Week 15 NFL Betting Recap: The Packers are indeed beatable

The 15th Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and, as always, there's a lot to take away from this week's action. We're very late into the season, so not all of these takeaways will be applicable to betting opportunities this season, but they're important to note going forward.

The Packers' loss in Buffalo certainly shocked a lot of people. I predicted that the Bills would win outright in my Friday preview article, but I never expected them to hold Aaron Rodgers to 17-of-42 passing, 185 yards, and no touchdowns. That's just unheard of. But now that I look back on the Packers' season, The Packers' offense always struggles on the road against the league's better defenses. Everyone is always enamored with the Packers' offense when they're destroying the dredges of the league, but look at what Green Bay has accomplished away from home against the league's better defenses this season:

• Week 1 - Seahawks 36, Packers 16 (Rodgers: 23/33, 189 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT)
• Week 3 - Lions 19, Packers 7 (Rodgers: 16/27, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT)
• Week 6 - Packers 27, Dolphins 24 (Rodgers: 24/42, 264 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, Packers trailed by seven with four minutes remaining)
• Week 12 - Packers 24, Vikings 21 (Rodgers: 19/29, 209 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT)
• Week 15 - Bills 21, Packers 13 (Rodgers: 17/42, 185 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT)

Five games against five good defenses where the Packers averaged 17.4 points per game and Aaron Rodgers never topped 264 passing yards. If the Packers have to go to Seattle for a playoff game, we may see a repeat of what happened back in Week 1.

The Seahawks are still beatable though. Seattle has looked extremely impressive on the defensive end in the past four weeks, surrendering a total of just 27 points. With that being said, the Seahawks still lack the offensive firepower to be considered a shoe-in for the Super Bowl out of the NFC. When Doug Baldwin is your big play threat on offense, there's a legitimate problem. If Seattle falls behind in a game and is forced to abandon the run, they may not live to see another game in the postseason. Don't get me wrong - they're still an elite team, but I would say last week's performance against the Eagles inspired much more confidence than this week's against the 49ers.

Seahawks/49ers was particularly frustrating for many bettors (including myself) because of one blown call that altered the outcome of the game. This is just a reminder that there is such a thing as having the right side, and getting the wrong result. The 49ers closed as a 9.5-point underdog in most spots yesterday, and they stayed within that number until early in the fourth quarter. With Seattle facing a 3rd-and-5 on the 49ers' 15-yard line, Russell Wilson threw an incomplete pass under pressure. However, in a non-shocking turn of events, the 49ers were flagged for roughing the passer in what was one of the worst calls I've ever seen in my life. Maybe Pete Carroll's incessant complaining finally got to the refs. Maybe Ed Hochuli couldn't see the play over his muscles. Whatever the reason may have been, this one call cost the 49ers a chance at winning the game, and it cost anyone with 49ers +9.5 or less a good chance at the cover.

On a similar note, sometimes you can just get lucky or unlucky. If you bet on the Texans, Red Skins, or Titans (why would you do this to yourself?) yesterday, you know exactly what I mean. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy and Jake Locker all went down with injuries early in this contest. When you're handicapping games, you're assuming that the starting quarterback will play the whole way through, but sometimes injuries play a part in the outcome of games. In the case of the Texans and Titans, it wouldn't seem like you could possibly downgrade from Fitzpatrick and McCoy, but both Tom Savage and Charlie Whitehurst looked completely lost. It's no wonder both teams put up 21 points combined. As for the Redskins, McCoy's injury probably improved their chances of winning, but Jeff Triplette made sure that it would be difficult to do so when he overturned this apparent touchdown at the end of the first half. Santana Moss was irate, and Triplette himself was so rattled that he couldn't find his flag. All in all, it's important to remember that injuries and referees play a factor in the outcome, and that you shouldn't judge your wagers solely on the basis of wins and losses.

As for some other takeaways from Sunday:

• The revenge spot proved very fruitful in Week 15. The Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots, and Cowboys all avenged embarrassing losses with double-digit victories this week. All four covered their respective spreads.
• The NFL has become extremely soft. I'm all for player safety, especially when it comes to head shots, but if this is considered roughing the passer, then this league may as well become a non-contact league.
• The Colts don't lose within their division. Every time the Colts play a divisional opponent, they win, and they usually cover. Granted, this wasn't the most impressive performance, and they pushed at the closing number of -7, but this trend has been a winner ever since Andrew Luck took over at quarterback in Indianapolis.
• Johnny Manziel sucks. I don't think I have to go into detail here - Manziel was pitiful. I'm careful not to overreact to a small sample size, but I never felt that Manziel would be a good pro, so I'm almost ready to completely write him off after just one game.
• Angry Patriots = $$$. As soon as I found out that Bill Belichick had posted quotes from the Dolphins' players after their Week 1 victory over the Patriots around the locker room, I knew where this one was going. New England was actually dominated soundly in the first half (although they led 14-13 at halftime), but they came out of the locker room with some fire. Thanks for coming out, Miami.
• The Titans are even worse than I thought, and I thought that they were the worst team of the last decade. The Jaguars' string of 42 straight games as an underdog will be snapped when they host the Titans on Thursday Night Football this week. Shame on you Tennessee, shame on you.
• The Chargers are the definition of mediocre. San Diego beats the teams that they should beat, and loses to the teams that they should lose to. Aside from a Week 2 upset of the Seahawks, this has been the recurring theme of the Chargers' season. Next week they face another mediocre squad in the 49ers, so I'm assuming they'll tie.
• Teams that face the Seahawks in the previous week are great fades. Eight straight teams have lost their next game after playing the Seahawks. This makes complete sense, too. Teams get up for their game against the defending Super Bowl champions and find it difficult to match that effort in consecutive weeks. Seattle is quite a physical football team, which also plays a big factor. The same trend used to apply to the Steelers when they had a dominant defense, so I truly believe there is something to this. Avoid the 49ers at all costs next week.
• This ain't your old Tony Romo. The Cowboys are usually known for collapsing in prime-time games, but they're 3-2 in prime-time contests this season, with one of those two losses coming against the Redskins where Romo got injured. Romo's numbers away from home are elite - 71.6% completion rate, 8.4 YPA, 18 TD, 1 INT. Romo will never get his due because the majority of the population loves to cheer against the Cowboys, but he's had one hell of a season.

Monday Night Football

This line really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The Cowboys were a four-point favorite in Chicago for a Thursday prime-time game a few weeks ago, so the Saints certainly aren't deserving of this price tag.

Unfortunately, the Bears are awful. Brandon Marshall is out for the season and Chicago's injury report is longer than Apocalypse Now: Redux. The Saints have everything to play for here, and they've played surprisingly well against inferior opponents on the road this season. I won't trust the Saints with my money but there's no chance in hell I'd consider the Bears. Pass

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL analysts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. It has been a less than stellar year with my plays, and this week was no different with another mediocre showing. If you're interested in fading my plays on a weekly basis, you can track my progress here.

Here's a quick recap of my plays this week:

1. Falcons +2.5 (L) - I probably should have been able to avoid this game because it was a bad number. I knew that Julio Jones was questionable and that should have been reason enough to pass. Bad play.
2. Redskins +6.5 (L) - No regrets. I still don't believe that the Giants were deserving of their price tag, and the Redskins covered for the majority of the game.
3. Bills +4.5 (W) - Great line value compared to the closing line and a relatively sweat free game. Solid play.
4. 49ers +10 (P) - Right side, wrong result. The 49ers got jobbed by Ed Hochuli, and unfortunately there's just nothing that I can do about that.
5. Cowboys +3 (W) - I'll admit that I suffered a minor stroke when Dallas blew their 21-point lead, but as a Cowboys' fan, I feel like I have a pretty good read on the team, and I loved this spot for them. Good call.

Week 16 Early Thoughts

It’s never too soon to start looking at next week's action. Here are my thoughts on every Week 16 game, using early consensus lines. 

• Titans @ Jags (-3 -105) - It's almost inconceivable to think that the Jags could be favored over anyone, but this may actually be a short price. The Titans are historically bad.
• Chargers @ 49ers (-3 +100) - The 49ers are now officially eliminated from postseason contention and they just played the Seahawks. I like the underdog.
• Eagles @ Redskins (NL) - The advanced line was Eagles -8.5, which seems asinine with Mark Sanchez under center. I'll be looking at the Redskins if the number is posted in that range.
• Vikings @ Dolphins (-7 -105) - I can't lay this many points with Miami. Based on play in the last month alone, these teams are actually pretty equal.
• Packers @ Bucs (+10 -105) - I know that the Packers aren't a good road team, but they're almost certainly going to score 40+ here. Can Josh McCown match that output? Highly doubtful.
• Lions @ Bears (NL) - The Lions will be favored here, but tonight's game in Chicago has some bearing on what the opener will be. Matt Stafford is so difficult to trust laying points, but the Lions are a far superior team.
• Falcons @ Saints (NL) - The advanced line was Saints -7, which is mind boggling. New Orleans' home field advantage isn't worth a whole lot anymore, and these teams are fairly equal.
• Patriots @ Jets (+10) - The Jets are one of the few appealing home dogs next week. New York was this big of an underdog when they traveled to New England earlier this season. Inflation central.
• Chiefs @ Steelers (-3 -125) - This line is pretty much where it should be with both teams being relatively equal. I really don't have a strong opinion one way or the other right now.
• Browns @ Panthers (NL) - Both teams' quarterback statuses are up in the air, so we probably won't see a line until later in the week. The Browns' blowout loss will probably inflate this number.
• Ravens @ Texans (+4) - The Texans were 1-point favorites in the advanced line, but now they're 4-point underdogs? Is the downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick to any other quarterback worth that much?
• Giants @ Rams (-4.5) - The Giants are playing better but I still maintain that the Rams are a good football team. Not sure I want to be spotting 4.5 points with that offense though.
• Bills @ Raiders (+5.5) - This is the super upset special next week. Oakland is bad, but Kyle Orton is an abomination. Asking him to win by more than six on the road is a tough ask. Buffalo will be flat following their monumental upset of Green Bay.
• Colts @ Cowboys (NL) - The advanced line was a pick 'em, but Dallas will probably become a small favorite after last night's upset victory. The Colts have wrapped up the division, but I still give them the upper hand.
• Seahawks @ Cardinals (+7.5 -105) - Ryan Lindley has absolutely no hope of beating the Seahawks' defense, but can I lay 7.5 with the Seahawks' offense on the road? Tough call here. Line seems right.
• Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5) - Peyton Manning in prime time against Andy Dalton. It'll be a square play but I know where my money will be.