Week 12 NFL Betting Recap: The Cardinals are frauds

The 12th Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and as always, there's a lot to take away from the week's action. I didn't really learn anything new, but a lot of the points discussed in the last few weeks' recaps have now been confirmed, starting with the fact the Cardinals are frauds.

I know what you're thinking: how can you anoint the Cardinals as frauds after only their second loss of the season? Well, it's pretty easy actually. If you watched any of the Cardinals' offensive possessions Sunday, you're now fully aware that this team is not capable of being successful with Drew Stanton under center. Arizona boasts a great coaching staff and defense an atrocity of a quarterback, unfortunately. Stanton got away with multiple potential interceptions last week against Detroit, and although he only threw one this week, he was guilty of staring down his receivers on many occasions.

I guess I could give Arizona a bit of a break because Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play. That being said, the Seahawks have already been upset on home turf by the Cowboys this season, and played close games with the Raiders and Giants heading into the fourth quarter. Seattle isn't as unbeatable at CenturyLink as they were a season ago. At the end of the day, I don't believe the Cardinals are a bad football team (evidenced by their 9-2 record), but I don't think they're capable of making a run into January with Stanton at quarterback.

As discussed in my Week 12 Betting Preview, there were many favorites in potential look-ahead spots this week. I'm not entirely sure that the look-ahead spot is real (I haven't been able to quantify this), but a lot of this week's big favorites had some major issues with inferior opponents.

Green Bay closed as a 7.5-point favorite on the road in Minnesota. Were the Packers caught looking ahead to their matchup with the Patriots in Week 13? Well, it's really hard to say. Green Bay didn't come close to hitting the form we've seen from them in recent weeks, but that may have simply been because they were out on the road. The Packers were 2-3 away from Lambeau Field heading into Sunday's game, so it really shouldn't come as a surprise that they eked out a win against the Vikings. This game could also have been considered Minnesota's Super Bowl, which surely brought an inspired effort from the Vikings. At the end of the day, I'm really not sure the look ahead had anything to do with the outcome.

New England surely didn't have any issues with the look ahead to their game against the Packers next week. Granted, they were playing a strong team in the Lions, so there's a good chance they were completely focused on the task at hand. But the Eagles also have a big game on deck next week against the Cowboys, and they still managed to rather easily dispose of an inferior opponent in the Titans. And then of course the Broncos, 49ers, and Cowboys, all with big games on the horizon in Week 13, struggled to put away the Dolphins, Redskins, and Giants. All in all, I still have no idea whether the look ahead/trap game/sandwich game actually means anything. I'll gladly use it to support my arguments going forward, but it would be a downright lie if I told you I truly believe it holds any water.

Awful coaching was on display yet again in Week 12. Let's start in Atlanta where Falcons head coach Mike Smith must have placed a six-figure wager on the Browns +3 with his local bookie. With just under three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the Falcons took over at midfield following a Brian Hoyer interception. Matt Ryan eventually moved Atlanta into field-goal range, but rather than letting the clock drain, Smith ridiculously kept burning timeouts to stop the clock. Smith's sheer stupidity allowed the Browns to keep all three of their timeouts, which proved extremely useful in Cleveland's seven-play, 61-yard drive that ended in a game-winning field goal. Sorry Falcons' ML bettors, you got Smith'd.

In New England, Jim Caldwell was up to his usual logic-defying coaching. Take a look at the stats at halftime.

Despite being outgained by just over 50 yards, the Lions trailed 24-6 at the half. How is this possible? Well, Caldwell seemed to have forgotten that the Lions were playing the Patriots in New England.

Here is the final play in each of Detroit's three drives in the second quarter.

Fourth-and-two, NE 2: Matt Prater 20yd FG attempt is GOOD.
Fourth-and-three, NE 39: Sam Martin punts for 32 yards to NE 7.
Fourth-and-10, NE 35: Matt Prater 53yd FG attempt is NO GOOD.

Three drives into New England territory, three points. Thanks for coming out Caldwell. I used to think that there couldn't possibly be a downgrade from Jim Schwartz, but Caldwell is proving to be equally inept. I'd love to outline more examples of coaching incompetence this weekend (and believe me, there are many examples), but I may have an ulcer doing so.

Speaking of ulcers, I nearly had one when this play was ruled a fumble, reviewed, and not overturned. I understand the play was close, but when you can freeze a play and clearly see that Jackson has his forearm down with possession, that should be conclusive. A similar situation occurred on Sunday Night Football when the Cowboys were jobbed on a clear Rashad Jennings fumble in the red zone. I'm continually amazed at how NFL officiating seems to hit a new low every week.

Some other takeaways from this week:

Zach Mettenberger is god awful. The Titans need a franchise quarterback.
Robert Griffin III is god awful. The Redskins need a franchise quarterback. It's a good thing they traded those 47 draft picks to the Rams to get RG3 in the first place. Shrewd move.
The Vikings have found a legitimate head coach in Mike Zimmer. Unlike Caldwell, Zimmer actually has some testicular fortitude, and made the gutsy calls it took to give Minnesota a chance to beat Green Bay.
The Titans and Jaguars should not be considered professional football teams. The Jags sacked Andrew Luck five times and recovered three fumbles, yet somehow managed to lose by 20 points. Good job, good effort. I don't even know where to start with the Titans. Everything is bad.
The Bengals are starting to pick up steam. Cincinnati has played back-to-back solid road games, which is extremely encouraging for a team that has struggled on the road for so long. Marvin Lewis even went for it on fourth-and-goal yesterday! The Bengals didn't get the touchdown, but needless to say, my jaw hit the floor when Cincinnati actually snapped the ball.
The Bears are still garbage. Only 204 yards of total offense against the Bucs. LOLOLOLOL. Congratulations to Walt Coleman, who surely cashed a spread wager on Chicago.
Russell Wilson is still average. You may still believe that Russell Wilson is good since the media likes to talk him up every week, but he's pretty atrocious. Wilson was sacked seven times by Arizona, with a number of those sacks occurring when he had plenty of time in the pocket.
The 49ers' offense is gross. It is painful to watch San Francisco try to move the ball. Their offensive line sucks, Frank Gore looks like a 90-year-old man, and Colin Kaepernick has the IQ of a newborn walrus.
The Dolphins are legit, but they were pretty lucky Sunday. Miami isn't going to win the Super Bowl, but they have a stout defense, and they're getting contributions from everyone on offense. They are much better than I believed they were a couple of months ago. That being said, they fumbled the ball three times yesterday and recovered every single one. You can call that good football, but I like to call that horseshoes.
The Rams continue to play hard. Most losing teams tend to fold like a bag of cheap tents (see Jags, Titans, etc.), but the Rams have given major issues to the Chargers, Broncos, Cardinals, and 49ers in the past month. St. Louis is 4-7 this season but they're better than half of the teams in football, especially with Shaun Hill under center.

Monday Night Football

Ravens at Saints

To be quite honest, I have no strong opinion on this game. I'm sure the common thought among the betting public is that there's no way the Saints can lose a third straight home game.

People haven't quite caught on to the fact that the Saints are trash, though. Everyone is expecting New Orleans to suddenly revert back to the dynamic team from years past, but Drew Brees has regressed and their defense is non-existent. Baltimore is the better team, and they're coming off the bye.

That being said, a) I don't trust Joe Flacco at all on the road, and b) I think the line is right because the Saints' home-field advantage in a primetime game is worth more than the standard three points. After all, they did beat the Packers in a similar spot a few weeks ago. Gun to my head, I'm taking the Saints, but there's no way I'm betting it.

I ran a system using SportsInsights' BetLabs tool. Here are the filters that I used:

The game is played during the regular season
The team's home streak is exactly three games
The team is the favorite

Teams in this role are 23-31 ATS (42.6 percent) for an abysmal -16.5 percent return on investment since 2004. Adding another filter that stipulates that the team is below .500 drops those numbers to 9-14 ATS (39.1 percent) for a ROI of -22.2 percent. Pass

Jets at Bills (in Detroit)

I hate not being able to have some action with two games on Monday night, but again, I think the line is right here.

Buffalo is in their usual November free-fall mode, but they're still better than the Jets. New York has a couple of edges, coming off their bye week and not having to deal with the epic snowstorm in Buffalo, but I need to be getting more than 2.5/3 points if I'm going to consider backing the Jets. Pass

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL analysts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. The apocalypse must be here because I actually had a winning week for once. Somehow I managed to reverse the trend of 2-3 weeks with a rare 3-2 week. If you're interested, you can track my progress here.

Here's a quick recap of my plays this week:

Raiders +7 (W) - It got dicey at one point in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders covered from start to finish. Easy win here.
Lions +7 (L) - I should have known Caldwell would be content to settle for field goals. Terrible pick.
Vikings +9.5 (W) - Almost the exact same reasoning as the Raiders. If you're going to spot me this many points with a home dog in their "Super Bowl," I'm going to take it.
Redskins +9.5 (W) - Another relatively sweat-free cover. San Francisco's offense is abymsal. I could never wrap my head around them laying more than a touchdown.
Bucs +5.5 (L) - The Vincent Jackson fumble changed the game. Tampa was the better of the two teams, so this was a tough one to swallow.

Week 13 Early Thoughts

It’s never too soon to start looking at next week's action. Here are my thoughts on every Week 13 game, using early consensus lines.

Bears @ Lions (-6.5) - Detroit is infinitely better than Chicago but I'm not sure I have the heart to swallow points with this offense right now.
Eagles @ Cowboys (NL) - We're probably going to see Dallas -3 here, and I'd have to look to the Eagles at that price. Schedule makers have done Dallas no favors with a Sunday Night Football game followed by a 4:30 p.m. ET start Thursday.
Seahawks @ 49ers (-1.5) - I view both of these teams as equals, so this looks like a bit of a short price with San Francisco right now.
Redskins @ Colts (-9.5) - Line looks about right. No one will be in a hurry to bet Washington, but they're out on the road where they're actually better. Skins or nothing.
Titans @ Texans (-6.5) - The Titans are just plain awful. I never thought Houston would look appealing as a touchdown favorite.
Browns @ Bills (NL) - Likely looking at a pick'em range here. My view of this one will depend on Monday's Bills' performance. Cleveland is a major fade going forward, but Buffalo may also be.
Chargers @ Ravens (NL) - Baltimore is a strong home team and the Chargers look awful right now. That being said, anything above -4/-4.5 would be an inflated line in my eyes.
Giants @ Jags (NL) - Giants will be short road favorites and I will want nothing to do with this game. Fast forward to Friday's Week 13 Betting Preview where I will surely have a play on this game.
Bengals @ Bucs (+3.5) - Bengals find themselves in the road favorite role instead of the road underdog role. Hard to back Tampa with so few points though.
Raiders @ Rams (-7) - Rams find themselves in unfamiliar territory as favorites. Do the Raiders have anything to play for now that they've won a game though?
Saints @ Steelers (NL) - Steelers off a bye at home against an inferior road team. It will be interesting to see what this line opens up at. Anything short of Steelers -4 would be good value.
Panthers @ Vikings (-3) - Teddy Bridgewater does not look good. Carolina is an atrocity, but not sure I'm interested in laying points with the Vikings.
Cardinals @ Falcons (+1.5) - Arizona is a fraud, but Atlanta just plain sucks. Cardinals will be a heavy public play but that's the right side in my opinion.
Patriots @ Packers (-3) - Conflicting trends here with Pats as an underdog and Packers at home. I almost have to take the points here.
Broncos @ Chiefs (+1) - Tough call. Kansas City gave the Broncos a game in Denver earlier this season, but the line is right about where I would have expected it to be.
Dolphins @ Jets (NL) - Dolphins will be laying 4/4.5 points here, which is too many in my opinion. Dog or nothing.