What sort of contract will Johnny Gaudreau fetch this summer?
Johnny Gaudreau's agent, Lewis Gross, is said to be in Calgary this week and is expected to compare notes with Flames brass on the next contract for his superstar client.
The two sides aren't expected to hammer out a deal over the coming days. In fact, Gaudreau's sets up to be a long, fairly complex negotiation. So that begs the question - what can the shifty, high-scoring winger and best player on the team command in his first restricted free-agent season?
Gaudreau will reach free agency faster than most elite prospects, having signed a two-year entry-level contract following his career at Boston College, as opposed to the typical three-year term. It seems advantageous, obviously, but Gaudreau will turn 23 during the summer in which he negotiates his first deal, whereas his linemate, Sean Monahan, will cash in before turning 22.
That said, with his advanced polish, Gaudreau stands to command more than Monahan - or any other controllable asset this summer, for that matter.
Gaudreau has produced consistently at an elite level throughout his two-year term. He ranks seventh in scoring right now, and his 119 points over the life of his entry-level deal sees him 15th among NHL scorers.
He's merely a rung below Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux, is on par with Evgeni Malkin, and ahead of Anze Kopitar and Ryan Getzlaf - all players scheduled to make in excess of $7.5 million on an annual basis for the next several years.
| NHL Rank | Player | G | A | P | P/P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tarasenko | 64 | 58 | 122 | 0.91 |
| 13 | Giroux | 41 | 81 | 122 | 0.89 |
| 14 | Malkin | 51 | 68 | 119 | 1.01 |
| 15 | Gaudreau | 46 | 73 | 119 | 0.88 |
| 16 | Kopitar | 33 | 82 | 115 | 0.85 |
| 20 | Getzlaf | 31 | 83 | 114 | 0.88 |
The generously listed 155-pounder has also answered concerns surrounding his size, having missed just three games in his career - all of which were coach's decisions.
What does work against Gaudreau is the leverage Brad Treliving and his brain trust maintain throughout his restricted seasons. Gaudreau can't spring for the highest bidder for five more years, and cannot truly cash in on his to-date output in arbitration.
In the end, it will come down to whether Gaudreau is willing to cash in on his immediate success with a few concessions on a long-term pact that will carry him into his unrestricted years.
Recent trends suggest we shouldn't expect a short-term "bridge" agreement, even with the Flames maintaining control. While they limit risk, such agreements tend to lend upside to the player, and has allowed some (ahem, P.K. Subban) to launch their value into another stratosphere.
Gaudreau's camp will push for the $7.5-million annual term Tarasenko signed for in St. Louis last summer, but an agreement akin to the expensive (and also quite reasonable) long-term contract Aleksander Barkov and the Florida Panthers agreed to seems more equitable. Dale Tallon successfully bought up Barkov's prime seasons last month with a six-year, $35.4-million deal.
Scoring is in demand, so despite not playing the premium position, Gaudreau might be able to juice out a few more dollars and land between Tarasenko and the $5.9-million annual term Barkov jumped at.
With an uncertain future pertaining to the league's salary cap, purchasing productive seasons should be in Calgary's best interest, whereas taking the most money and term while it's on the table is a wise decision for any player.
Especially for those who might still be working off that college tuition.