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EPL Matchweek 3 best bets: Crystal Palace to pick up 1st win at home

Nick Potts - PA Images / PA Images / Getty

While two goals in the final few minutes spoiled our under in Aston Villa and prevented us from another 2-1 weekend, a juicy +230 draw between Chelsea and Tottenham saved the day and helped us turn a profit.

Let's keep the train rolling with three more plays for the third weekend of the EPL campaign.

Aston Villa (+185) @ Crystal Palace (+150)
Aug 20, 10:00 a.m. EST

Crystal Palace have yet to pick up their first victory of the season, but I've been impressed with what I've seen from the club through two games.

They played Arsenal very tough in the opener and performed better than the 2-0 scoreline suggests. Despite coming out of the gate slowly, Palace only lost the expected goal battle 1.44-1.21 against what looks to be a very formidable Arsenal team. Crystal Palace were in that game until a dagger in the 85th minute.

Palace followed that up by going into Liverpool and earning a draw. A red card from Darwin Nunez undoubtedly helped aid Crystal Palace in their efforts, but Liverpool are remarkably good at home.

To produce a minus-0.82 net xG through two games against likely top-four sides - with one of those matches coming on the road - is a positive, all things considered.

I expect Palace to take the next step and get three points this weekend against Aston Villa.

Aston Villa haven't been impressive through two weeks. The club generated just 0.49 xG against Bournemouth and followed that up by fighting tooth and nail for a late home win over a poor Everton side.

Palace is the better team, and that should shine through Saturday.

Bet: Crystal Palace (+150)

Nottingham Forest (+290) @ Everton (-105)
Aug 20, 10:00 a.m. EST

Everton haven't earned a point this season, and that isn't a fluke. They rank last in expected points (0.84) through two fixtures.

Their defensive process is horrendous as they place dead last in expected goals allowed. Everton haven't fared much better offensively, sitting 17th in expected goal generation while scoring just once.

Luckily for them and their quest to earn a point, their matchup this weekend is reasonably soft.

Nottingham Forest picked up a win last time out, but their underlying metrics through two weeks leave a lot to be desired. They enter play with a minus-1.74 xG differential and sit 16th in expected points.

They know Everton will come out desperate on home soil. With a win in their back pocket already, Nottingham can afford to play conservative and try to tighten the screws defensively.

I don't see much back and forth in this game. I think Everton likely wins the possession battle, but they lack the dynamic talent to break through set defenses regularly.

This contest doesn't figure to feature many chances, and I don't see much between two teams that appear destined for bottom-five finishes. There's value backing a draw.

Bet: Draw (+250)

Brighton (+210) @ West Ham (+130)
Aug 21, 9:00 a.m. EST

Brighton have been rather impressive in the early going of this campaign. They picked up a road win against Manchester United in their opener and drew last time out against Newcastle.

Although a home draw isn't the most flattering result, Brighton won the shot battle 13-4 (7-1 on target) and were unlucky not to pick up another win.

Meanwhile, West Ham United have hit rocky waters to start the season. They've dropped consecutive games, shut out in both.

However, there's no shame in West Ham losing to Manchester City, and they were unlucky in not finding the back of the net against Nottingham.

In fact, the 2.09 expected goals West Ham generated against Nottingham were the most of any Premier League side last week.

The goals will come sooner than later, especially if they generate chances like that.

Expect a strong, bounce-back effort on home soil.

Bet: West Ham (+130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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