Champions League Matchday 5 betting preview

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Matchday 4 was essentially a wash, pushing our Champions League record to 11-12-1 for a profit of $1,063.

This week's edition includes more chalk plays than usual. Matchday 5 is typically when the cream rises to the top. The big clubs are fighting for position and eager to book their place in the knockout stages with a game to spare so they can rotate their squad in the group finale.

Rolling with the chalk is especially a rarity on my end - there's too much value in the sport to be laying juice - but sometimes the occasion calls for it.

Best bet

Borussia Dortmund (+475) at Barcelona (-188), Draw (+350)

There was no stopping Borussia Dortmund in the second half Friday night when they looked like a well-oiled machine and hammered Paderborn 3-0 during the final 45 minutes at Signal Iduna Park. The problem is that they fell behind 3-0 in the first half to a newly promoted side that had just four points through its first 11 matches. That's been par for the course for Dortmund this season. They've conceded in bunches and struggled to put together a full 90-minute performance.

That's not going to cut it against Barcelona. Dortmund last scored a goal away from home on Oct. 5 in a 2-2 draw at Freiburg. Since then, they've lost 2-0 away to Inter and 4-0 away to Bayern Munich. Visiting the Camp Nou is as tough of a test as there is in the Champions League, and Dortmund have simply strayed too far from their best to leave with a result.

A win for Barcelona will seal the top spot in Group F, while any other result will send them into Matchday 6 with their qualification hopes still hanging in the balance. Luis Suarez is back to full fitness and expected to start in what should be a straightforward victory for the Blaugrana.

Pick: Barcelona -1 (+100)

Value bets

Atletico Madrid (+280) at Juventus (+110), Draw (+220)

Atletico Madrid are back in Turin for the first time since last season's crushing Champions League exit. Diego Simeone's squad held a 2-0 advantage after the first leg before it was sunk by a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick in Italy as Juventus snatched a place in the quarterfinals out from under them. That will be a big mental hurdle for Atletico to clear as they return to the scene of one of the more harrowing nights in club history.

A Bianconeri win would secure them the top spot in Group D, but a 1-1 or 0-0 draw would also do the trick. Juventus could play a bit more conservatively than they otherwise would. A point would all but guarantee Atletico's progression, too, so you can expect a typically defensive display from Simeone's side as it looks to secure a favorable result. You can also take a stab at a 1-1 exact score at 5-1 odds.

Pick: Draw +220

Bayern Munich (-400) at Crvena Zvezda (+1000), Draw (+550)

There's too much value here to pass up. Bayern Munich have four wins from four in the group stage and are a virtual lock to finish atop their quartet. They need just one point here to essentially secure first place, so it's entirely possible they won't be playing with the same intensity as they have through the first four matches.

Crvena Zvezda were uncharacteristically beaten 4-0 by Tottenham in their last home match in the Champions League, but that scoreline isn't a fair representation of their abilities. This is a very tough team to beat at home, as evidenced by last season's win over Liverpool and draw with Napoli. It's not hard to see Bayern stumbling here if they lack a bit in motivation.

Pick: Draw (+550)

Ajax (-110) at Lille (+275), Draw (+300)

A pair of brutal decisions by the referee forced Ajax to settle for a point at Stamford Bridge, and they still nearly won despite going down two men. Their efforts in London were another example of why Ajax need to be taken seriously in the Champions League.

The club is still loaded with talent all over the pitch, and its playing style is conducive to success in the competition. Ajax hammered Lille 3-0 in Amsterdam, but we still get them at a short price as their name isn't valued the same way Europe's other top clubs' are.

Both Daley Blind and Joel Veltman will be suspended due to the aforementioned red cards, but Ajax have the depth to absorb their absences. Edson Alvarez and Perr Schuurs should start in defense, or Lisandro Martinez can drop back to partner Alvarez with Razvan Marin taking his place in midfield. Either way, manager Erik ten Hag has an abundance of options and Ajax shouldn't miss a beat against a Lille side really struggling for form.

Pick: Ajax (-110)

Parlay of the week

Don't overthink this one: Manchester City won't have any issue breezing past Shakhtar. They already beat them 3-0 in Ukraine and hammered them 6-0 at the Etihad last season.

Tottenham capitalized on the boost from new manager Jose Mourinho and beat West Ham on the weekend. Spurs should have no problem taking care of business at home against an Olympiacos side that doesn't travel well.

Add in Barcelona, as discussed above, and you have a tasty parlay. Sometimes, it pays to be square.

Pick: Manchester City -1, Tottenham, Barcelona (+130)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.