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Fantasy - Fact or Fiction: 3 players to watch using advanced stats

Matt Kartozian / Reuters

Every Tuesday, we examine three players you should watch in your hockey pool using advanced statistics.

As debates over the merits of advanced statistics in hockey continue to rage on Twitter, it's always good to be reminded that much of the information boils down to the task of tracking shot attempts.

While a player's Corsi rating measures the differential between all shots attempted while he's on the ice, a player's iCorsi tracks his individual attempts, meaning his actual shots on goal plus shots attempts that missed the net or were blocked.

By looking at this particular number at even strength, we can get an idea of a player's overall performance.

F James Neal, Nashville Predators

We touched on Neal in this column's debut back in October, after he scored one goal in five games to start the season. He proceeded to drop six goals in his next six games, finishing the month of October with an impressive seven in 11.

His production has slowed since that time, however, with only four goals scored in his last 19 games. While Neal remains on pace to finish with 31 goals over the course of a full 82-game season, there's reason to believe that another level can and will be reached.

To wit, Neal ranks second among all NHL players with 167 even strength shot attempts, and ninth in actual shots on goal in all situations with 104. He also ranks first with 25.37 shot attempts per every 60 minutes at even strength, well ahead of the likes of Max Pacioretty and Alex Ovechkin.

Couple that with the fact his shooting percentage (10.6) is down from his career average of 12.4, and there's every reason to believe Neal could hit 35 goals on the season, and possibly even push for 40.

D Keith Yandle, Arizona Coyotes

Oft-mentioned as being a trade target on the NHL market, this desert dog is once again proving his worth to fantasy managers, and, like Neal, could be on the verge of upping his goal totals in a big way.

The 11th ranked defenseman in Yahoo leagues with three goals and 17 assists through 30 games, Yandle sits second among players at his position with 138 shot attempts, behind only Brent Burns (169) and one ahead of Erik Karlsson.

On pace for 55 points, Yandle's shooting percentage of 1.5 at even strength and 3.1 in all situations is down from his career average of 5.3, while his 97 shots put him in line to set a new career high with 265.

The durable defenseman hasn't missed a game in seven seasons, meaning it's fair to extrapolate his current pace over 82 games, while accounting for an expected bump in production as his shooting percentage corrects and adjusts itself back to his norm.

If he keeps firing at the same rate, a double digit goal total and a firm place among the league's top 10 defensemen should be expected.

F Tomas Tatar, Detroit Red Wings

On the flip side of the aforementioned favorable-looking situations is a player like Tomas Tatar, who has recorded 12 goals and nine assists in 31 games for the Red Wings, putting him on pace for 32 goals and 56 points. 

Not bad for the 211th ranked player on fantasy league draft day.

Tatar's 10 even strength goals (tied for fourth) on only 57 shots puts his shooting percentage at 17.5, while his 12 goals on 82 total shots puts his overall shooting percentage at a relatively inflated 14.6 percent.

The question is, can he keep it going?

At present, Tatar ranks 66th among all NHL players with 99 shot attempts at even strength. Factoring in his total 5-on-5 ice time, in which he's ranked 255th, his shot attempts per 60 minutes sit at 16.25, good for 50th in the league.

So on one hand, unlike Neal and Yandle, Tatar appears primed for a measure of regression, as his shooting rate suggests his goal production will level off at some point sooner than later.

Having said that, he did total 17 even strength goals on 14.91 shot attempts per 60 even strength minutes last season, meaning he's likely to at least eclipse 20 goals for the first time in his career.

His current pace of 32, however, may be a bit of a stretch, so measure expectations accordingly at try to sell high while you can.

(Statistical information courtesy of Puckalytics.com)

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