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Euro 2020 odds: Best bets, value plays

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Saturday's group stage draw painted a clear picture for participating nations ahead of Euro 2020 this summer.

With the field nearly set, we can more easily identify value in the futures market and jump on some mispriced lines that should shorten by the time the tournament begins on June 12.

NATION ODDS
France 4-1
England 5-1
Belgium 7-1
Germany 8-1
Netherlands 8-1
Spain 8-1
Portugal 10-1
Italy 14-1
Croatia 25-1
Poland 80-1
Russia 80-1
Switzerland 80-1
Ukraine 80-1
Denmark 100-1
Serbia 100-1
Turkey 100-1

Only nations with odds 100-1 or shorter were included

Best bet: Germany (8-1)

The odds for Germany to win Euro 2020 sat at 7-1 before the draw and have since lengthened to 8-1 as a result of being thrown into the "Group of Death" with 2018 World Cup champions France, Euro 2016 champions Portugal, and the winner of playoff Path A, which could very well be Iceland. But just how bad is this draw, really, for Germany?

Die Mannschaft have the luxury of playing all three group stage matches at Allianz Arena in Munich, which is a massive boost to their hopes of progressing. Home-field advantage on its own should be enough to see them into the knockouts and transforms them into clear favorites to top the group, regardless of what the odds suggest. Winning the quartet would pit them against a third-place finisher in the last 16 and then either the Group D or E runner-up in the quarter-finals, which would likely be one of Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, or Sweden. That's more than negotiable.

Aside from an easier path to the semi-finals, finishing atop Group F would also place Germany in the top half of the knockout stage bracket. In doing so, it would likely avoid the likes of England, France, the Netherlands, and Spain until the final, with one of Belgium or Italy its biggest hurdle to clear before the final. Don't be scared by the difficulty of Group F, take Germany at these long odds and watch as they shorten to 3-1 by the start of the knockouts.

Best bet: Netherlands (8-1)

No team got an easier draw than the Netherlands. The Oranje have been on a warpath since embarrassingly failing to qualify the 2018 World Cup (and Euro 2016 before that). Their reputation as an international powerhouse took a blow as a result of their absence from the last two major tournaments, but the Dutch were very much in a transition period. Now, boasting their best and most complete squad since Euro 2000, they're primed to make a run at their first international trophy in 32 years.

The Netherlands was drawn with Ukraine, Austria, and the winner of Path D (the weakest of the four). As if that wasn't favorable enough, it will play all its matches in Amsterdam at Johan Cruyff Arena. Winning the group should be close to a foregone conclusion, at which point its path to the semi-finals will likely be just as straightforward - a third-place finisher in the last 16 and the runner-up of Group A or B in the quarters.

Over the past 14 months, the Oranje have beaten France, England, and Germany twice. They have stars in all three phases of the pitch, can attack in a number of ways, and are set to avoid any of the other European giants until the semi-finals. Getting 8-1 is highway robbery, and it won't last long.

Value bet: Ukraine (80-1)

Ukraine was one of just five nations to go unbeaten in qualifying. It topped its group ahead of the Portuguese, beating them in Kyiv and drawing in Lisbon. Now it gets the Netherlands, Austria, and the Path D winner in its tournament group, with second place there for the taking. Finishing ahead of the Dutch would require a mammoth effort, with the Netherlands playing at home throughout the group stage, but second place hardly spells disaster. In fact, it might actually prove beneficial.

If Ukraine finishes just below the Oranje, it will likely get a last-16 date with Italy, a nation that isn't quite striking fear in opponents these days. The Azzurri finished 10-0-0 in qualifying but their group was comical. The end result for Ukraine is a more-than-negotiable path to the quarters, where the Group B winner would likely await. That could be Belgium, but it could just as likely be Denmark, which gets to host all three group matches in Copenhagen. That would be a very friendly path to the semi-finals.

Once there, anything can happen. Ukraine has a well-balanced squad that may not be incredible in any area but is very good in every phase - disciplined in defense, fluid in midfield, and creative in attack. There's a nice mix of youth and experience, and there certainly isn't a lack of chemistry, as a number of the players suit up together domestically. Ukraine doesn't get enough respect due to its lack of star power, so let's take advantage.

Value bet: Turkey (100-1)

Despite a disappointing showing in the Nations League, Turkey impressed in qualifying with just one loss through 10 matches. It took four points from two games against France - a clear statement of intent ahead of this summer's tournament.

Turkey has been drawn into a wide-open Group A with Italy, Switzerland, and Wales, giving it a favorable chance at progressing to the knockouts. If it can finish in the top two of the group, its likeliest opponent in the last 16 would be one of Austria, Denmark, Russia, or Ukraine. Not terrifying by any means.

Eventually, one of the big guns will await, but Turkey is more than capable of competing with anyone on its day. Senol Gunes' men were spectacular in beating France 2-0 in June - one of just two games Les Bleus have lost since March 2018 (the other coming against the Netherlands).

Anchored by a severely underrated center-back pairing in Caglar Syuncu and Merih Demiral, Turkey also boasts a plethora of skilled attackers, including Cengiz Under, Hakan Calhanoglu, Yusuf Yazici, and teenager Ahmed Kutucu. There is a ton of potential in this side, which has been priced horribly.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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