Week 13 NFL Betting Preview: The Chiefs will 'upset' the Broncos

Week 13 has arrived.

The Thanksgiving Day card didn't really live up to the hype with three blowouts on Thursday, but there are certainly some big games to look forward to on Sunday, including a potential Super Bowl preview.

I went with the basic "so and so will upset so and so" title for this week's article because it was tough to find a recurring theme this week. Last week, I succeeded in fading big favorites that were in look-ahead spots, but this week is just a big, jumbled mishmash of games. In most situations, my numbers favored one side, but the situation or spot favored the other side. Consequently, I had a tough time settling on this week's card other than a few plays that stood out immediately. Regardless, I've felt a lot better about my capping in the past few weeks, so I'm confident in this week's card.

Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The pick for the Monday Night Football game will be included in my Monday recap article. 

Washington Redskins @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -9.5, total of 51

The Pick: Indianapolis was limited to just three points in the first half last week as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ front seven put relentless pressure on Andrew Luck. The Redskins have a strong pass rush as well (27 sacks) and will give the Colts the same problems that they faced last week, especially with guard Hugh Thornton expected to miss the game.

The Redskins offense should get a boost at quarterback, as Robert Griffin III has been benched in favor of Colt McCoy. McCoy is a subpar quarterback, but it’s hard to imagine that he can possibly be a downgrade to RG3 right now and he may face a Colts’ secondary without cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, both of whom are questionable with injuries. The Colts also can’t defend the run very well (4.5 yards per carry), which poses issues against Alfred Morris, who is one of the league’s better running backs. With Indianapolis having basically wrapped up the AFC South, don’t be surprised if they look lackadaisical against a Redskins’ squad that will playing hard for McCoy. Colts 24, Redskins 21

The Wager: The Redskins continue to be undervalued and they’re in a pretty good spot here. The team should be re-energized by the change at quarterback and the Colts simply have nothing to play for at this point, as a first-round bye seems like an outside possibility at best. Washington hung tight with the San Francisco 49ers on the road last week despite its abysmal quarterback play. Redskins +9.5 (I'll grade myself at the consensus line right now, but you'd be best served to hold out or shop for a +10)

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Titans -7, total of 43

The Pick: Arian Foster gashed the Tennessee Titans for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns when the Houston Texans defeated the Titans 30-16 back in Week 8. Foster is expected to return to action this week, which is great news, because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back under center for Houston. Tennessee’s defense isn’t particularly good at stopping anything, but they can at least sell out to stop the run without the threat of Fitzpatrick burning them down the field.

Zach Mettenberger has been marginally better than awful thus far in his NFL career, but he’s already seen the Texans defense once this season, so he’ll at least have some idea of how to beat them. Mettenberger is about as mobile as Byron Leftwich, so he also catches a break with Jadeveon Clowney expected to miss this contest for Houston. The Titans can focus their efforts on trying to shut down J.J. Watt and attack a secondary that is hurting without cornerback Kareem Jackson and somehow made Andy Dalton look like Dan Marino last week. Texans 19, Titans 16

The Wager: There are a few exceptions here and there, but I like backing divisional underdogs that are getting more than a touchdown. Tennessee is an abysmal football team, but I think the Texans are spotting too many points with a game manager at quarterback. Betting against sub-.500 teams that are laying points has been a cash cow this season. Hold your nose. Titans +7

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Friday Consensus Line: Bills -3 -120, total of 42

The Pick: There’s no doubt that the Cleveland Browns have taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule to produce their 7-4 record. Cleveland finds itself in another favorable situation with the Buffalo Bills having to play on a short week after last week’s “Snowgate.” Brian Hoyer has taken his fair share of (deserved) criticism, but he continues to lead the Browns to victories, even if they don’t come in the most impressive fashion. The return of Josh Gordon and emergence of Isaiah Crowell gives the Browns some legitimate weapons on offense.

