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Fantasy: 10 breakout players to target in your draft

Tim Heitman / USA TODAY Sports

There's no clear-cut recipe for creating a championship-winning fantasy roster, but it's hard to take home the trophy without at least one or two players who vastly outperform their draft position.

The search for breakout candidates is ultimately a search for a combination of youth, talent, and opportunity. Not all three conditions are necessary for success (recent exceptions include 29-year-old Justin Forsett and C.J. Anderson, who started last season buried on the depth chart), but in general owners should target players who check all the boxes in the middle to late rounds of their drafts.

Below, we run down the breakout candidates most likely to exceed expectations and propel your team to a title.

Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings

Adrian Peterson missed all but one game last season, which had the unintended but ultimately beneficial consequence of accelerating Bridgewater's development. The rookie started his career unevenly but finished the season very strong, throwing 10 touchdowns to six interceptions and completing 68.9 percent of his passes over the last six games. Now, with Peterson back in the fold, Bridgewater and the Vikings offense are poised to break out in a big way. Not only is the second-year passer undervalued, but so are receivers Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

Star potential: ★★★☆☆
ADP: Mid-11th round

Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys

DeMarco Murray's 392 carries have to go to someone, and Randle is the most likely candidate to inherit the bulk of the load. Randle's not a special talent, but he is magnitudes more reliable than Darren McFadden and a better all-around runner than Lance Dunbar. Besides, Randle doesn't need to be above-average to produce low-end RB1 numbers behind the Cowboys' otherworldly offensive line. Be careful not to expect Randle to put up stats equal to Murray's 2014 output, but draft him confidently in hopes he outperforms his slot and finishes as a top-10 running back.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Late 3rd round

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions

Both Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley are going off the board too early to provide a sizable return on investment, leaving Abdullah as the first-year running back in the best position to vastly outperform his ADP. Reggie Bush's old role is Abdullah's floor, but the rookie's ceiling is what should make fantasy owners' mouths water. Joique Bell is 29 years old and has been very slow to recover from knee and Achilles injuries. It's well within the realm of possibility Abdullah opens the season as the Lions' feature back and never surrenders the job, especially considering the glowing reports about him coming out of Lions camp.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Late 5th round

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns

With rookie Duke Johnson missing valuable training camp snaps with a lingering hamstring strain and rumors that Terrance West is on thin ice with the team due to maturity issues, the starting job behind the Browns' excellent offensive line could fall to Crowell by default. He's a liability in the passing game, but Crowell proved to be very effective running between the tackles as a rookie and scored eight touchdowns in a committee role. Based on the thinly-veiled motivational talk coming from the Browns' coaches, it sounds like they know their best bet for a successful offense is to "feed the Crow."

Star potential: ★★★☆☆
ADP: Early 7th round

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints

With Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills in new cities, second-year wideout Brandin Cooks should lead the perennially prolific Saints passing attack in targets. A thumb injury ended Cooks' promising rookie campaign prematurely, but the young pass catcher was healthy all offseason and had plenty of time to develop chemistry with his future Hall of Fame quarterback. Hauling in 100 catches and running 1,200 yards is well within the realm of possibility for Cooks.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Late 3rd round

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles

By all accounts, Matthews has been a star at Eagles training camp. He's poised to become a national star, too. The second-year receiver is slated to step into a massive role in the Eagles' high-scoring offense. Jeremy Maclin is gone from Philly and with him go 143 passing targets, 1,318 yards, and 10 touchdowns. They won't all go to Matthews (the Eagles spent a first-round pick on wideout Nelson Agholor and he figures to play a significant role), but the opportunity exists for Matthews to step into fantasy's elite group of receivers.

Star potential: ★★★★★
ADP: Early 4th round

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars

What's the fantasy value of a player who looks a little like Dez Bryant on the field but plays in one of the NFL's most woeful offenses? It's a tough question to answer, but it's one that could prove very profitable for fantasy owners this season. Few doubt Robinson has the raw talent to break out in a big way, but he will only do it if Blake Bortles takes a big step forward. Playing in Robinson's favor is his immense talent after the catch. Bortles can feed him the ball on short, high-percentage routes and let Robinson eat up the YAC.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Late 6th round

John Brown, WR, Cardinals

Is a sleeper really a sleeper if he's the player everyone hopes to snag late in a draft? Brown's ADP was already on the rise before news of Michael Floyd's dislocated fingers emerged. Now it's skyrocketing. Even so, Brown offers tantalizing upside as a WR3. Brown has been compared to both Marvin Harrison and T.Y. Hilton, high praise but not necessarily hyperbole. Brown won't win any battles with physicality (he's 5-foot-11, 179 pounds), but his speed and ball skills are truly rare. With Carson Palmer back to full health and Larry Fitzgerald transitioning into a possession role, the door is open for Brown to become the Cardinals' primary receiving weapon.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Late 8th round

Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Philadelphia, but perhaps none will be more in need of nourishment near the end zone than Ertz. The 2013 second-rounder didn't explode onto the scene last year as many predicted, but he still managed to produce 700 yards and three touchdowns while playing less than half the Eagles' offensive snaps. If Ertz can improve as a blocker, there will be no reason for Chip Kelly to leave him on the bench in favor of Brent Celek. In such a scenario, Ertz's output could easily spike to 1,000 yards and nearly double-digit touchdowns.

Star potential: ★★★★☆
ADP: Early 8th round

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals

Eifert was poised to break out in 2014 before a Week 1 elbow injury forced him to IR. Fast-forward one year and the breakout again appears imminent. Eifert is drawing rave reviews at training camp and Andy Dalton is reportedly leaning on him like a security blanket. It's easy to forget that only two years ago the Bengals spent their first-round pick on Eifert. You can use one of the late picks in your fantasy draft to snag him and then prepare to reap the rewards.

Star potential: ★★★☆☆
ADP: Mid-13th round

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