Week 7 NFL Betting Recap: Cardinals and Cowboys keep rolling
The seventh Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and it was a slightly positive one from my perspective. I finished 4-3 ATS with my recommended wagers (grading Lions as a loss despite a better available line on Sunday). In what has been a recurring theme this season, my pool plays finished 9-4 ATS, but I somehow picked three of those four losers to wager on. Oh well.
This week’s recap will see a bit of a different format. My NFL Sunday usually consists of watching NFL RedZone all day, but a change in venue this week forced me to actually change channels manually. Subsequently, I watched a lot less of the games that I couldn't care less about (Jags/Browns), and a lot more of the games that I had money on. Rather than doing you a disservice and trying to formulate a recap of a game by looking at the box score, I’ve decided to just highlight my takeaways from the week, so let’s get to it.
The Atlanta Falcons are really, really, really bad. I think most of us already knew that the Falcons were a heaping pile of trash, but I don’t think we thought it would be to this extent. The only thing that Atlanta has going for it is its passing game, but that’s been rendered useless because of the insane amount of injuries on its offensive line. Don’t expect a turnaround any time soon - this team is in some serious trouble.
The Falcons predictably crapped the bed on Sunday because Baltimore always takes care of business against bad/average teams at home. I thought that the Ravens may be in for a down year after losing to the Bengals at home in Week 1, but Baltimore’s home-field advantage is still as strong as it’s been over the past few seasons. The Ravens last three home games have seen them outscore the Steelers, Panthers and Falcons by an average of 23.3 points. It’s always scary laying points with Joe Flacco, but Baltimore is usually money in the home favorite role.
Speaking of home favorites, don’t lay points with bad teams and bad quarterbacks at home. Kyle Orton and Kirk Cousins both closed as six-plus-point home favorites yesterday. KYLE ORTON AND KIRK COUSINS!!! I don’t care who they’re playing, those two quarterbacks should never be laying six points against anyone. Teams with losing records heading into this week were just 4-18 ATS as favorites this season. Look out for that going forward.
I just can’t comprehend how oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Colts. The Colts improved to 6-1 ATS this season and could easily be 7-0 ATS if it weren’t for a blown pass interference penalty that cost them a win against the Eagles in Week 2. It’s easy to dismiss Indianapolis because its defense isn’t very good (despite pitching a shutout yesterday), and the Colts don’t have much of a running game. But they have Andrew Luck, and that makes up for all of those weaknesses and more. Logic says that Indianapolis will eventually regress to the mean and stop covering spreads, but that will only be the case when its lines start to get inflated.
Miami and Kansas City are great in the underdog role. I don’t know what it is with these two teams, but they always show up in games that they’re not supposed to win. Sure, the Chiefs were aided by a bye week this time around, but they also took the Broncos and 49ers right down to the wire as road underdogs this year. Miami lost in Buffalo earlier this season as a small underdog, but I’ll give the Dolphins a pass because they were coming off of an upset victory over New England, as, you guessed it, an underdog. The Dolphins almost took down the Packers last week, and they trucked Chicago from start to finish this week. Miami and Kansas City are not to be messed with when they’re getting points.
Seattle is not the same team that won the Super Bowl a year ago. This is obvious after this week’s performance, but we weren’t sure going into this week’s game. I know that road divisional games aren’t exactly easy in the NFL, but this was a good spot for the Seahawks. Coming off of a home loss and having an extra day to prepare for an inferior team should have led to a Seattle victory. The Seahawks will have one thing working against them for the entire season - everyone hates them, so they’re getting everyone else’s best effort on a weekly basis. This would have been an easy spot for the Rams to roll over, but it was apparent that they were motivated for this game from the outset.
Speaking of motivation, don’t bet against quarterbacks when they’re trying to set records. If a quarterback is trying to set a record, he’s probably pretty good (unless you’re Blaine Gabbert trying to set a record for most consecutive incompletions). I can’t think of a less desirable spot than to bet AGAINST Peyton Manning when he’s trying to throw as many touchdown passes as he possibly can in a night.
