DFS: The Slate, Part I - A Detailed Look at the Week 5 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (click here for Part II; all times ET):
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs -10 (opened at -10)
O/U: 44 (opened at 45 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 80 F; SSW wind @ 8 mph
The Bears' offense is passable with Jay Cutler under center, and he'll have a decent matchup Sunday against a suspect Chiefs pass defense. Cutler is a tournament play, but may be too risky for cash-game formats. ... RB Matt Forte hasn't been that involved in the passing game even with the injury to Alshon Jeffery; expect that to change as Cutler and the Bears try and keep pace with Kansas City. He's a strong choice in all formats. ... if Jeffery returns, it will be to a positive matchup, and at his price point, the boom-or-bust factor should keep ownership low. Take a chance with a Cutler pairing in a GPP. ... TE Martellus Bennett is likely looking at another week of solid targets, making him a strong cash-game play despite his top-tier status. ... Chiefs QB Alex Smith is a great punt candidate this week against a Chicago defense that continues to struggle. ... RB Jamaal Charles has scored five TDs through four games, and had 145 all-purpose yards despite not reaching the end zone last week. Fire him up as a high-floor, high-ceiling stud; he should be in most - if not all - of your lineups. ... WR Jeremy Maclin is soaking up the targets and should see a similar workload this week. His PPR value is through the roof; roster him in all formats, even if you have Charles. ... Ditto TE Travis Kelce, who has seen his role diminish in recent weeks but remains a high-floor play with a solid chance of catching a TD pass.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bears 24
DFS MVP: Jamaal Charles
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals -3 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 44 1/2 (opened at 43)
Weather: Clear, 72 F; SW wind @ 6 mph
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has returned value just once in his first four games; he has thrown just five touchdown passes and is still looking for his first rushing score. On the road against a better-than-advertised Cincinnati defense, he's a bad choice this week. ... RB Marshawn Lynch has been ruled out, leaving the bulk of the carries likely to go to Thomas Rawls. It's best to avoid the Seattle backfield. ... WR Doug Baldwin has caught 20 of 24 passes thrown his way; the six targets per game is a minor concern, but at his price point, he's a decent contrarian play. ... TE Jimmy Graham has seen a steady decline in percentage of offensive snaps played; he's just too expensive to be trusted. ... Bengals QB Andy Dalton is fantasy's QB2 through four weeks, but gets a stiff test this week. That said, he remains dirt-cheap on multiple DFS sites and is a better-than-average tournament play or cash-game punt. ... RB Jeremy Hill's three TD runs last week rewarded the few who had faith in him, but he still ended up with fewer touches than Giovani Bernard; neither player is a good option Sunday. ... WR A.J. Green has the best shot of coming out of this game as the best DFS option, though he's a tad expensive; roster him in GPPs, but look elsewhere in cash games. ... TE Tyler Eifert in three games since his nine-catch, 104-yard, two-TD explosion in Cincinnati's season opener: 4-49-1, 0-0, 3-69; he's too expensive and not reliable enough.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Seahawks 20
DFS MVP: A.J. Green
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons -7 (opened at -8)
O/U: 48 1/2 (opened at 47 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Redskins QB Kirk Cousins earns plenty of criticism - most of it deserved - but he's a solid contrarian option this week in what should be a pass-heavy game against Atlanta. ... RBs Matt Jones and Alfred Morris have both been dreadful the past two weeks, giving neither guy the edge for the No. 1 spot. They're both cheap enough to be worth tournament shots, but neither is all that involved in the passing game. Pro tip: flip a coin and hope for the best. ... WR DeSean Jackson has been limited in practice, leaving his Sunday availability in doubt. If he plays, fire him up in GPPs as a high-upside flier. If he doesn't, load up on Pierre Garcon, who will see all the work he can handle. Garcon is still a decent option in all formats if Jackson plays. ... TE Jordan Reed is in the league's concussion protocol, and should be avoided no matter what. ... Falcons QB Matt Ryan loves him some home cooking, but his upside could be capped against a surprisingly stout Washington defense. Don't expect a breakout game, but trust him in cash-games on the strength of a sky-high floor. ... RB Devonta Freeman is a tough fade given his back-to-back three-TD performances, but the price is a bit steep for a guy whose ceiling is surely lower than it was in Weeks 3 and 4. ... WR Julio Jones is worth every penny you spend on him, while Leonard Hankerson makes for an interesting cash-game or double-stack possibility; it's clear he's the No. 2 option, and this game should be a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Falcons 30, Redskins 20
DFS MVP: Julio Jones
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers -1 (opened at -3)
O/U: 41 1/2 (opened at 42)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 83 F; W wind @ 4 mph
You won't find many quarterbacks who sling the ball as often as Jaguars QB Blake Bortles; inaccuracy aside, that volume has allowed Bortles to return value in three straight weeks. At a bargain-basement price, expect him to do the same against the host Bucs. ... RB T.J. Yeldon should be on the radar across all formats, given the volume he'll see against a Tampa Bay team that has yielded the third-most rushing yards in the league. ... WR Allen Robinson has struggled to build rapport with Bortles - but it will come; as long as he stays reasonably priced, he's worth a tournament flier. ... Ditto Allen Hurns, who remains cheap for a guy who is a constant TD threat. ... Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston has a great chance to turn around his turnover-happy season against a Jaguars defense that has just one interception through four games. That said, Winston isn't a good DFS option except as a contrarian GPP shot. ... RB Doug Martin did enough in Week 4 to fend off Charles Sims, but will be in tough with Jacksonville allowing a paltry 3.1 YPC. Stay away. ... WR Mike Evans in three games since returning from injury: 0-0, 7-101, 3-32; there's no rapport with Winston, making Evans a risky pick in any format. ... Vincent Jackson came up big in Week 4, and is a safer choice by virtue of a better connection with his QB and a lower price than Evans.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Buccaneers 17