Unfortunately for the Browns, their defense is extremely depleted, as there’s a chance that five starters could miss this week’s action due to injuries. Fred Jackson looks healthier with each passing week and the Browns won’t offer much resistance to the Bills’ running game without half of their starting personnel. Kyle Orton will continue to be Kyle Orton, but that should be enough if he continues to avoid mistakes. Bills 26, Browns 23

The Wager: There’s really not much separating these two teams, but it’s tough to back the Browns with their cluster of injuries on defense. Cleveland does have a tendency to play close games though, which makes them an intriguing teaser option, but at the end of the day, it really wouldn’t shock me if they got obliterated here. Pass

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -6 -115, total of 45.5

The Pick: The San Diego Chargers have had a major fall from grace in the past month and this doesn’t appear to be a great spot to get back on track. Aside from having to travel across the country for an early start time, they battle a team that is simply stellar at home. Baltimore has already trucked the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Tennessee Titans on home soil and, based on what the Chargers have shown in the last month, they’re only marginally better than those squads. Philip Rivers has regressed and his offensive line is going to have major issues holding up against a stout Ravens’ defensive line.

If you’ve read my write-ups in the past, you’re familiar with Joe Flacco’s home/road splits. Simply put, Flacco is a great quarterback at M&T Bank Stadium. The Chargers' defense has gotten some bodies back in recent weeks, but they still have no semblance of a pass rush whatsoever, so they don’t stand much of a chance of shutting down Flacco. San Diego’s victories this season have come against the Oakland Raiders (twice), Jags, New York Jets and St. Louis Rams. Baltimore is certainly not one of those squads. Ravens 23, Chargers 13

The Wager: There isn’t really much spread value with the Ravens. Baltimore was -3.5 on the advanced line, but that number has skyrocketed because of last week’s results. I’m confident that Baltimore will win this game, so I’ll use them in the first leg of a teaser instead of playing the spread. Ravens +0.5 (teaser leg 1/2 ... I needed to play a 6.5-point teaser to get the best number on the second leg of the teaser)

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Friday Consensus Line: Giants -3, total of 45

The Pick: Some people still believe that the Giants are undervalued because they’ve faced a ridiculously difficult schedule in the past few months. I am not one of those people. The Jags are surely a downgrade to New York’s recent opponents, but I’m not sure that really matters. Last I checked, the Giants are still quarterbacked by Eli Manning, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns since the beginning of last season. The Jags actually boast one of the league’s best pass rushes in the league (33 sacks), so expect Manning to make some mistakes under duress again this week.

Fortunately for the Giants, Blake Bortles appears to be a clone of Blaine Gabbert. Bortles has a stellar 8-to-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has been picked off at least once in every start this season. My apologies if you just threw up some Thanksgiving leftovers reading that. Jacksonville will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Giants’ putrid run defense (4.9 ypc), but Bortles will inevitably do something stupid to cost his team. I honestly have no clue who’s going to win this one, so as per usual, I’ll side with the dog to try and be a hero. Jags 23, Giants 20

The Wager: Betting this game never even crossed my mind. Pass

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday Consensus Line: Bengals -3.5 -105, total of 44.5

The Pick: Tampa Bay is just 2-9, but they continue to be competitive on a weekly basis. Last week, they were unlucky not to cover (or possibly win) when the officials screwed them over on a terrible replay ruling. The Bucs defense has played surprisingly well since their bye week, limiting opponents to just 19 points per game in that time. Cincinnati’s offense has been better in recent weeks, with A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard back in the lineup, but there’s always the potential for Andy Dalton to blow up in any given game. The Bengals’ offensive line took a serious hit losing right tackle Andre Smith for the season.

