NFL Week 4 Betting Preview: Buy low, sell high

Week 4 is here.

After a solid 6-1 Week 2, I gave back most of those profits with a 2-6 Week 3. This season has been a roller coaster so far, but hopefully I’m on my way up the next hill instead of down. The common theme in this week’s preview (you’ll see it littered everywhere): “buy low, sell high.” A lot of teams are being insanely overvalued or undervalued this week, and I’ll be looking to play against the teams where perception and reality are poles apart. 

If you’re unfamiliar with my betting preview, take some time to read the intro to my Week 1 betting preview in order to better understand my approach. Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats, and other items of note. I’ve also left out the Monday Night Football writeup this week - it will be included in my recap piece Monday.

Here are my picks for Week 4:

Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders

Friday Consensus Line: Dolphins -3.5, total 41

The Pick: What did the poor people of London do to deserve this? If the NFL is trying to generate interest in Europe, it’s probably not a good idea to send the lowly Raiders overseas, but then again, the NFL brass isn’t exactly known for making the smartest decisions. A lot of people will focus on the Raiders hanging tight in New England last week, but let’s not be fooled; this team is an absolute train wreck. Oakland is last in the league in offensive yards per game, and they’ve managed to score only 37 points through the first three games of the season. Six teams have already managed to hit that mark in a single game this year! The sad thing is these numbers are slightly inflated because of garbage time yardage and points against the Jets and Texans in the first two weeks. The Raiders have no ground game and that means the Dolphins’ strong pass rush should be in the grill of rookie Derek Carr all afternoon. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ offense, but let’s not forget this offense scored 33 points against a stout Patriots’ defense in Week 1. Tannehill was hesitant in the pocket last week but he’s also been wronged by a whopping 12 drops this season (9.7 percent of all passes); four more drops than any other team in the league. The Dolphins managed only 24 drops all of last season, so I’d expect this to turn around sooner rather than later. The Raiders have lost nine games in a row, with all of those losses coming by four points or more. Make that 10 on Sunday. Dolphins 20, Raiders 12

The Wager: The advanced line in this matchup was Dolphins -6.5 but has dropped quite a bit because of last week’s results. If the Raiders can manage to get blown out by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Texans, they can get blown out by anybody. That being said, I’ve learned my lesson with Miami as a favorite. Year in and year out, this team always manages to play up or down to their competition, so even though I think the Dolphins have some major edges here, I’ll lay off. There also could be some major issues in their locker room right now. Pass

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -2, total 50

The Pick: R-E-L-A-X. Those were the letters uttered by Aaron Rodgers earlier this week, and that’s probably what everyone should be doing when it comes to berating the Packers’ offense. Green Bay has struggled to get anything going early on this season, but there’s a good reason for that. Eddie Lacy and James Starks have been bottled up for three straight weeks by the Seahawks, Jets, and Lions, all of whom happen to be tied for first in the league in rush defense, surrendering 2.8 yards per attempt. Rodgers was incapable of taking the Packers on his shoulders behind a shoddy offensive line, but that won’t be much of an issue when Lacy gets back on track this week. The Bears give up 5.0 yards per carry and the Packers welcome back right tackle Bryan Bulaga, which bolsters their offensive line enormously now that Derek Sherrod can return to the bench. Chicago was extremely fortunate in their Monday night victory over the Jets, as they were outgained by 157 total yards. The Bears capitalized on a Geno Smith pick-six and the Jets’ inability to score touchdowns in the red zone, but that won’t happen against a more seasoned Packers’ offense. Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense has steadily improved since the start of the season. Green Bay has given up only 29 points in their last seven quarters of football and held a potent Lions’ offense to 353 total yards on the fast turf in Detroit last weekend. The Bears are on short rest after back-to-back primetime games in which they had to hit both sides of America. That’s not an ideal spot against a hungry Packers’ squad. Packers 31, Bears 24

The Wager: This is simply a case of buy low, sell high for me. Chicago has won back-to-back games in front of a national audience, both of which they probably should have lost. Of course, no one cares that they should have lost, and that’s created the perception that Chicago can win even when they don’t play their best game. I look at it quite differently. I don’t think the Bears are very good, and I think the Packers have looked poor because they’ve matched up terribly with their first three opponents. A rare case when I’m on the public road chalk, but in this case, I think it’s warranted. Packers -2 (widely available)

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -3, total 41

The Pick: Just when you think the Bills are finally getting over the hump, they go out of their way to lay an egg and remind you that they’re the same old Bills. That being said, the Texans also made a case for being a huge fraud with their 30-17 loss to the Giants last week. So which of these teams bounces back this week? I’m more inclined to believe it will be Buffalo. Houston’s victories over Washington (with useless RG3) and Oakland are hardly impressive, and the Texans have actually been outgained in all three games this season. That’s right - outgained by the Redskins, Raiders, and Giants in three consecutive games (that’s not good). The Texans were fortunate to come up on the right side of the turnover battle in Weeks 1 and 2, but the real Ryan Fitzpatrick showed up last weekend to remind us all that he’s nothing more than a Band-Aid being used in a starter’s capacity right now. The Bills know Fitzpatrick inside and out from his time in Buffalo, and they’ll have a big edge on defense because of that. Whether Arian Foster is in the lineup or not is irrelevant for the Bills, as they’ve yet to surrender more than 86 rushing yards in any game this season. Fitzpatrick will be facing plenty of third-and-longs, and that’s simply a recipe for disaster for a quarterback with diminishing arm strength. On the other side of things, EJ Manuel is really struggling right now, but at least he’ll have the benefit of a running game. The Texans have been downright awful against the run this season, so C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson should be able to able to at least put the young quarterback in manageable situations. Buffalo gets back on track. Bills 16, Texans 13

The Wager: I may have picked Buffalo to win the game, but that’s merely because I am forced to make a prediction on every game. The Bills could lose by 40 points and it really wouldn’t surprise me. Manuel’s track record on the road thus far in his career is abysmal, and that may be the understatement of the week. Pass

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -8, total 46

The Pick: These teams look like they’re miles apart right now, but as is always the case, it’s important not to overreact to what’s fresh in your mind. The Colts routed the Jags last week - big deal, the Jags are pure garbage with Chad Henne under center. The Titans were shellacked by the Bengals last week -well, Cincinnati happens to be one of the top teams in the AFC and Tennessee actually outgained them in the game. Last week’s results don’t really tell us anything. What I do know is that the Colts beat the Titans by eight points at home last season, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick tossing a pair of picks for Tennessee. The Titans’ defense was stingy and held the Colts’ offense to five field goals; four of which were from 45-plus yards. Tennessee brought in Ken Whisenhunt to be their head coach this season, and that’s a huge improvement over the incompetence manning the sidelines a year ago. Whisenhunt was part of a Chargers’ coaching staff that defeated the Colts 19-9 in a Monday Night Football matchup last season, albeit San Diego is more talented than Tennessee. The big question mark surrounding the Titans right now is the status of Jake Locker, who looks iffy to play due to a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst hasn’t started a regular season game since 2011, which may actually work in the Titans' favor. The Colts won’t have much game tape to work with, and they also may enter the game thinking that they’ve already won (see Giants vs. Drew Stanton, see Bucs vs. Derek Anderson). Indianapolis has some holes that can be exploited, including a makeshift offensive line, the lack of a quality pass rusher, and a defense that allows the third-most yards per play in the league. The Colts probably get the win but this one will be decided late. Colts 24, Titans 23

The Wager: It’s obviously tough to fire on the Titans right now after what we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks, but there’s much less of a talent gap between these two teams than this line suggests. Another case of buy low, sell high, although we’ll try to sell as high as possible. I’m listing this as a pass for the time being until we get the final quarterback announcement for the Titans. If it’s Whitehurst, we’ll get a better number than what’s currently available. Pass (until QB announcement)

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Friday Consensus Line: Ravens -3 -130, total 40.5