Dallas and Arizona are doing everything that they can to silence the critics, but I’m not sold on the Cowboys and Cardinals just yet. You can’t fault these teams for continuing to win, but you can dig deeper into their victories and be skeptical. Dallas has won six straight games, but those victories have come against teams with a combined record of 15-22. Not a single one of those opponents is over .500 right now, and last week’s win in Seattle is starting to look less impressive after the Seahawks’ loss to the Rams. The Cardinals have beaten the 49ers and Chargers at home, which makes them look like less of a fraud, but back-to-back wins over the Redskins and Raiders may have this team overvalued going forward.
The Giants might be the second-best team in New York. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m more confident in the Jets than the Giants right now. A large part of this is due to the Giants’ coaching staff being a complete and utter embarrassment. A week after getting shut out by the Eagles, the Giants forced a punt against Dallas on the opening drive of the game, and then proceeded to run this brilliant set of plays.
First-and-10, NYG 24 - Andre Williams rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the NYG 22.
Second-and-12, NYG 22 - Andre Williams rush to the left for 1 yard to the NYG 23.
Third-and-11, NYG 23 - Peyton Hillis rush to the right for 4 yards to the NYG 27.
Go home Ben McAdoo, you’re drunk. I can understand starting the game with a run, but following up with another run on second-and-12 is highly questionable. Giving the ball to Peyton Hillis on third-and-long is the definition of waving the white flag. All this, of course, happened while Tom Coughlin patrolled the sideline, yelling at everything within ten feet of him. Shame on me for losing money on this traveling circus in back-to-back weeks.
Matthew Stafford and Andy Dalton are nothing more than average quarterbacks. Both of these guys rely so heavily on tossing jump balls to their No. 1 receivers that they become completely useless without those receivers in the lineup. I know what you’re thinking - how can you rag on Stafford after he led his team back from 13 points down against the Saints? If you think Stafford led the Lions back, you’re mistaken. First off, Detroit’s defense kept that game in reach despite Stafford being completely inept for the majority of the game. The 73-yard touchdown pass from Stafford to Golden Tate to pull within six points had nothing to do with Stafford whatsoever. In fact, Stafford almost overthrew Tate on the play, and Tate did all of the work, turning what should have been a 15-yard gain into a long touchdown. The go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute to go was set up by a Drew Brees interception. When Stafford isn’t throwing jump balls to Megatron, he’s pretty awful. When Dalton isn’t throwing jump balls to A.J. Green, he’s also pretty awful. It’s as simple as that.
And finally ... it might be time to stop using the Panthers and Seahawks in your teasers. All Seattle has to do is win? Easy money! Wrong. There’s no way the Panthers will lose by that much. Wrong again. You generally want to tease games through key numbers, but these two squads have proven time and time again this season that the numbers don’t seem to matter. When Carolina loses, it’s ugly. When Seattle is favored by a touchdown, they lose. Stay clear.
Monday Night Football
It’s rare to see a Monday Night Football contest where the public is split on the game, but that’s exactly what we have tonight.
I’m not really high on either of these teams, but I definitely trust the Texans more than I do the Steelers. Pittsburgh lost to Tampa Bay at home, which doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence in its ability to protect its home field. The Steelers have played one of the weakest schedules in the league through three games, and sit at just 3-3, which is a telling sign that they’re not very good.
The Texans may be coming off back-to-back losses, but losing by a combined eight points against the Colts and Cowboys is nothing to be ashamed of. Pittsburgh’s defense is no longer the feared unit that it once was, and things have only been made worse with the injury of cornerback Ike Taylor. Houston should be able to move the ball and I trust its defense enough to generate stops, especially with J.J. Watt going up against a Steelers offensive line that’s surrendered 17 sacks this season.