Unfortunately for Tampa, its offense continues to struggle. Scoring 13 points against a wretched Bears defense doesn’t exactly inspire confidence going forward. Josh McCown struggles mightily in the face of pressure, but he may actually have a clean pocket this week against a Bengals’ pass rush that has recorded a measly 14 sacks this season. With Cincinnati facing a huge game against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week, they could be ripe for an upset on Sunday. Bucs 26, Bengals 23

The Wager: The Bucs seem to be in a great spot, but they’ve failed in those situations many times this season. I also think this line is just right, as my math model doesn’t see an edge with either side. With that being said, I don’t see the Bengals building up a margin here, so I’ll use the Bucs to close out the second leg of a teaser. Bucs +10 (teaser leg 2/2)

Oakland Raiders @ St. Louis Rams

Friday Consensus Line: Rams -7 +100, total of 42

The Pick: The Rams continue to perform well, as they were a stupid Shaun Hill interception away from possibly upsetting the Chargers in San Diego last week. St. Louis has registered 21 sacks in their last six games, but they now face an Oakland offensive line that does a fantastic job of keeping its quarterback upright. With that being said, Derek Carr doesn’t scare anyone. The Rams can focus on shutting down the emerging Latavius Murray and force Carr to continuously throw his third-down checkdowns.

Shaun Hill should conceivably have a better game against the Raiders than he did against the Chargers, as Oakland has several holes in its secondary. Coming off a big emotional win against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, there’s a good chance that the Raiders could be caught flat in this spot as well, especially at an early start time. St. Louis may not have the most prolific offense in the league, but they shouldn’t have an issue outscoring Oakland. Rams 23, Raiders 12

The Wager: The Rams have knocked off the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos this season, which goes to show that they’re not as bad as their record indicates. But going from an underdog to a full touchdown favorite is a completely different dynamic and I’m simply not ready to trust the Rams in that role. Pass

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -5, total of 54

The Pick: The New Orleans Saints’ struggles away from home are well documented. New Orleans may welcome a road trip after losing three straight home games, but I don’t think they have enough talent on defense to hold up in Pittsburgh. The Steelers just watched the Ravens' offense obliterate the Saints, and they’ll likely be able to replicate that same game plan. New Orleans is without Jairus Byrd and Rafael Bush in the secondary, which essentially gives them no hope of slowing down Antonio Brown and company. And to make matters worse, they have to deal with Le’Veon Bell out of the backfield.

The Saints will have to match the Steelers’ offensive output, but this isn’t the same Saints offense from years past. Drew Brees has had issues with ball security and the Steelers defense will get some reinforcements with the returns of Ryan Shazier, Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. Having suffered a deflating loss on Monday and having to play the Steelers coming off of a bye on a short week, I just don’t see the Saints pulling it out on the road. Steelers 35, Saints 24

The Wager: I would have loved to take the Steelers this week, but all line value has been sapped because of the Saints’ dreadful performance on Monday night. Pittsburgh has a tendency to play up or down to the level of its opponent and, with a big game on deck against the Bengals next week, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Steelers were flat here. Pass

Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Vikings -2.5, total of 42.5

The Pick: Somehow the Panthers are still alive in the NFC South, but I’m not sure that their will to win outweighs the fact that they’re simply awful. Carolina is coming off a bye week, but unless they miraculously discovered some elite talent in their practice squad, Cam Newton will still be targeting arguably the worst receiving corps in the league. Newton has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in his past seven starts combined and the Minnesota Vikings’ secondary has played well in recent weeks. With no running game whatsoever, the Panthers will likely still struggle to move the ball.

Teddy Bridgewater showed some early promise for the Vikings, but he hasn’t played all that well over his last few starts. Bridgewater’s noodle arm is posing major issues with Minnesota playing outdoors now and it’s not helping that he isn’t getting much pass protection either. The Vikings are also coming off a tightly contested divisional loss to the Green Bay Packers, so it’s hard to predict where their heads will be at here. Minnesota has at least shown some semblance of quality football in the past month though. Vikings 17, Panthers 14

The Wager: I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen here. This line suggests that the Panthers are the better team, which I vehemently disagree with, but Minnesota is in such a terrible spot that I can’t possibly pull the trigger. Pass

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Cardinals -2, total of 44.5

The Pick: Atlanta is a train wreck. The Falcons offense simply can’t protect Matt Ryan and that’s going to be a major issue against a stout Cardinals’ front seven. Atlanta also can’t take any pressure off of Matty Ice by running the ball, so this seems like an optimal game for Arizona’s defense to go to work.

Drew Stanton was awful in Seattle last week, but I’m not going to read too much into a performance against a good defense. The Falcons can’t get off the field. Atlanta gave up 475 total yards to Brian Hoyer and the Browns’ offense last week, giving me absolutely no reason to believe that they’re capable of shutting down anyone in this league. With this being a late game, the effects of the Cardinals’ travel are greatly reduced and they should have their way with a Falcons’ squad that is 0-7 outside of their division this season. Cardinals 27, Falcons 16

The Wager: I’m always weary of betting on big public plays, but I think this line is way off. Arizona may be a fraud but they’re still infinitely better than Atlanta, even with Stanton under center. The entire NFC South is a gong show and worthy of a fade when the situation is right. Bruce Arians versus Mike Smith is one of the biggest coaching mismatches you’ll see all season. Cardinals -2

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -3 -120, total of 57.5

The Pick: There’s no denying that the Packers have been a machine at home. Aaron Rodgers has a string of 29 touchdown passes without an interception at Lambeau Field, but Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have as good a chance as any other cornerback duo in the league at shutting down Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The Packers have feasted on many garbage defenses, but this will be a huge step up in class.

The Patriots, meanwhile, have won seven games in a row, obliterating every team in their path. Unlike the Packers, New England has been disposing of quality opponents, with victories over the Broncos, Colts and Lions in their past three games. Tom Brady is back in elite form and there’s simply no one on the Packers defense that is capable of shutting down Rob Gronkowski. Bill Belichick is still the best in the business when it comes to devising game plans against elite teams and I trust the Pats’ coaching staff to once again have this team ready. Patriots 38, Packers 28

The Wager: The Packers have been underdogs four times this year. They’ve won all four games by a combined 83 points. You could tell me 100 percent of the betting public was on New England and I’d still take the Patriots here. Patriots +3 (but you should probably hold out for +3.5, which may show up)

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Friday Consensus Line: Chiefs +1.5, total of 49.5

The Pick: Forget the Chiefs’ loss to the Raiders last week, Kansas City was predictably flat in Oakland because they spent all week looking ahead to this game against Denver. We’ve already seen what the Chiefs can do at home in prime time when they dismantled the Patriots back in Week 4. Denver is looking vulnerable, as they have numerous injuries on both sides of the ball. They barely escaped at home against the Miami Dolphins last week and Kansas City is almost a carbon copy of Miami. Denver’s offense hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road this season, and they’ll struggle to hold up against the Chiefs’ outstanding pass rush (31 sacks).

Kansas City moved the chains with ease against Denver back in Week 2, and the Broncos' defense has gotten a lot worse since then. In back-to-back weeks, the Rams and Dolphins ran the ball at will against Denver, which is music to Jamaal Charles’s ears. Alex Smith constantly gets knocked for his refusal to throw the deep ball, but he’s very good at keeping the chains moving and eating up clock. With Manning on the sideline for long periods at a time, it’ll be difficult for the future Hall-of-Famer to establish any rhythm. Upset alert. Chiefs 27, Broncos 24

The Wager: The Chiefs are in the best spot of the week. I could list all of the situational trends that favor them, but I’d be writing for days. Denver’s road game leaves much to be desired and I honestly believe that Kansas City should be favored here. Chiefs +1.5

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. I finished last week at 3-2, which at this point, can be considered a Festivus miracle. I'm off to a 1-1 start this week, winning with the Lions -7 but falling flat with 49ers -1. Rounding out this week's card are the Redskins, Titans and Chiefs. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary