Corsi Hockey League: Are we any closer to settling the Subban-Weber debate?
One limitation when evaluating players with advanced data is that performance doesn't occur in a vacuum. Players are all - to at least a certain extent - products of their system, and environment and role invariably impact individual metrics.
Because of this, we often see underlying numbers look more, or less favorably, when players begin to work out of a new system. A coaching change, or shift in scenery can easily overhaul perception.
P.K. Subban and Shea Weber have been performing under new instruction for almost four months following last summer's stunning swap of high-priced, top-pairing defenders.
What, if anything, have we learned since?
Before the deal
| G/60 | P/60 | CF/60 | CA/60 | Rel. CF% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subban | 0.31 | 1.69 | 62.28 | 56.74 | 3.37 |
| Weber | 0.52 | 1.43 | 60.55 | 58.42 | -3.45 |
* Goal and point rates include all conditions
Setting aside the subjectivity to the Subban-Weber debate, this is what the raw numbers revealed about the two All-Star defenders in the two seasons leading up to the deal:
- Weber was the more dangerous goal scorer, but Subban's complete offensive impact was greater.
- Both were high-event players landing on the positive side of possession, but Subban's influence was more significant, and more so relative to his teammates.
Regardless of age, contract, intangibles, or disposition, many felt the Predators won the deal for the simple fact that Subban's ability to drive play was stronger than Weber's.
Since the deal
| G/60 | P/60 | CF/60 | CA/60 | Rel. CF% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subban | 0.48 | 1.25 | 64.53 | 51.23 | 4.32 |
| Weber | 0.55 | 1.41 | 57.39 | 55.34 | -2.15 |
As is the objective in every trade, both parties received precisely what they paid for. The data's reflected this so far, but perhaps with one exception.
Weber's offensive impact was immediate in Montreal, as he scored seven goals and racked up 10 points in his first 20 games with the man advantage alone. By contrast, Subban has just seven power-play points, and 18 overall, (in 17 fewer games).
Regardless, Weber's outshone his counterpart so far inside the offensive zone with similar numbers from his time in Nashville.
Yet, when evaluating in terms of strict 5-on-5 performance without goal-scoring randomness, Subban has had that similarly positive overall impact in relation to his teammates, while Weber continues to lag behind a little bit.
The fascination centered around the Subban-Weber debate will endure. And the conversation is made only more compelling in that the two defenders, who have profoundly different styles, haven't necessarily altered the teams' general position in the overall landscape.
Not like, say, the absence of Carey Price would, anyway.
(All advanced data courtesy: Corsica Hockey)