Capitals-Maple Leafs Preview: Toronto playing with house money, but faces daunting task
All the pressure is on the Washington Capitals.
For the first time since 2013 and only the second time since the 2004-05 NHL season was lost to a lockout, the Toronto Maple Leafs are back in the postseason.
One year after finishing 30th out of 30, and only in head coach Mike Babcock's second season of eight behind the Toronto bench, the Maple Leafs rode their rookies to an improbable 95-point season and a date with the Presidents' Trophy winners. It's all gravy from here.
Toronto isn't favored. It can't be. Especially when it's Stanley Cup or bust in D.C., with T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, Daniel Winnik, Karl Alzner, and rental Kevin Shattenkirk set for unrestricted free agency on July 1.
Here are three things you need to know about the series:
Only 1 team can defend
Both these teams can score. Only one of them can defend, and you can probably guess which one.
| Capitals (Rank) | Statistic | Maple Leafs (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.18 (3rd) | Goals Per Game | 3.05 (5th) |
| 2.16 (1st) | Goals Against Per Game | 2.85 (22nd) |
| 23.1% (T-3rd) | Power Play | 23.8% (2nd) |
| 83.8% (7th) | Penalty Kill | 82.5% (10th) |
| 28.3 (4th) | Shots Against | 32.6 (28th) |
| .922 (1st) | Save Percentage | .912 (T-12th) |
| 51.81% (4th) | Corsi | 50.40 (13th) |
Both teams can fill the net, each boasting five guys with 20 or more goals. The teams are also closer than expected on special teams. But you can see where Washington has the advantage - possession, shots against, and in goal.
Goals are harder to come by in the playoffs, as the checking and defense ramps up, and Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Connor Brown are going to learn that awfully quickly.
The majority of the game is played at even strength, and there aren't many teams better at five-on-five than Barry Trotz's squad.
Holtby lives for the spring
Since 2012, when Braden Holtby burst onto the scene in Washington with a monumentally impressive playoff run, there's been no better goalie in the postseason.
And the sample size isn't small.
Here are the best playoff goalies since 2012, with a minimum of 20 postseason games played:
| Rank | Goalie | Playoffs GP | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holtby | 46 | .937 |
| 2 | Tuukka Rask | 34 | .936 |
| 3 | Craig Anderson | 21 | .933 |
| 4 | Ben Bishop | 36 | .927 |
| 5 | Henrik Lundqvist | 81 | .927 |
| 6 | Jonathan Quick | 69 | .925 |
| 7 | Matt Murray | 21 | .923 |
| 8 | Martin Jones | 26 | .923 |
| 9 | Corey Crawford | 75 | .919 |
| 10 | Martin Brodeur | 24 | .917 |
| 11 | Brian Elliott | 33 | .917 |
| 12 | Frederik Andersen | 28 | .916 |
With all due respect to Frederik Andersen, he's nowhere near Holtby's level.
Massive advantage Washington, not only against Toronto, but against anyone in the Eastern Conference.
Young Leafs must learn lessons
It's always said about young teams: They must learn to lose before they win.
And you get the feeling Toronto is going to very much regret losing its regular-season finale to Columbus, blowing a 2-0 lead and an opportunity to play Ottawa and not the Capitals in the first round.
Regardless, Toronto's at the dance, that's what counts, and it appears it will be the first of many playoff appearances for this Maple Leafs squad. And as Babcock said, his club's in for a rude awakening as to what playoff hockey entails, no matter what he tells his group before Game 1.
"They're not going to believe me," he said. And he's probably right.
The Maple Leafs may take their lumps in this series - it could be over quickly.
But you get the feeling that even if Toronto goes down, if it can force the series to six or seven games, the Maple Leafs will look back on this playoff appearance as one that sets the stage for an eventual deep - and potential Stanley Cup - run.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)