DFS MVP: T.J. Yeldon
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles -6 1/2 (opened at -5)
O/U: 49 1/2 (opened at 48)
Weather: Clear, 67 F; WSW wind @ 5 mph
Saints QB Drew Brees is back to (relatively) full health and immersed what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week; he's at his best in games like this, especially as an underdog, and should return value despite his wonky shoulder. ... RB Mark Ingram has one of the highest floors at his position, but his ceiling will be kept in check by an Eagles team allowing just 3.3 YPC. He's a slight risk in cash-game play, and not worth GPP consideration. ... The only player worth rostering among Saints wide receivers is Willie Snead, who has 15 catches over the past three weeks and remains a massive bargain. Fire him up in tournament play as part of a high-ceiling Brees combo stack. ... Eagles QB Sam Bradford finally showed what he's capable of last week, and is in prime position to build on his Week 4 success against a porous Saints D. He's in play in all formats. ... RB DeMarco Murray is pleading for more carries, but hasn't done anything to deserve them. Avoid him and the rest of the Eagles' backfield in Week 5. ... WR Jordan Matthews may see reduced ownership after struggling on the road against two tough pass defenses; fire him up without hesitation in what could be his best matchup of the season. ... Nelson Agholor is a GPP-only flier as he continues to find his footing within Chip Kelly's offense; he'll see targets Sunday, but remains a distant second to Matthews on the pecking order.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Saints 24
DFS MVP: Jordan Matthews
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -6 (opened at -6 1/2)
O/U: 43 (opened at 44)
Weather: Clear, 67 F; SW wind @ 4 mph
Feeling frisky? Consider Browns QB Josh McCown in a plus matchup against a wobbly Baltimore secondary. He's no cash-game play, but you could do worse in tournaments. ... The Duke Johnson takeover has begun in earnest, as he outtouched Isaiah Crowell last week and looked good doing it; Baltimore has limited teams to 3.9 YPC, so Johnson's value is in his catches - and that makes him worth a look in GPPs ... WR Travis Benjamin is the definition of a big-play wideout, but he has 10 catches the past two weeks and has emerged as McCown's target of choice. He's too risky for cash games, but makes a great contrarian play - especially as half of an ultra-cheap pairing with McCown. ... TE Gary Barnidge isn't this good. Leave him unowned. ... With all the injuries that have hampered the Ravens, QB Joe Flacco will need to start throwing to his linemen soon. He's a weak play against a solid Browns pass defense. ... RB Justin Forsett is the opposite: A home-run option facing one of the league's worst run defenses; Flacco will lean heavily on Forsett, with great fantasy results. ... Avoid anyone whose primary job is to catch passes in a Baltimore uniform. There's no value there whatsoever this week.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 16
DFS MVP: Justin Forsett
St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -8 1/2 (opened at -10)
O/U: 45 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 74 F; SW wind @ 13 mph
Rams QB Nick Foles is staring at one of the lowest implied team totals of the week (17.75 points), making him a risky venture no matter what kind of bargain he represents. ... RB Todd Gurley will be one of the hottest tickets in tournament play - and with good reason, as he represents a major part of the St. Louis offense and will face a Packers unit allowing 4.8 YPC. Only fade him if you're concerned about high ownership; otherwise, lock him down. ... WR Tavon Austin broke out last week, but a repeat is highly unlikely; he's not worth owning, and neither are any of the Rams' other wideouts. ... TE Jared Cook has just four catches for 29 yards over the past two weeks. Steer clear. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is as safe a pick as any when he's dealing at Lambeau Field; if you're spending up at QB, do it here. ... RB Eddie Lacy has seen a steady salary dip due to early-season struggles; This one could be decided early, giving him more responsibility and making him a solid GPP option. ... WR Randall Cobb is the perfect Rodgers pairing, though he'll cost you; James Jones is riskier, but cheaper - and he offers similar upside, making him a stronger combo play option.
Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 17
DFS MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills -1 (opened at -3)
O/U: 43 (opened at 42 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 72 F; S wind @ 2 mph
Bills QB Tyrod Taylor stumbled slightly in his Week 4 start, but the numbers were encouraging; 42 pass attempts and six rush attempts show Rex Ryan isn't afraid to lean heavily on Taylor. He's a GPP consideration against the Titans, though the Bills' 22-point implied total is cause for concern. ... RB Karlos Williams was ruled out due to a concussion, making Boobie Dixon an excellent source of salary relief - but expect high ownership. ... WR Sammy Watkins is also a question mark, and should probably be faded regardless. ... WR Percy Harvin was a non-factor in Watkins' absence last week, and remains one of the most frustrating players in fantasy. He's a weekly GPP play due to his ability to put up a monster game; just don't expect it. ... TE Charles Clay becomes one of the top options at his position if Watkins and/or Williams are out. ... Titans QB Marcus Mariota is off to a sensational start, coming off a Week 4 bye with eight TD passes and two interceptions. He's the same price he was to start the season, and should return value despite the Bills' imposing pass defense. ... The muddled Tennessee running game should be avoided. ... WR Kendall Wright will have his stinkers, but he's the most reliable option Mariota has. He's an intriguing GPP play, either on his own or as part of a Mariota combo. ... TE Delanie Walker's week-to-week consistency makes him a solid cash-game option.
Prediction: Bills 20, Titans 17
DFS MVP: Charles Clay