion. At the moment, it all appears rather peachy for Juventus.

What could stand in Juventus' way

Juventus and Napoli have similar schedules, but the six-time defending champ must compete on multiple fronts.

Home Away Previous Result Degree of Difficulty
SPAL Juventus 4-1 W Low
Juventus Milan 2-0 W High
Benevento Juventus 2-1 W Low
Juventus Sampdoria 3-2 L High
Crotone Juventus 3-0 W Low
Juventus Napoli 1-0 W High
Inter Juventus 0-0 D High
Juventus Bologna 3-0 W Medium
Roma Juventus 1-0 W High
Juventus Hellas Verona 3-1 W Low

Juventus played in two of the last three Champions League finals and is no stranger to complications during a busy run-in. Last season, during a stretch where Barcelona was bounced at the quarter-final stage and Monaco in the last four, the Old Lady won six of its final 10 Serie A matches. During that spell, Allegri's side lost to runner-up Roma and played a part in three draws. That's a 21-point haul out of a possible 30. Meanwhile, Roma - which exited the Europa League in the last 16, weeks earlier - collected 25 points over the last 10 matches to draw within four points of Juventus.

Comparing last season's final 10 matches to those featured above, Juventus - which made the Coppa Italia this season and last - confronts a more challenging run-in than it did a year ago.

Why Napoli should win Serie A

When Napoli slumped out of the Europa League courtesy of a shocking first-leg home defeat to continental debutant RB Leipzig, it allowed the club to focus solely on ending a 28-year wait for Serie A silverware. I Ciucciarelli responded by outclassing Cagliari 5-0, then slumped to a 4-2 defeat to Roma at the Stadio San Paolo.

After a stellar start to the campaign, buoyed by an electric attack and the goal-scoring exploits of Dries Mertens, Napoli claimed top spot in Serie A, claiming campione d’inverno honours (winter champion) with a 10-match winning streak to keep Juventus at bay.

Away trips to Inter, Milan, and Juventus stand out amid a challenging run, though Napoli has the best road record in Italy with 38 points out of a possible 42. The only team unbeaten away from home in Serie A, it also doesn't have the Champions League and Coppa Italia distractions that Juventus faces.

Among the first-team regulars, only Vlad Chiriches and Faouzi Ghoulam are injured, and after Lorenzo Insigne, Jose Callejon, and Mertens confronted dry spells on the heels of a free-scoring spree, Napoli tightened up at the back. The club's conceded just six goals over its last 10 matches (four of those coming against Roma to pair with seven clean sheets). There's plenty of reason for hope, especially with the next three matches coming against Genoa, Sassuolo, and Chievo - three of Serie A's worst sides.

What could stand in the way

Familiar territory lies ahead for a Napoli side that was atop the Serie A standings during Sarri's maiden campaign with the club two years ago, only to finish second to Juventus.

Home Away Previous Result Degree of Difficulty
Napoli Genoa 3-2 W Medium
Sassuolo Napoli 3-1 W Low
Napoli Chievo 0-0 D Low
Milan Napoli 2-1 W High
Napoli Udinese 1-0 W Medium
Juventus Napoli 1-0 L High
Fiorentina Napoli 0-0 D Medium
Napoli Torino 3-1 W Low
Sampdoria Napoli 3-2 W High
Napoli Crotone 1-0 W Low

However, that defeat at home to Roma stands out as a warning of sorts. Napoli registered 26 shots to Roma's 10, with 13 of those on target. Still, Mertens and Co. converted just two chances, with the second goal coming in the 91st minute while Eusebio Di Francesco's troops had one eye on dinner reservations. Same with the 0-0 draw with Inter. The Partenopei controlled possession and appeared more threatening going forward, completing a stellar 90 percent of their passes, but it wasn't enough, and the lack of precision is reason to worry.

Compared to Juventus, Napoli's squad has a dearth of players with top-flight titles. Jose Callejon and Raul Albiol played a role in Real Madrid's 2011-12 La Liga-winning campaign and Pepe Reina made three appearances for Bayern's 2014-15 Bundesliga-winning side. Besides that, slim pickings.

Napoli has yet to prove it can get results when it matters most. Sarri is content to characterise his side as the underdog, but unlike in the 2015-16 campaign, the inferiority complex is gone. As the Guardian's Paolo Bandini described it best, "Scudetto" is no longer una bestemmia (a swear word.)

Sarri's side makes the trek north to face Juventus on Apr. 22 in what should be the most decisive match of the Serie A campaign. If the word "Scudetto" is truly no longer cursed or taboo for Napoli, it's time to prove it.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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