Fantasy Lookahead: A rested Rory McIlroy to continue dominance of Quail Hollow
Rory McIlroy hasn't played since his 10th-place finish at the Masters. It was his eighth event of the season, his seventh made cut and his third top 10 on the PGA Tour this season.
His best finish in a stroke-play event came as a third at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, in which he entered the final round with the lead. He came fourth in the Dell Match Play.
He's been off for four weeks entering this event. At No. 3 in the Official World Golf Rankings, he's the top-ranked player in the field. He's joined by Rickie Fowler in the top five. Henrik Stenson (No. 6), Adam Scott (No. 7), and Justin Rose (No. 10) round out the five players from the top 10. This is the strongest and deepest field since the Masters.
Course History
McIlroy has two career victories at Quail Hollow, his most recent victory - the Wells Fargo Championship in 2015 - and his first PGA Tour victory - the Quail Hollow Championship in 2010. McIlroy set the course record in the third round of last year's victory, posting a 61 en route to a seven-stroke victory over Patrick Rodgers and Webb Simpson.
His first victory, back in 2010, was fueled by a final-round score of 62, which propelled him to a four-stroke victory over Phil Mickelson. This shows that McIlroy not only has a strong affiliation with this course, but when he's playing his best, he can completely separate himself from the field.
He entered 2015's event off an eighth-place finish at The Players, a win at the Dell Match Play and a fourth at the Masters. 2010's victory came after consecutive missed cuts at the Masters and the Shell Houston Open. McIlroy has achieved success here even without strong recent form. He's the clear favorite due to his strong - but not quite good enough - form so far this year.
Statistical Breakdown
Per FantasyInsiders, the following stats have been strengths of previous winners at Quail Hollow:
Driving Distance (DD)
Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (P4E)
Par 5 Scoring Average (P5S)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SGT2G)
Here's how McIlroy ranks in those statistics in 2016:
| DD | P4E | P5S | SGT2G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | 1 | 8 |
McIlroy is one of seven players in the field to rank inside the top 50 on tour in each of the four key stats. Last season in this event, he averaged 321.1 yards per drive and .803 strokes gained (putting) while hitting 55.36 percent of fairways off the tee and 77.78 percent of greens in regulation.
So far this season, he's averaging 305.1 yards per drive, hitting 59.89 percent of fairways and 69.02 percent of greens in regulation and is at .070 strokes gained (putting). Putting continues to be the weakest part of his game this season, in comparison to the top players on tour, but it's been steadily improving since switching to the left-hand-low style.
He'll be able to rely on his distance on a course where he has proven to be more than comfortable with the greens.
Daily Fantasy
McIlroy will be extremely high priced this week, causing DFS owners to shift their attention toward some cheaper players who've already won in 2016. Yet, with the majority of DFS owners aware of McIlroy's impressive course history, he'll remain a highly sought after target.
The separation with which McIlroy has won at Quail Hollow may negate the importance of fading his high ownership. It isn't always essential to have the winner in large-field GPPs, but if history repeats itself, McIlroy will be the highest-scoring golfer in DFS, and it won't be close.
If you're sold on him winning this week, he needs to be in each of your lineups.
Season-Long Fantasy
As mentioned, McIlroy has the potential to run away with this tournament once again. He's scoring equally well on both nines so far this year, making him a strong play from a very top-heavy B-List this week. He has gone on lengthy runs of victories and top-10 finishes in the past, and this could very well be the start of 2016's stretch.
Owners running out of starts for McIlroy should roster him this week, before saving him for The Players, the three remaining majors, and the other most marquee events on tour.