I personally grabbed a piece of Texans +4 early in the week, and although I don’t really love the current line on the Texans, I do think that they’re the right side. Texans +3
#SuperContest
The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. I went 1-4 with my selections last week but rebounded by going 3-2 this week, although that seemed like a bit of a disappointment. If you’re interested, you can track my progress here.
Here’s a quick recap of what I played this week:
Jets +9.5 (W) – This was an easy one for me. Expecting the New England defense to make enough stops to build up a margin is a tough ask right now.
Titans +5.5 (W) – Whether it was Whitehurst or Locker, I was resigned to fading the Redskins as a big favorite. This one was relatively sweat free.
Dolphins +3 (W) – I was hesitant to take the Dolphins because I wasn’t getting the hook (+3.5), but I liked them better than any other play on Sunday so I decided to go with my gut. I’m glad I did.
Panthers +7 (L) – Woof. This one was a loser almost immediately. Do I regret it? Yes, very much so.
Giants +6.5 (L) – This would have been on my card 100 times out of 100. New York was in the game for a long while before they fell apart in the fourth quarter. No regrets here.
Week 8 Early Thoughts
It’s never too early to start taking a look at the next week of action. Here are my early thoughts on every game, using early consensus lines.
Chargers @ Broncos (-7.5, +100) - I will almost certainly be on San Diego here. The Chargers aren’t nearly as bad as they’ve looked in the past few weeks and they’ve been looking ahead to this matchup for a long while now.
Lions @ Falcons (+3.5) - This game takes place on a neutral field in London, but I still think the line is too short. Detroit has a history of faltering off of a win, but as discussed earlier, this is a terrible Falcons team.
Vikings @ Bucs (-3) - I’d like someone to explain this one to me. The advanced line in this game was a pick ’em, but somehow Tampa is favored by three points now? Did the Vikings really look that bad against the Bills? Underdog or nothing.
Bears @ Patriots (-7, +105) - The media will be talking about the Bears’ locker room issues all week, and that will have them motivated to prove everyone wrong. New England is overvalued for the second straight week.
Rams @ Chiefs (-6.5, -115) - Both teams are coming off of huge divisional wins so this could be a potential flat spot for both sides. I’m thinking Kansas City rolls but they’re not exactly the most appealing favorite in the world with Alex Smith under center.
Seahawks @ Panthers (+4.5) - Your best guess is as good as mine. I’ve had a terrible read on these teams all season long.
Bills @ Jets (-3, -105) - It would be so Jets to lay an egg in this spot. Geno Smith looked really good against the Pats last week, and Buffalo has some cluster injuries at running back, but I still can’t stomach a play on New York in the favorite role.
Dolphins @ Jaguars (+5) - Miami did destroy a similarly bad Raiders team a few weeks ago, but I’m not really comfortable laying points with the Dolphins on the road. Jacksonville is playing better ball, especially on defense.
Texans @ Titans (+2, -105) - This line could move depending on the outcome of tonight’s game, and at this price, I really don’t like either side.
Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5) - No one wants any piece of Cincinnati right now, so this is probably the time to buy Cincinnati. If the Bengals have A.J. Green back in the lineup, they’re a different offense. We’ll wait and see.
Eagles @ Cardinals (-2.5, -115) - I think both of these teams are pretty overrated, so I’m not really sure what to do here. Philadelphia will have had the added luxury of a bye week, which may give them a small edge.
Colts @ Steelers (+3) - Tonight’s result will affect where this number is on Tuesday, although I’m not sure that it matters.
Raiders @ Browns (-7) - The Raiders are bad, but have we not learned our lesson with laying points with the Browns? This is a steep price, although it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Cleveland destroyed Oakland.
Packers @ Saints (-2) - I personally believe this game should be a pick ’em, but am not surprised that the Saints have opened as favorites. This is one of only a handful of games next week where I don’t have a strong opinion on either side.
Redskins @ Cowboys (-9.5) - This is a lot of points. I’d be more willing to back Washington with Colt McCoy than Kirk Cousins, but neither is really a good option. I doubt I’ll be playing this game.