Week 4 NFL Betting Recap: 49ers win in spite of Kaepernick
The fourth Sunday of the NFL season has come and gone. After having a terrible Week 3, I rebounded with a 3-2-1 record with my recommended wagers this week.
For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you'll know I added an additional unit on the Vikings, but also lost with an added play on the Titans. Anyone who tailed my plays also would have probably won instead of pushing on 49ers -5, as a better line was available almost immediately after my post. All in all, it was a pretty good week though.
This week produced several heart attacks and some great possibilities for next week, so let’s get to it.
Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders (in London)
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Raiders 12
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Dolphins 38, Raiders 14
The Dolphins made Derek Carr look like Joe Montana on the Raiders’ first drive, but then Carr proved that he was truly a member of the Carr family and folded like a cheap tent.
It’s hard to put the blame squarely on the quarterback though because the Raiders are pathetic in every which way. After a rough start for the Fish, they proved their superiority and ran the Raiders right out of Wembley Stadium. Ryan Tannehill looked like a capable quarterback and Joe Philbin looked like a competent head coach, which is probably the first and last time that those two statements will ever be used in the same sentence again.
The Dolphins aren’t nearly as poor as they looked a week ago and they aren’t nearly as good as they looked this week against the Raiders. The Raiders are every bit as poor as they looked against the Dolphins, and possibly even worse. Seriously, this is Oakland’s idea of defense.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 24
Wager: Packers -2
Final Score: Packers 38, Bears 17
First things first, I love those Bears throwback jerseys, but that’s about the only good thing I can say about Chicago on this day. I could spend more time talking about how bad the Bears were but the truth is that they weren’t the worst team on the field on Sunday - that award goes to the officiating crew, which was flat out pathetic.
Julius Peppers was called for an illegal hands to the face penalty in the first quarter, where not only did he not have his hands in the offensive lineman’s face, he was being blatantly held. That’s the call that sticks out in my memory but believe me, there were at least a dozen blown calls in this game, and that’s being generous.
The grounds crew also gets honorable mention for one of the worst grass fields I’ve ever seen. Mason Crosby somehow made a 53-yard field goal on that slop, which should earn him an automatic entry into the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame.
As for the two teams playing in the game, at one point it appeared as though this game would come down to whomever had the last possession (both defenses were comically bad), but then Jay Cutler went and did Jay Cutler things, and this one was over. Aaron Rodgers told Packers’ fans to “R-E-L-A-X” midweek, and it appears as though he was right. It also appears as though Rodgers may have been pretty relaxed himself when you look at the audibles he was calling all day.
On a side note, Marc Trestman was comically bad with his clock management in this contest. I’m still a fan of Trestman but it’s not a good look when you get outcoached by Mike McCarthy, and the only coaching staff in the league that refuses to make any in-game adjustments.
Another side note, Packers’ free safety Micah Hyde is an abomination. The best play that he made all day was blocking a goal line camera view that would have likely given the Bears a touchdown. I’m not joking. What a train wreck.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Prediction: Bills 16, Texans 13
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Texans 23, Bills 17
I’m still not quite sure how the Texans managed to win this one. Houston was awful for the majority of the game, which is no surprise since the only quarterbacks that they’ve beaten are RG3 and Derek Carr. It seemed like the Bills were in full control, but then BOOM... E.J. Manuel throws it directly into the arms of J.J. Watt for a pick six, and just like that, the Bills blew another road game. I’m still trying to figure out what Manuel saw on that play.
I’m also still trying to figure out what the Bills saw in Manuel when they drafted him 16th overall in 2013. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the last laugh against his former team, as the rest of the world gets to laugh at the Bills once more.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Colts 24, Titans 23
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Colts 41, Titans 17
A lot of people will rip Charlie Whitehurst for his performance in this one, but the truth of the matter is that “Clipboard Jesus” was hardly to blame for this outcome.
It all started with an early fumble by Kendall Wright that was caused by literally no one. Wright went to the ground to reach for extra yardage, coughed up the ball, and before you knew it, Trent Richardson was in the end zone (it feels weird to type that) for the Colts. At this point, the Titans were still in the game, but the Colts tried a surprise onside kick and recovered it when everyone on the Tennessee special teams unit seemed clueless as to what was happening.
The Titans aren’t a bad football team, but they’re not built to play from behind. The strength of their offensive is the interior of the offensive line, especially in run blocking, and Tennessee simply isn’t going to be competitive when they’re spotting opponents two touchdowns early in the game. I will say this though; Andrew Luck is pretty damn impressive. Sure, he makes the occasional bad throw now and then, but he seemingly converts almost every third down situation. The guy is incredible.
