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Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Exploit the Avalanche with a couple of Sabres

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports / Reuters / USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Saturday, Feb. 25 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):

Dynamic Duos

  • C Jack Eichel (57K) & D Rasmus Ristolainen (40K), Sabres (at Avalanche): Ristolainen is an excellent option at his price because of his propensity to pick up hits and blocks in addition to a parade of assists. He has eight points in his last 10 games. Eichel co-assisted on a goal with Ristolainen in their last game, and has likewise been a generally positive presence of late. Against the Avalanche, they're in good shape.
  • C Ryan Johansen (54K) & LW Filip Forsberg (54K), Predators (at Capitals): Forsberg has six goals in two games. While a third consecutive hat-trick is all but impossible, the Predators draw backup Capitals goaltender Philipp Grubauer. For much of the season, this line has not been the most productive with only a 6.70 scoring chances per 60, but the tide is possibly turning making it a fine contrarian pairing.
  • C Boone Jenner (41K) & RW Cam Atkinson (61K), Blue Jackets (vs. Islanders): Consistency has helped the Blue Jackets find success as the only team in the NHL with two trios who have skated at least 400 minutes together. Jenner and Atkinson are part of one. Atkinson has been the top scorer with 50 points, but Jenner's lack of scoring is propped up a bit by his 149 hits.

Goalie Breakdown

  • TARGET - Carey Price (91K), Canadiens (at Maple Leafs): While the Canadiens' struggles have not avoided Price, his upside is still "best goalie on the planet." The Maple Leafs take 32.9 shots per game, third most in the league, so if he's on he'll make plenty of saves to help boost his fantasy returns.
  • BARGAIN - Philipp Grubauer (76K), Capitals (at Predators): The opposing Predators have a somewhat surprisingly potent offense, averaging 2.85 goals per game on 31.7 shots. Grubauer, a backup on the road, is a contrarian choice as well, but with the Capitals' even stronger offense, a win will help counter the matchup.
  • FADE - Antti Raanta (86K), Rangers (at Devils): Conversely, even if the Rangers pick up the win, the saves may not be there. No team takes fewer shots than the Devils. For Raanta to be worth the selection, either the Devils need to shoot above their average or he needs to record a shutout. That's too narrow of a probability to trust.
  • CONTRARIAN - Jonathan Bernier (104K), Ducks (at Kings): Investing this much capital on a backup goaltender on the road seems foolish, but it could pay dividends. Bernier has been unremarkable, but the Kings pepper opponents with shots and fail to convert with regularity. This is a high-risk choice, but it should be a fairly unique tournament option if it hits.

Bargain Plays

  • C Richard Rakell (31K), Ducks (at Kings): Buoyed by a 20.0% shooting percentage, Rakell has ridden good luck between 5v5 and the power play. He broke out of a five-game point-less funk with two goals in his last game, but the draw here is the potential that G Jonathan Quick hits the ice. If Quick is rusty, Rakell is a cheap target with big scoring potential.
  • RW Connor Brown (25K), Maple Leafs (vs. Canadiens): Brown has averaged more than two shots per game over his last eight, and has managed three goals for his efforts. After tallying only two points in his first 15 games, Brown's managed 25 in 45. For the minimum salary, his chances are solid in the event Carey Price isn't at his best
  • D Ryan Ellis (27K), Predators (at Capitals): Only Mattias Ekholm has skated more minutes than Ellis for Nashville. While Ellis' Corsi For % is on the low side (48.30), he's only gone without a shot once in his last 10 games, tallying a solid five points. Likely to block a few shots, he'll return value if he hooks up with a forward on scoring play.

Top Fades

  • LW Daniel Sedin (50K), Canucks (vs. Sharks): It'd be reasonable to simply consider this an all-encompassing fade of the Canucks' offense (except maybe C Bo Horvat). Sedin's 34 points in 60 games and lack of any kind of physical presence limit his upside considerably. Against a solid defensive team with good goaltending like the traveling Sharks, he's a no go.
  • C John Tavares (68K), Islanders (at Blue Jackets): Tavares is fine, but his salary seems to be more to do with name recognition than anything. While he can score at will on occasion, G Sergei Bobrovsky has been excellent at home with a .933 save percentage. Don't expect Tavares to reach his ceiling.
  • RW Brendan Gallagher (51K), Canadiens (at Maple Leafs): No need to outsmart yourself here. There are plenty of options on the wing that taking a contrarian flier on Gallagher is more stubborn than savvy. He has one point in 15 games exacerbated by a very unlucky 2.2% shooting percentage.

Contrarian Options

  • C Nazem Kadri (50K), Maple Leafs (vs. Canadiens): Kadri comes a sight cheaper than teammate Auston Matthews despite their production being relatively close. Kadri, though, has the added bonus of throwing his weight around. Lower salary and an ability to not be a black hole in the instance he can't find the scoresheet gives him the edge in a questionable matchup.
  • RW Corey Perry (55K), Ducks (at Kings): Somehow, Perry has only 11 goals in 62 games. It's likely due to a career-worst 6.5% conversion rate on his shots. That is absurd. It hasn't suppressed his salary enough, so he'll likely be avoided. Perry has scored 30 or more goals in five of six seasons with the lone outlier being the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Embrace the risk.
  • D Shayne Gostisbehere (42K), Flyers (at Penguins): Gostisbehere's salary is entirely too high as he has gone from daily fantasy bargain darling a season ago to possibly the biggest blueline bust. Some of it is horrible luck (3.1 shooting percentage), and his ice time has fluctuated along with it. Still, he's taken 16 shots in five games. Something has to give.

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