Week 16 NFL Betting Preview: Heartbreak coming for Bills' fans

Week 16 has arrived and there are a number of great wagering opportunities on this week's card.

As always, I've linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The pick for the Monday Night Football game will be included in my Monday recap article.

San Diego Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -1.5, total of 41

The Pick: The 49ers' season has been a bigger disappointment than #EatenAlive. Jim Harbaugh probably spent the majority of the week packing his bags, and at this point, there's no conceivable reason to back San Francisco. The 49ers have been limited to 18 points or less in seven of their last eight games, as Colin Kaepernick continues to disgrace the quarterback position. To make matters worse, the 49ers are likely without their top two running backs in Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde. San Diego knocked off Baltimore in their last road game, and the 49ers should seem like a breeze after back-to-back matchups with the Patriots and Broncos. Chargers 20, 49ers 13

The Wager: Teams with nothing to play for can often be dangerous, but I'm not concerned at all about the 49ers. The team is a mess, and although it's in San Francisco, there won’t be much of a home-field advantage now that they've been eliminated from the playoffs. Chargers +1.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -7.5, total of 50.5

The Pick: It didn't take long for Mark Sanchez to revert back to the dumpster fire that we came to know in years past. The good news for the Eagles is that Sanchez may look semi-competent against an abysmal Redskins' secondary, although he did struggle against a similarly horrendous Dallas secondary a week ago. Philadelphia better hope that Sanchez figures it out because Washington hasn't given up more than 100 rushing yards since Week 8, and could put the clamps down on LeSean McCoy. Fortunately for the Eagles, Robert Griffin III gets the start for the Redskins this week. Head coach Jay Gruden doesn't trust RG3's ability to read a defense, which is pretty much essential to success in the NFL. The Redskins won't be able to protect Griffin against the Eagles' strong pass rush, so chalk up another loss for Washington. Eagles 26, Redskins 20

The Wager: This spread seems pretty accurate. Washington originally looked appealing as a divisional home dog getting more than a touchdown, but the Redskins often look appealing and find different ways to disappoint. Pass

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins

Friday Consensus Line: Dolphins -6.5, total of 42

The Pick: There really isn't much separating these two teams. A month ago I would have said that the Dolphins are a solid dark horse in the AFC, but major injuries on defense have railroaded their postseason chances. Teddy Bridgewater was solid against a strong Lions' defense a week ago, and he'll have some extra motivation in this contest as it's in his hometown. On the other side, head coach Mike Zimmer has turned the Vikings' defense into a respectable stop unit. Ryan Tannehill has reverted back to the checkdown machine that he was earlier in the season, and subsequently, the Dolphins' offense hasn't moved the ball with any consistency in the past couple of weeks. Another December with similar results for the Fish. Vikings 23, Dolphins 20

The Wager: Miami needs to win this game, and consequently, this spread is inflated. The Vikings have lost by more than six points just once in eight games, making them a huge bargain at this price. Vikings +6.5 (I doubt a +7 will become available before game time)

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -11.5, total of 49

The Pick: The Packers haven't been impressive on the road this season, but that really doesn't worry me against the lowly Bucs. Led by their incompetent head coach Lovie Smith, Tampa Bay has been somewhat competitive in recent weeks, but they'll be in for a world of hurt against Aaron Rodgers coming off of a poor outing. Rodgers threw two picks and 25 incompletions in Buffalo a week ago, but that putrid performance isn't likely to be duplicated against a Bucs' secondary that surrenders 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay has failed to surpass 17 points in four straight games, which makes it unrealistic to believe that they can keep up with the Packers’ offense. Thanks for coming out, Tampa. Packers 31, Buccaneers 13

The Wager: Green Bay should have their way with Tampa Bay, but there's a strong chance they could be looking ahead to their big divisional game against the Lions next week. The Packers probably won't be looking to run up a margin here, they'll instead look to get a win and leave town healthy. Pass

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -8.5, total of 44

The Pick: Just when I thought that Marc Trestman couldn't possibly get any dumber, he decides to bench Jay Cutler in favor of Jimmy Clausen. Cutler has been a steaming pile of trash this season, but Clausen has a legitimate case for being the worst quarterback in NFL history (aside from Blaine Gabbert). Detroit destroyed Chicago on Thanksgiving two weeks ago, and there really isn't much to indicate that this meeting will be any different. The Bears have no one to cover Calvin Johnson, and their 3-14 ATS run at Soldier Field doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. The Lions held the Vikings without a point for the final 40 minutes of last week's contest, and their defensive front should wreak havoc on Clausen all afternoon. Lions 28, Bears 10

