Senators-Rangers Preview: 3 reasons why Ottawa will win

The Atlantic Division's second-seeded Ottawa Senators will take on the Eastern Conference's top wild-card team, the New York Rangers. Ottawa won the season series 2-1, outscoring New York 8-5. This series comes roughly nine months after the two teams made a trade involving centers Derick Brassard and Mika Zibanejad.

Here are three reasons why the Senators will take the series:

Ottawa's 1-3-1 trap will stifle New York

Senators head coach Guy Boucher deploys a very boring (from a viewers perspective), but effective system: the 1-3-1.

This means, when the opposition has control of the puck and begins to head up ice, one skater will wait in the neutral zone and attack the puck carrier, three will stay between the red line and their own blue line to prevent a zone entry, and one skater will sit back in the defensive zone in anticipation of a dump in.

When everyone on the team buys into this system - which it seems the Senators have - it can be very difficult for an opponent to generate offense.

Over a full series, playing against this system can become frustrating. Frustration can lead to sloppy play - something to which the Rangers are no strangers.

New York had the fourth-most giveaways in the regular season, and has the second-most giveaways in the playoffs, according to Corsica.Hockey. Ottawa ranked 15th in takeaways during the regular season, but has the most takeaways in the postseason.

If the Rangers turn the puck over in the neutral zone on a regular basis, Ottawa has enough speed up front to burn the Rangers' immobile defense in transition.

Rangers' poor shot generation could bite them

The Blueshirts ranked 21st in shot attempts during the regular season. The only other teams to qualify for the playoffs with fewer shot attempts were the Calgary Flames and St. Louis Blues.

Another staple of a Boucher-coached team is elite shot-blocking. The Sens ranked third in blocked shots during the regular season.

Factoring in both of these statistics could mean a relatively light workload for Senators goaltender Craig Anderson. The Sens are 13-6-0 when Anderson faced fewer than 30 shots during the regular season and playoffs.

In addition to shot quantity, the Rangers could fail to generate quality shots. In the first round, Anderson faced just 4.04 high-danger shots per 60 minutes at 5v5 - the lowest among playoff goaltenders.

In comparison, Henrik Lundqvist faced 7.82 high-danger shots per 60 minutes at 5v5 - the highest among playoff goaltenders.

Though both goalies have the potential to rob a series, the one who projects to face fewer quality shots and fewer shots overall is more likely to succeed.

Erik Karlsson

In what projects to be a low-scoring series, games will often come down to one crucial play. This is where Sens defenseman Karlsson factors in.

The argument could be made that Karlsson is the biggest difference-maker in the entire league, let alone this series. He made three plays in particular that essentially won Ottawa's opening-round series against Boston.

The Rangers are a deep team with talent up and down the lineup, but they lack that one marquee player they can count on night in and night out. Ottawa has the X-factor in Karlsson. Even while playing through a foot injury, his first step is superior to anyone's in this series. Even in the muddiest of games, he can create offense and make plays.

Prediction: Senators in six.

Betting Line

(Odds courtesy: Bodog)

Series Schedule

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)