Anyways, the outcome of this game was never in doubt. As for the outcome of the CBS broadcast team that blamed Andrew Luck for a pass that literally hit Trent Richardson in the numbers, that remains to be seen. “Luck needs to put that one in a better spot”. SMH.
Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Panthers 22, Ravens 20
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Ravens 38, Panthers 10
Sometimes things just don’t go your way, and in the case of the Panthers, nothing went their way on Sunday. It all started with Carolina’s first drive when they drove into the red zone, picked up an offensive pass interference penalty, and then took a sack, forcing them to punt. It could have stopped there but Joe Flacco had a horseshoe firmly entrenched into his ass (have you heard that any time before?), so the Panthers really didn’t stand much of a chance.
A side note to the Carolina coaching staff: when a former receiver of yours goes out of his way to shit talk your team, you should probably put together a game plan to shut him down. Just a thought.
Detroit Lions @ New York Jets
Prediction: Jets 23, Lions 17
Wager: Jets +2
Final Score: Lions 24, Jets 17
If I watched this game from start to finish not having any inkling as to which two teams were on the field, I would have bet my life that the losing team was the Jets. This was just such a Jets’ performance. Red zone woes, appalling quarterback play, and the inability to call anything other than an all-out blitz on defensive third downs highlighted another game that will have surely done some serious damage to your retinas.
For some god forsaken reason, Rex Ryan refused to pull Geno Smith in favor of Michael Vick, which would have drastically improved New York’s chances of mounting a comeback. Ryan also stood in support of Geno Smith after the game, which all but ensures that he won’t last the season as the head coach in New York.
The Lions did their best to piss away another road game, but even that wasn’t enough for the Jets. That’s three straight losses in three straight games to NFC North opponents for New York—who the hell made the NFL schedule this season?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Bucs 26, Steelers 23
Wager: Bucs +7.5
Final Score: Bucs 27, Steelers 24
This isn’t the same garbage Bucs’ team that got embarrassed on Thursday Night Football last week. That was evident in the first quarter when Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson, two defensive linemen that were out last week, sacked Big Ben on back-to-back plays.
The Steelers’ offensive line was a major issue early on and it didn’t help that their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, was seemingly paid off before the game started. If you saw Pittsburgh’s red zone play calling, you’d know exactly what I mean.
Antonio Brown was doing his best to make up for his OC’s inefficiencies by pushing off on seemingly every play, including on a 27-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter. Somehow, there was a defensive penalty called on this play. And somehow, someone got paid to call that defensive penalty.
It looked as though the Bucs were going to find a way to blow this one, especially when Mike Glennon threw a pick because Mike Evans pulled up with a hamstring injury, but this is the NFL, and crazy shit happens.
Things sometimes get so crazy that the Bucs move the ball to the Steelers 11-yard line for a first down, and the referees make it 1st-and-goal instead of 1st-and-10. Yes, this happened.
Things sometimes get even crazier and the officiating crew refuses to apply the rules of intentional grounding to Ben Roethlisberger. And then things get their craziest and Lawrence Timmons is allowed to defend opposing tight ends by face guarding and never even attempting to look back at the ball. The NFL, where crazy happens!
Despite all of the breaks that the Steelers caught, they couldn’t find a way to separate. Roethlisberger missed Antonio Brown by literally inches on a bomb that would have sealed the deal for Pittsburgh, but Brown couldn't haul in the pass.
Pittsburgh was forced to punt and Mike Glennon led an incredible drive late in the fourth quarter, connecting with Vincent Jackson on a touchdown for the improbable victory. It was so improbable that Big Ben looked like he was going to vomit on the sidelines, even getting down to one knee and trying to hold himself up. The theme of my Week 4 preview was “buy low, sell high”, and it definitely applied to this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Chargers 26, Jaguars 19
Wager: Jags +13
Final Score: Chargers 33, Jaguars 14
I don’t know what took Gus Bradley so long to make the quarterback switch from Chad Henne to Blake Bortles, but it’s about time that he did. Bortles made his fair share of mistakes on Sunday but the Jags at least had some semblance of an offense without drunken Henne tossing ducks downfield.