The Wager: Detroit is in the same situation as Green Bay, in a potential look-ahead spot. The Lions are on the road facing an inferior opponent, but Detroit will simply be happy with a win. Unlike the Packers, it's also much more difficult to trust the Lions' offense which has been highly inconsistent. Pass

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -6.5, total of 56

The Pick: This game having playoff implications is more laughable than the series finale of Dexter. The Saints' dominant home-field advantage is long gone, having lost four straight home games, including a 31-point beatdown at the hands of the Panthers. Yes, the Panthers. I don't take much away from New Orleans' Monday night victory over Chicago, other than the Bears are a disgrace to mankind. Matt Ryan has found his form over the past three weeks, tossing for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, while maintaining a solid 66.8 completion percentage. The Saints' so-called defense isn't going to pose much resistance, and I'm certainly not ready to trust their offense two weeks removed from a ten-point showing against Carolina. This game is coming down to the wire and I give a slight edge to the visitor. Falcons 30, Saints 27  

The Wager: I have no idea how the Saints are favored by as much as they are. These are equal teams, and New Orleans' home-field advantage certainly isn't worth six points anymore. Falcons +6.5

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -10.5, total of 46.5

The Pick: Sleeper alert for the Patriots. New England dismantled the Dolphins in a big revenge game last week, and now they have to travel to New York to battle a Jets' squad that's actually still playing hard under Rex Ryan. The Jets held the Patriots to 27 points in New England earlier this season - the only home game in which the Pats have been held to less than 34 points since Week 3. It's been an awful season for New York, but they have an elite run defense that should be able to put the clamps down on the Pats' running game and force a bunch of third-and-longs. The last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by three points or less, and I have a feeling this one comes down to the wire again. Patriots 20, Jets 17

The Wager: There is a case to be made for a bad team playing in their Super Bowl. We've seen a couple of similar situations recently with the Raiders pulling off upsets against the Chiefs and 49ers at home in huge rivalry games. The Patriots were favored by 9.5 over the Jets at home, and now the line is larger away from home. Jets +10.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -3, total of 46.5

The Pick: The Steelers are often considered a good team because of the offensive weapons they possess. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every defensive category, despite having faced Brian Hoyer (twice), Mike Glennon, Blake Bortles, Geno Smith and Zack Mettenberger. Alex Smith has his limitations, but he should have no issues dinking-and-dunking his way through the Steelers' abysmal secondary, especially with Jamaal Charles figuring to help out on the ground against Pittsburgh's awful run defense (4.5 yards per carry). Kansas City at least has a defense that can provide some resistance, and their pass rush should be able to put Big Ben under some heat. Chiefs 24, Steelers 21

The Wager: Things have started to unravel a bit for the Chiefs, but it's hard to fault them for losses to Arizona (in Arizona) and Denver. Pittsburgh continues beating up on creampuffs, while the Chiefs are battle-tested, having played several tough games. Kansas City has covered 11 of their last 15 road games under Andy Reid. Chiefs +3

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers

Friday Consensus Line: Panthers -3.5, total of 41

The Pick: Ordinarily, I love getting behind teams coming off blowout losses, but I'm not getting behind Johnny Manziel. I don't think tha's an overreaction to last week's loss either. Sure, it was Manziel's first NFL start, but based on his performance, you'd have thought it was the first time he ever picked up a football. Carolina's defense has been playing better as of late, so unless the Browns switch back to Brian Hoyer midgame, expect Johnny Football to make your eyes bleed once again. I'm not in love with the Panthers' offense, but they should get Cam Newton back, which is an obvious upgrade over veteran journeyman (and lemon) Derek Anderson. The Browns' secondary has a major injury concern with Joe Haden's status still up in the air, and their run defense hasn't been much better, yielding 4.5 yards per carry, making Jeremy Hill look like Barry Sanders last week. Panthers 24, Browns 6

The Wager: I know I predicted a Panthers' blowout, but I'm fearful that Newton's back woes will probably turn him into a pocket passer this week, which isn't ideal when laying points with Carolina. I don't want any piece of this. Pass

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -5.5, total of 42

The Pick: Houston has folded like a cheap tent in every big game this season. The Texans were unlucky to lose Ryan Fitzpatrick to injury last week (did I just write that?), but a loss is a loss and the Texans' playoff hopes are dashed. Houston will likely turn to Case Keenum at quarterback this week, and while Keenum isn't entirely terrible, he certainly won't hold up against Baltimore's stout defensive front. The Ravens' defense sacked Blake Bortles eight times last week, and they've been dominant against horrible offenses, limiting the Panthers, Bucs, Titans and Jags to just 46 points (11.5 per game). Baltimore is on the road, which means you're likely to see a few boneheaded plays from Joe Flacco, but Ravens' offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is very familiar with the Texans and how to beat them. Ravens 24, Texans 12

The Wager: Everything points to a Ravens' victory, but Baltimore has such a terrible track record as a road favorite. This line was Texans -1 a week ago, and there's been a six-point adjustment because of last week's results and the Fitzpatrick injury. I can't lay the points. Pass

New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams

Friday Consensus Line: Rams -6.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: Get ready for the Eli Manning deer in the headlights look. The Rams' defense has been downright dominant the past month, yielding a measly 9.2 points per game over their last five contests, while forcing eight interceptions and four fumbles. With Chris Long back in the lineup, St. Louis' dynamic pass rush will tee off on Manning, who's certainly going to give the ball away at least once. New York is going to quickly learn the Rams are a major upgrade over the scrubs they've been playing the past few weeks (Redskins, Titans, Jaguars). The Giants' defense has improved recently but it’s hard to gauge how much of that can be attributed to lack of quality competition. New York can certainly keep Shaun Hill in check, but I doubt it’ll be enough to make up for their offensive woes. Rams 20, Giants 9

The Wager: The Rams haven't allowed a touchdown in three straight games, but the thought of laying a touchdown with Hill makes me ill. It's hard to imagine there could be a look-ahead spot for a team that's eliminated from postseason contention, but St. Louis may have an eye on their divisional game in Seattle next week. Pass

Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders

Friday Consensus Line: Bills -7, total of 39.5

The Pick: This is the exact type of game that Buffalo loves to lose. The Bills' defense is flying high, having held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to no touchdowns over the last two weeks. So, what makes this game dangerous? Not only are the Bills traveling to the West Coast, they have to do so knowing their game in New England next week will decide their playoff fate. Oakland's offense isn't as susceptible to Buffalo's fierce pass rush because Derek Carr gets rid of the ball so quickly. The Raiders have also come up big in their last two home contests, beating the Chiefs and 49ers as hefty underdogs. Kyle Orton is awful, and while he's often considered a game manager, he isn't even good at doing that, having tossed five picks in the past three weeks. Raiders 17, Bills 13

The Wager: Let me get this straight - Buffalo is road chalk for the first time this season, with a quarterback incapable of throwing anything but a checkdown, and they're getting nearly 80-percent of the action in this game? This line is downright insane. Raiders +7

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Friday Consensus Line: Cowboys -3.5, total of 55

The Pick: As a Cowboys' fan, the thought of Dallas' defense going up against Andrew Luck gives me pause. The Colts have turned the ball over 12 times in their last four contests, and they've still managed to win each of those games (three of them by a touchdown or more). Indianapolis should finally be able to use their running game to alleviate some pressure from Luck, as the Cowboys' defense surrenders 4.3 yards per carry. This seems like a prime letdown spot for Dallas, returning home following an upset of the Eagles on Sunday night. With DeMarco Murray nursing a hand injury, and the Cowboys incessant tendency to play like garbage at home, an upset is on the horizon. Colts 31, Cowboys 23

The Wager: This line has jumped from a pick'em a week ago to Dallas being a three-point favorite. Indianapolis isn't as good away from home, but they'll be playing on the fast track at Cowboys Stadium, and Dallas doesn't have much of a home-field advantage anyway. Colts +3.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -7.5, total of 37

The Pick: Bruce Arians has done an outstanding job with this Cardinals' team, but there's nothing he can do to prepare Ryan Lindley for the Seahawks' defense. Seattle has given up 27 points - total - in their last four contests. Seven teams gave up 27 or more points last week alone. The Seahawks limited Drew Stanton and the Cardinals' offense to just 204 yards in their last matchup, and now Arizona is even more limited at quarterback. I'm not going to praise the Seattle offense for being anything more than mediocre, but they do protect the ball well, and Arizona can't win this game unless they find a way to create some turnovers. The Cardinals have found ways to win all year and they're perfect at home, but they're significantly outmatched in this one. Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3

The Wager: The total in this game sits at 36.5, which makes it extremely difficult to lay more than a touchdown with the visitor. I don't see the Cardinals scoring a touchdown, but they're the ones getting points. Seattle's offense could struggle to score, just like they did last week before Ed Hochuli gifted them a touchdown. Pass

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year's WestGate SuperContest. I have yet to finalize my picks for this week, but will be playing some combination of the games that I advised in my recommended wagers above. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary