Week 11 NFL Betting Recap: The Patriots are cash money as underdogs

The eleventh Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and as always, there's a lot to take away from this week's action. Your first takeaway should be to never tail my picks under any circumstances, as I continue to be a bookmaker's best friend on Sundays. The damage has been minimal on a week-to-week basis, but the steady stream of small losses keeps piling up. 

I'm pretty sure that this has been a takeaway already once this season, but since I don't listen to my own advice, I need to reiterate that the Patriots are cash money as underdogs. It doesn't matter if there is a conflicting trend to support the opposite side (in yesterday's case, it was Andrew Luck 16-5 ATS at home): New England should be an auto-bet every time they're getting points.

Back in Week 5, the Pats were catching three points at home to the Bengals in what may go down as the worst betting line in NFL history. Result: Patriots 43, Bengals 17. Fast forward to Week 9, where the Patriots were once again catching a field goal at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Result: Patriots 43, Broncos 21. Are you starting to see a trend here? This week, New England was in the role of the road underdog, but that didn't seem to matter, as they absolutely dismantled the Colts in front of a national audience. Result: 42, Colts 20. Three underdog roles, three wins, an average margin of victory of 42.7 to 19.3. This situation may present itself again in Week 13, when the Patriots travel to Lambeau Field to battle the Packers.

As for the Colts, it's become increasingly evident that Indianapolis can't hang with the big boys. Indianapolis is good at making quick work of the league's bottom-feeders, but they fold against stiff competition. The Colts' victories have come against the Jaguars, Titans, road Ravens, Texans, Bengals, and Giants - not exactly the cream of the crop. The good news for Indianapolis is their remaining schedule consists of the Jags, Redskins, Browns, Texans, Cowboys, and Titans, or in other words, more garbage. The Colts should be a 10-win team by season's end before inevitably falling to the Broncos or Patriots in the postseason.

Speaking of teams that can't hang with the big boys, the Eagles can now officially be labeled a fraud. I know what you're thinking: Lambeau Field is a tough place to play, how can you dock the Eagles for getting blown out by the Packers? I've suspected that Philadelphia isn't very good for a while now. The Eagles have played four big games this year, coming up on the short end of the stick in three of four. Granted, the losses to the 49ers, Cardinals, and Packers all came on the road, but a legitimate team would have found a way to pull out one of those games. The Eagles' only signature win this season came in a 30-27 upset of the Colts (another fraud) in Week 2, in which they should have been flagged for pass interference on an interception that won them the game. 

I'm not just going to rag on the Eagles, though: the entire NFC East is trash. It seems asinine to rip a division that sports two 7-3 teams, but I think it's fair in this instance. Philadelphia's victories have come against teams with a combined record of 25-45-1. Dallas's victories have come against teams with a combined record of 23-43. When the Eagles and Giants aren't busy beating up on the AFC South or the rest of the garbage in their division, they can't stack up to the rest of the league. Don't even get me started on the Redskins and Giants. Washington just lost by 20 points at home to a team that entered the game with a -105 point differential. Did I mention that the Redskins were coming off of a bye week? As for the Giants, Eli Manning has reverted to the dumpster fire of a season ago. New York fell 16-10 at home to the 49ers yesterday thanks to Eli's brutal five interceptions.

As bad as the NFC East is, they have nothing on the NFC South. The 2014 NFC South may be the worst division of all time. The Falcons sit on top with a 4-6 record and a -17 point differential. The Panthers are a half-game back of the division lead. THE PANTHERS! A team that has given up 85 more points than they've scored. A team that has lost five games in a row. With some luck, the 2-8 Buccaneers could actually win the division. A Bucs team that is 0-5 at home this season, and coached by a man that would rather smile all day than gameplan for his opponents, still has a realistic shot to win this division. OK, no more.

The Broncos are in some short-term trouble. Denver is one of only a handful of legitimate Super Bowl contenders (handful may be a stretch), but the injuries are starting to pile up on offense. Ronnie Hillman is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, which is a major issue because the rest of Denver's backfield is an atrocity. Remember when the Broncos drafted Montee Ball ahead of Eddie Lacy? Good times. Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas are already considered questionable at best for next week's home date with the Dolphins as well.

In other news:

