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Fantasy - Fact or Fiction: 3 players to watch using advanced stats

Adam Hunger / USA TODAY Sports

Every Tuesday, we examine three players you should watch in your hockey pool using advanced statistics.

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, we've reached the point in the NHL season where hot starts are turning into remarkable seasons. 

Still, there's ample time for regression to rear its ugly head, derailing the promise of career highs and sinking fantasy hopes in the process.

This week, we'll look at three players who have excelled early, and assess whether they're likely to keep it up all season long.

Rick Nash, New York Rangers

With 14 goals in his first 20 games this season, Nash is on pace for 57.4 total. Not only would that mark his first time over the half-century mark, it would also shatter his career-high of 41 set in 2003-04, when he split the Maurice Richard Trophy with Ilya Kovalchuk and Jarome Iginla.

It's no secret that Nash was born to score goals, and with 350 in 803 career games, he's averaging 35.7 per 82 games played since entering the NHL in 2002 as the first overall draft pick. 

But can he sustain a pace that suggests a 20-plus goal bump?

What's somewhat concerning is his shooting percentage, which sits at 19.2, up significantly from his career average of 12.6. Considering the average shooting percentage among forwards this season is 10.46, one can assume that even a player of Nash's ilk will fall back a touch.

On the plus side, however, Nash's production isn't being propped up by success on the power play. Eleven of his 14 goals have come on 50 shots at even strength, good for a 22 percent success rate. If his scoring at even strength slows, a bump in scoring on the man advantage - more in line with his career average of 9.4 power-play goals per 82 games - will help sustain his overall production.

Another encouraging note: while Nash is producing a promising Corsi For rating of 53.2 in all situations, his number drops to 48.2 at even strength. Over the past seven seasons, he posted a 51.8 even-strength Corsi rating, meaning his production could be propped up by improved possession numbers. 

He's also on pace for almost 300 shots on goal, putting him in a good spot to consistently help the Rangers on the score sheet.

All told, Nash should set a new career high and challenge for another Richard Trophy by season's end, but 57 goals may be a stretch.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota Wild

Of the 14 NHL players with double-digit goal totals so far this season, the man they call El Nino is one of the more intriguing names.

Drafted fifth overall by the New York Islanders in 2010, Niederreiter didn't start showing off his scoring touch until after being traded to the Wild, and only later in the season and into the playoffs at that.

Through 20 games, he leads the team with 10 goals, putting him on pace for 41 (to go along with 12 projected assists). His production raises eyebrows on two fronts. 

For one, he's only averaging two shots per game, and his goals have come at a success rate of 25 percent. This is a major leap from his career average of 9.7, and seems wholly unsustainable even if the number drops to 13.3 at even strength.

Second, while he leads all Wild forwards in power-play goals with four, he ranks seventh in ice time, meaning he's taken advantage of his opportunities to the tune of a 50 percent shooting percentage on the man advantage. He's also likely to get bumped by the likes of Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek once they get rolling five-on-four.

In other words, take advantage of those ten early goals and sell high before he cools down.

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

The uber-talented Blues winger is on pace for 47 goals over a full 82-game season. Like Nash, Tarasenko's even-strength shooting percentage sits at a manageable 11.8, but, contrary to the Rangers' sniper, his 57.5 Corsi For rating suggests he's dominating possession and indicates sustained success.

We don't have much of a sample size with which to compare this season's numbers. What we do know is Tarasenko scored 21 goals in 64 games for the Blues last season, putting him on track for a more modest 27 over 82 games. 

His shot rate, however, is up considerably over a year ago. In those 64 games, Tarasenko fired 36 shots on goal, good for 2.13 per game. This season, he's averaging 3.8 shots per game, and is on pace for 312. 

Can this 22-year-old hang with the NHL's best goal scorers this season? Based on his production at even strength, and the fact he ranks second in power-play time among all Blues forwards, the answer is, probably.

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