The problem is that the Jags are still the Jags. Terrible coaching, terrible defense, Toby Gerhart plodding around everywhere, Cecil Shorts leaving mid-game due to some random tissue injury. Another week, same old problems. You really have to applaud Mike McCoy for the job he’s done with this Chargers’ team. Business as usual, even without his top two running backs.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 49ers 31, Eagles 17
Wager: 49ers -5
Final Score: 49ers 26, Eagles 21
It took me only approximately five minutes to regret wagering on the 49ers. If anyone tells you Colin Kaepernick was bad in this game, slap them across the face and tell them they’re crazy.
He wasn’t just bad; he was pitiful. No one takes longer to do nothing than Kaepernick, who is seemingly running out of the pocket on every dropback, whether there is pressure or not. Kaep took a needless sack in the first quarter that setup an Eagles’ blocked punt in the end zone for a touchdown. He then proceeded to throw a pick six to Malcolm Jenkins, where every 49ers’ offensive player missed a tackle on Jenkins’ return.
That’s right, 11 missed tackles (ok, I’m exaggerating)!!! And when Kaep wasn’t busy being a complete jerk, 49ers’ punter Andy Lee was acting a fool, bombing punts through the end zone. There was literally a point where I turned to Jason Priestly (yes, I somehow ended up watching this game with Jason Priestly) and told him I was going to vomit.
I was going to leave it at that but I can’t help but go into a rant on Kaepernick. Is there a dumber quarterback in the NFL today? I doubt it. How many delay of game penalties does it take to understand that you need to snap the ball BEFORE the play clock hits zero? And how many times can you rush out of bounds for a five yard loss? Throw the ball away you clown. I’m getting an ulcer just thinking about some of these moronic decisions yesterday.
The good news is that Nick Foles was also a giant turd on this afternoon. The Eagles picked up 213 yards of total offense, and didn’t run a play in San Francisco territory until midway through the fourth quarter. There was a point in the game where they had 21 points on 47 yards (2.24 yards per point). In spite of all this (remember, Kaep was blowing chunks all afternoon) Foles marched the Eagles down the field inside the last two minutes of the game, but for some god forsaken reason, Philadelphia tried to throw on third and fourth down from the 1-yard line instead of you know, handing it off to arguably the best running back in the game.
Both pass attempts predictably failed and Chip Kelly was left with nuts in hand on the sideline, wondering what could have been. I suffered a year’s worth of anxiety in one NFL game, so I’m just going to end this one right here. You should also do yourself a favor and watch the catch of the year by Jeremy Maclin which sent me into immediate #orbit.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Vikings 23, Falcons 14
Wager: Vikings +3
Final Score: Vikings 41, Falcons 28
I don’t know which betting syndicate steamed the Falcons up to -5.5/-6 before game time, but I’m going to assume that it was a syndicate operated by clowns. I spent all morning trying to figure out why the Vikings weren’t favored in this game, and then all of a sudden they became a 2-to-1 money line underdog. Someone really screwed the pooch on that one.
Minnesota got out to a great start when they drove the field and scored a touchdown on their first drive. Teddy Bridgewater looked calm, cool, and collected. The only problem was that the Vikings’ defense seemed to be playing an interesting form of the Cover 0 where there were literally zero people covering Roddy White. I know Roddy is getting old, but you may want to put at least one guy on him.
This was just a minor obstacle for the Vikings though, because the Falcons’ “defense” was non-existent. Bridgewater played a great game, and I don’t want to take anything away from that, but he really couldn’t have asked for a better opponent for his first career NFL start. Minnesota also caught a break when essentially every backup offensive lineman for the Falcons got injured. There was a point where tight end Levine Toilolo had to play right tackle, which is obviously not a good look.
I will admit that I nearly had heart failure when I saw Bridgewater get carted off with an ankle injury. The thought of Christian Ponder taking a snap for a team that I had money on is seizure inducing, but by that point, the game was firmly in hand thanks to Blair Walsh and his killer leg. Another week, another Falcons’ loss outside of the dome.
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Saints 35, Cowboys 27
Wager: Pass
Final Score: Cowboys 38, Saints 17
It’s not too often that Cowboys’ fans like myself get treated to a performance like this. Dallas was downright dominant on both sides of the ball. I almost don’t want to write a single thing about this game and go into an epic rant about the idiots who don’t believe that Tony Romo is a good quarterback, but then I risk looking like a complete moron in the inevitable Cowboys’ letdown game next weekend.
And what the hell is going on with New Orleans? Many people had them pegged to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC, but that’s looking like a bigger reach with every week that passes. I can’t recall a game in recent years in which the Saints committed as many terrible mistakes as they did last night. They also attempted what may go down as the worst fake punt in the history of football late in the fourth quarter. All in all, the Saints turned in another dud on the road, which is business as usual for this team.
Monday Night Football
I left this game off of my Week 4 Betting Preview because I really had no opinion on the game whatsoever. Two additional days have gone by and I still have no clue what to do with this game.
Line movement would indicate that sharp money is on the Chiefs as a home underdog, but as we’ve learned many times throughout the course of the year, sharp money isn’t necessarily a guarantee of success (see Bills, Jets, Eagles, and Falcons from this week).
I want to believe that the Patriots will eventually snap out of this offensive funk, but maybe this is just what they are. Similarly to the Saints last night, maybe the Pats just aren’t as good as everyone thought they were before the season started. They have no deep threat whatsoever on offense and opposing defenses can just focus on shutting down Rob Gronkowski in the passing game.
With that being said, I don’t trust the Chiefs at all. Kansas City blew out the Dolphins on the road last week, but that had more to do with Miami self-inflicted wounds than it did with the Chiefs doing anything noteworthy. I hate to be lame, but Monday Night Football is a pass for me. I played the Patriots -3 in my ATS pool (where I’m forced to pick every game ATS), but I have no faith in that whatsoever. For what it’s worth, the OddsShark computer projection really likes the over and leans to the Patriots.
Week 5 Early Thoughts
It’s never too early to start taking a look at the next week of action. Here are my early thoughts on every game. Current odds are courtesy of OddsShark.
Vikings @ Packers -10: Teddy Bridgewater looks like a capable quarterback and this is a lot of points to spot with a team that is terrible defensively. These Thursday Night Football games are a huge crapshoot though.
Bears @ Panthers -2.5 -130: Not really sure what to do here. Both teams are coming off of blowout losses, which is usually a good bounce back spot (although Carolina lost in that spot this week).
Browns @ Titans (NL): No line as of yet because of the Titans quarterback situation, but I assume it will open in a pick’em range. Cleveland coming off of a bye, but not sure I fully trust them on the road, even against a subpar Titans’ squad.
Rams @ Eagles -7: Rams quarterback situation is still up in the air, but this seems like a lot of points with an overrated Eagles’ squad. Philadelphia has been catching a LOT of breaks this season, and Jeff Fisher should have his squad ready off of the bye.
Falcons @ Giants -4.5: This is the inflated line of the week. The Falcons are down several men on their offensive line and aren’t a good road team, but you probably have a death wish if you’re going to lay 4.5 points with the Giants here.
Bucs @ Saints (NL): No line posted yet but I imagine the Saints will open up in near-double digit territory. Tampa coming in high off an upset win could be poised for a major letdown.
Texans @ Cowboys (NL): A couple of offshores have posted Cowboys -4.5, which will probably attract a ton of public action. Dallas in the obvious letdown spot here, but tough to back Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road.
Bills @ Lions -7: This line seems about right. The Lions have proven that they can blow out teams at home (see Giants in Week 1), and E.J. Manuel has proven that he’s a train wreck on the road. It’s tough to make a case for Buffalo early on.
Ravens @ Colts -3 -125: The Colts will probably hit -3.5 at some point in the week. Andrew Luck vs. Joe Flacco is just a bit of a mismatch (sarcasm), so I’d probably be leaning with the home side here.
Steelers @ Jaguars +6.5: Another week, another temptation to bet on Jacksonville. This time I’ll refuse though. Pittsburgh coming off of an ugly home loss will probably get up for this game. The Jags don’t have much of a home field advantage either.
Cardinals @ Broncos -7.5: Carson Palmer is expected back for the Cardinals which means that two turnovers (at minimum) are expected for the Cardinals’ offense this week. This looks like a big number but I’m not really sold on Arizona just yet.
Chiefs @ 49ers (NL): This line will be affected by tonight’s MNF outcome. Colin Kaepernick vs. Alex Smith will get all the headlines and make you nauseous all week.
Jets @ Chargers -7: I think this is a fair line. San Diego continues to cover spreads under Mike McCoy and the Jets continue to shoot themselves in the foot. This is not a number that stands out as being off though.
Bengals @ Patriots (NL): This line will also be affected by tonight’s MNF game. Cincinnati coming off of a bye is going to be very tempting at +3 or higher.
Seahawks @ Redskins +7.5: No one in the world wants to bet on the Redskins right now, which means that I’ll probably be on the Redskins next week. Seattle is a different team on the road—they’re being given a LOT of respect here.