• The Bears finally played a good game. Chicago put in an inspired effort against Minnesota, but it wasn't all good for the Bears. Despite outgaining the Vikings by 225 yards, Minnesota was still in a position to tie the game until Teddy Bridgewater had a major brain fart late in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, I'm sure Chicago will find a way to embarrass themselves again at some point in the near future. A home loss to Josh McCown in Week 12 would be so Bears.
• The Packers are a machine at Lambeau. Sharp money was pouring in on the Eagles yesterday, and I can't help but sit back and laugh at this now. I've made my fair share of dumb decisions, but someone needs to check their algorithms if they believe there was value with the Eagles yesterday. Green Bay's five home games this season have seen them score 31, 42, 38, 55, and 53 points. Is that good? It looks good. Expecting Mark Sanchez to match that production is insane.
• The Saints are a dumpster fire. I may have not made this clear enough in my NFC South rant above. With back-to-back home losses to the 49ers and Bengals, and a near home loss to the Bucs earlier this season, I think it's safe to say that New Orleans's home field advantage isn't as great as it used to be. The Saints are pathetic on the field, and their fans are just as pathetic off of it.
• The Rams have been extremely competitive recently. St. Louis has upset the 49ers and Broncos in two of their last three games, and last week's 31-14 loss to the Cardinals is extremely misleading - the Rams were within a field goal for the majority of the game. However, I think that the Rams could be a good fade going forward, especially coming off this week's monumental upset of the Broncos. 
• The Cardinals keep winning, somehow. Arizona was awful throughout this week's contest, but the Lions were more awful. I know, I'm a wordsmith. I don't want to go into another Matthew Stafford rant. By now you know that I don't think he's very good, and this was yet another example. But despite Detroit's ineptness throughout, they were jobbed in this contest. Jerome Boger's crew - the worst officiating crew I've ever seen in any professional sport - may as well have been wearing Cardinals jerseys. This week, Boger's crew was guilty of some more terrible ball spots and phantom calls. Best of all, they even reinvented the way touchback rules work. If you took the Lions this week, I feel for you.
• Philip Rivers was playing hurt, and was still 100x better than Derek Carr. Rivers sucked, but a lot of that can be attributed to a rib injury. If Rivers got hit by a tractor-trailer tomorrow, I'd still take him over Carr as my quarterback. 
• The Browns are still LOL-worthy. 23-7 home loss to Ryan Mallett and the Texans. Enough said.
• The Seahawks are still not good. Seattle pretty much played the perfect game on offense yesterday but only managed to put up 20 points. Stop listening to the all of the pregame shows: Russell Wilson isn't good. With each passing week, I start to believe that Wilson and Trent Dilfer have more in common.

Monday Night Football

Frankly, I haven't been this disinterested in a Monday Night Football game in years. 

This one is pretty simple for me: Pittsburgh continues to underwhelm on the road and Tennessee is an unbettable cancer. If there was ever a spot for the Titans to show up, it would be in a home game on national TV, but I'm in no hurry to bet that that happens.

My math model, which has seen decent results this season, has small edges on the Titans +5.5 and under 45.5. I love action as much as anyone else, but I'm afraid it's going to have to be a pass on tonight's game.

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL analysts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. For the FOURTH consecutive week, I put together a 2-3 record. I don't even know how this is possible anymore. If you’re interested in fading my plays going forward and going 3-2 every week, you can track my progress here.

Here's a quick recap of my plays this week:

1. Vikings +3 (L) - I bet against the Bears when their stock was at its absolute lowest point. Shrewd move. One of many I've made this season.
2. Chargers -10 (L) - Laying double-digit points? I don't even know who I am anymore.
3. Packers -6 (W) - I knew this was a winner about ten minutes into the game. Can't say I've been on the right end of a lot of these this season, but this one was nice.
4. Saints -7 (L) - I have no idea what I was thinking.
5. Chiefs -1.5 (W) - The Seahawks remain overvalued based on what they did last season. This wasn't exactly an easy win, but I'll take it.

Week 12 Early Thoughts

It’s never too soon to start looking at the next week of action. Here are my thoughts on every Week 12 game, using early consensus lines. 

• Chiefs @ Raiders (+7 -105) - With a low total of 43, it's tempting to take the underdog, especially in a divisional matchup, but the Raiders are just so bad.
• Browns @ Falcons (-3 -120) - I'll probably wait for this number to climb, hold my nose, and take the Browns. Atlanta just isn't very good.
• Titans @ Eagles (NL) - Probably looking at Eagles -10ish here. I won't lay the points with Sanchez, but Philadelphia should win this game handily.
• Lions @ Patriots (-5.5 -115) - This seems like a lot of points to lay against an elite defense, but the Lions are terrible on the road, and I want no part of betting against New England right now.
• Packers @ Vikings (+9.5) - I'll almost certainly grab the points with Minnesota at home. This game isn't at Lambeau and the Packers could be looking ahead to New England in Week 13.
• Jaguars @ Colts (-14 -105) - This is a lot of points for Indy to be laying against a divisional opponent coming off their bye, but the Colts always steamroll the Jags.
• Bengals @ Texans (-2) - I really don't like either of these teams, but would lean slightly to Houston right now.
• Jets @ Bills (-4.5) - Despite some horrific losses this season, the Jets aren't as bad as you believe. They're a live underdog here.
• Bucs @ Bears (-6) - Josh McCown against his former team that isn't very good. Dog or nothing. No chance in hell I'm laying six points with the Bears.
• Cardinals @ Seahawks (-6.5) - I can't tell you how badly I want to fade the Cardinals, but there's no way I'm laying this number with Seattle. 
• Rams @ Chargers (-6 -105) - The Rams are playing well, but they'll be partying all week after their upset of Denver. Chargers or nothing, although six points does seem like a lot to lay with San Diego right now.
• Dolphins @ Broncos (-7 -115) - Ordinarily I'd love Manning in a rebound spot, but this Broncos team has major injury concerns. Miami's pass rush could pose a major problem. Tough call.
• Redskins @ 49ers (-8) - Maybe getting out on the road will help the Redskins. Maybe. Nothing stands out to me here.
• Cowboys @ Giants (+3 +100) - This line looks like a major trap. The Cowboys aren't as good as people think, so I could see them falling flat here.
• Ravens @ Saints (-4) - Third straight home game for the Saints with two losses thus far. Third time's a charm?