The Pick: If there’s one common them in my weekly write-ups, it’s that I don’t put much stock into what happened last week. That’s not to say that last week is irrelevant - it’s not -I simply prefer to focus on a larger sample size and, more importantly, individual game matchups. Joe Flacco simply doesn’t fare well when he’s under pressure. Carolina led the league with 60 sacks last season, and although that number is bound to get worse without Greg Hardy in the lineup, they still boast a very strong defensive front seven. The Panthers have racked up eight sacks through the first three weeks of the season, and they’ll surely make life difficult for Flacco, who will be without his preferred target, Dennis Pitta. Flacco posted the worst numbers of his professional career last season, and that was largely due to Pitta being out of the lineup for the majority of the season. Steve Smith will have a chip on his shoulder against his former team, and he should find some holes in the Carolina secondary, but I have little faith in Flacco’s ability to hold up under duress. The Panthers’ offense was an abomination against the Steelers on Sunday night, but they’re probably not as bad as they looked. Carolina didn’t have the services of DeAngelo Williams in the backfield but should have him back this week, which will be a major improvement over the highly ineffective Jonathan Stewart. Williams’ mere presence on the field will open up some play action opportunities for Cam Newton, who has an impressive track record of bouncing back after a poor outing. Baltimore used to be automatic at home but two losses in their last four home games indicate they’re beatable on their home field. Panthers 22, Ravens 20

The Wager: Baltimore is the deserving favorite in this contest, but there are some strong situational angles and matchups that favor the Panthers. With some -3.5s starting to pop up at various sportsbooks, the Panthers are a tempting commodity, but I still have some concerns that Newton is not at 100 percent. The former Auburn product didn’t look good Sunday night, so I’ll unenthusiastically watch this game without any wagers in place (although Carolina would make for good teaser material). Pass

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets

Friday Consensus Line: Lions -2, total 44.5

The Pick: It’s becoming comically easy to predict the outcome of Lions’ games (says the guy who can’t hit a winner right now). Detroit is coming off a home victory over Green Bay, where they didn’t play all that well, and now they’re expected to walk through a Jets squad that pissed themselves on Monday Night Football. Well, not so fast. How many times have we been down this road with the Lions before? The coaching staff has changed, some personnel has changed, but the results haven’t. Matthew Stafford is the main culprit for the Lions’ lack of success away from home, as he’s completed only 51 percent of this passes in his last five road starts. The Jets’ secondary is a mess but they’re still fairly good at getting after the quarterback, and the Lions are prone to mistakes on offense, so I’d fully expect New York’s defense to make some big plays. The Jets’ offense is clearly still a work in progress but it’s important to note that they moved the ball pretty well against the Bears on Monday. New York bogged down in the red zone time after time, and Geno Smith committed some boneheaded plays (he’s good for a couple of these per week), but at least the Jets gave themselves an opportunity. One plus for New York is that they finally decided to use Chris Ivory in the backfield and relegated Chris Johnson’s sorry ass to the bench, which should bode well for the offense moving forward. All in all, history tends to repeat itself with the Lions more often than not. Last week’s victory over Green Bay will have Detroit riding into town with confidence, and before you know it, they’ll be back at .500. Jets 23, Lions 17

The Wager: Could Detroit have won in a more lackluster fashion last week? A 40-yard fumble return for a touchdown and a safety made up for Detroit’s measly 3.0 yards per carry and terrible quarterback play. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. At the end of the day, a win is a win, but the Lions look like prime fade material again right now. Jets +2 (I’d advocate a play at any underdog price, but I think this could possibly hit +3, so hold off until later in the week) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Friday Consensus Line: Steelers -7.5, total 45

The Pick: The Bucs put in one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen in last week’s 56-14 blowout loss to Atlanta, but a lot can change in the span of a week. Tampa went into that Thursday contest with numerous injuries, but they welcome several key bodies back to the lineup this week, while the Steelers are the ones facing a depleted squad. Pittsburgh will be without cornerback Ike Taylor and linebacker Ryan Shazier on defense, and I actually believe Tampa Bay could be able to move the ball consistently this week. Mike Glennon takes over for Josh McCown at quarterback, and that immediately bolsters the Bucs’ passing game. McCown had major issues grasping a new offense, so the return to Glennon will provide the receivers with some familiarity. Glennon will also have some extra incentive to prove he should have been given the starting job to begin with. Doug Martin also returns to the lineup after missing last week due to injury, and he should find some success against a Steelers defense that surrenders 4.3 yards per carry. Tampa also welcomes back a pair of important players on the defensive side of the ball as defensive lineman Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson are expected to return. Their presence in the lineup will make things substantially more difficult for Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell, working behind a subpar offensive line. Based on what you witnessed last week, you’d assume another blowout is on deck, but I’m putting the Steelers on upset alert. Bucs 26, Steelers 23

The Wager: Both of these teams were on opposite ends of nationally-televised blowouts last week and that’s created some good value with the Bucs this week. Tampa is simply a better team with Glennon, Martin, McCoy, and Johnson back in the lineup, but they are being valued as the same embarrassing squad that took the field a week ago. I feel like this is a winnable game for the Bucs, so I’ll gladly grab the points. Bucs +7.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers

Friday Consensus Line: Chargers -13, total 45

The Pick: Usually I get to the Jaguars’ game in my preview and sit at my computer, starting aimlessly at the screen for several minutes. Eventually, I end up writing about how terrible they are, how drunk Chad Henne looks on a weekly basis, and then find some way to justify picking them against the spread. This week’s justification comes thanks to a quarterback change that probably should have been made after Week 1 (which may have already been too late). There is excitement in Jaguar Land (?) as Blake Bortles makes his first career regular-season start. Bortles looked okay in relief of Henne last week, but the Colts didn’t really care all that much at that point, and he was able to move the ball with relative ease. This isn’t exactly the best matchup for the young quarterback, but he may catch the Chargers’ defense ripe for the picking after three tough games to start the season. I’m not going to sit here and sell you on Toby Gerhart gashing the Chargers’ defense, or Cecil Shorts torching the Chargers’ secondary, but I will say this: Bortles immediately makes the Jags’ offense better. Henne was a statue in the pocket, and Bortles is actually capable of escaping pressure with his legs. He’s also not as hesitant to make throws when he has pressure bearing down on him, although that assumption is being made on limited preseason snaps. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their defense is bound to get gashed. Philip Rivers is an absolute stud (I can’t believe I ever doubted him), and should make do even without Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead in the lineup. Bortles will keep the Jags competitive for once, but expecting them to win out in San Diego doesn’t seem like a realistic feat. Chargers 26, Jaguars 19

The Wager: So, now that I’ve made every attempt to justify a Jaguars wager, I may as well go ahead and lock it in. This line is enormous. San Diego is a quality football team but they don’t fit the profile of a team that blows other teams out. The Jaguars were 9.5-point dogs in this spot prior to last week’s games, so as ugly as it seems, there’s just too much line value to pass up with the away team. Uggggghhhh. Jags +13 (I locked in +14 on my Twitter account early in the Week, but I like Jacksonville at any double-digit underdog price).

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -5, total 50.5

The Pick: Rewind to a season ago. It’s Week 4 and the 49ers are 1-2, coming off back-to-black blowout losses (combined score of 56-10). Everyone is panicking. “What’s wrong with the 49ers?”, “Jim Harbaugh has lost the locker room”, “San Francisco isn’t a playoff-caliber team.” These were the recurring topics being forced down everyone’s throats by the media, and wouldn’t you know it, the 49ers had a strong season. A very similar scenario is unfolding before our very eyes and I love this as a bounce-back spot for San Francisco. You can’t fault the Eagles for their 3-0 start, but you can find several flaws in those three wins. Philadelphia trailed by double-digits in each of those games, and they were the beneficiary of a lot of lucky breaks. Two weeks ago, the Eagles’ secondary got away with a clear hold on an Andrew Luck interception late in the fourth quarter, and last week, Nick Foles was lucky to not have a half-dozen interceptions (this is not an exaggeration). The Eagles will be without a whopping four offensive linemen this week, including center Jason Kelce, so I have little faith in Foles to turn around his spotty play. Speaking of spotty play, Colin Kaepernick is certainly not living up to that hefty contract he signed in the offseason, but there’s a great chance for him to go off this week. The Eagles are fresh off surrendering 400-plus passing yards to Kirk Cousins, so Kaepernick will have every opportunity to shred an awful defense, especially with Vernon Davis back in the lineup. Throw the records out the window. San Francisco is the better team, have a good matchup, and catch the Eagles traveling cross country after a big divisional win. 49ers 31, Eagles 17

The Wager: Perception and reality are two very different things. Everyone is puzzled as to how the perfect 3-0 Eagles can be getting this many points, and the answer is that everything has gone right for them so far this season. The 49ers have been shooting themselves in the foot, but Harbaugh has a tremendous record of getting his team back on track, and I think that’s the case this week. This game was one of the first games that stood out to me after the Eagles' #luckbox performance last week, and I’m sticking with my gut. 49ers -5

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Falcons -3 -105, total 46.5

The Pick: Atlanta is coming off of a curb stomping of the Bucs last weekend, but as is the case with so many NFL teams, we have to be aware of the venue this time around. This game will be held at TCF Bank Stadium, the home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, which happens to be an outdoor facility. Matt Ryan has already turned in a lemon at an outdoor stadium this season, and his career numbers take a significant drop when he’s outside the confines of a dome. The Vikings’ defense has played very well in back-to-back weeks against strong offensive personnel (Saints and Patriots), and they’ve shown a big improvement on that side of the ball under new head coach Mike Zimmer. The Falcons' defense, on the other hand, is still an abysmal unit. They shut down the Bucs last week thanks to Josh McCown throwing ducks and Bobby Rainey coughing up the ball at every possible moment, but they’ll find that things will be significantly tougher this week. Teddy Bridgewater replaces the injured Matt Cassel at quarterback, and he played much better than the score would indicate last week at New Orleans. Bridgewater was calm in the pocket and made a lot of pinpoint, accurate throws down the field, despite being in a hostile road environment. The former Louisville standout won’t have those same issues at home, and should have time to find open receivers since Atlanta doesn’t have much of a pass rush. The Falcons are riding high off of last week’s victory, but they’ll be brought back down to earth this week. Vikings 23, Falcons 14

The Wager: This line is mind boggling. Falcons -3 on the road suggests that they’d be -9 if this game was in Atlanta, which is in the same range as Saints/Vikings last week. The Falcons should not be valued as highly as the Saints. The wrong team is favored in this matchup and everyone is still lining up to bet them, which amazes me. Grab the points, laugh on Sunday. Vikings +3

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Friday Consensus Line: Saints -3 -115, total 53.5

The Pick: The Cowboys rallied from a 21-0 deficit last week to pick up their second straight win, and while that comeback was surely impressive, it also raised a lot of red flags. Tony Romo led the way for Dallas but they had to convert several third-and-longs late in the game to move the chains, a feat that isn’t always reproducible on a week-to-week basis. The Cowboys’ defense is still bad - very bad. They surrendered 448 yards of total offense to Austin Davis last week, and although Davis has looked alright since being inserted as the starter, he’s still a third-string quarterback. The Saints’ offense has yet to find their form from a year ago, but that’s only a matter of time with Drew Brees behind center and Sean Payton manning the sidelines. The Cowboys are in the bottom half of the league in literally every major defensive statistical category, so there’s definitely a possibility that New Orleans lights it up Sunday night. The bad news for the Saints: their defense has been as bad as Dallas’, if not worse. New Orleans has been incapable of stopping the run this season and that plays right into the Cowboys’ hands, as they’ve been involving DeMarco Murray heavily into their offensive game plans. The Cowboys should also be able to move the ball through the air, especially since the Saints have struggled to get to the quarterback all season. At the end of the day, this game has all the makings of a shootout. Both offenses seems to have significant edges over the opposing defenses, but the difference is that I trust New Orleans to protect the ball. The Cowboys always seems to find a way to embarrass themselves in front of a national audience, and I can’t get behind at team that is prone to mistakes. Saints 35, Cowboys 27

The Wager: New Orleans could easily be sitting at 3-0 right now instead of 1-2, and we’d still be looking at the Saints as a powerhouse in the NFC. It’s tempting to buy low on this Saints squad, but they’ll be such a huge public play on Sunday Night Football and I tend to avoid those sides at all costs. Maybe the Saints simply aren’t that good. Regardless, I think they’re the right side but have no confidence whatsoever in a play on them. Pass

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some of the sharpest NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s LVH/WestGate SuperContest. Why did they pick me? I have no idea, but nevertheless, I am competing in it. I am 6-9 ATS through the first three weeks of the season, which is obviously terrible, but there's still a lot of time to turn things around. All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after they’re submitted Friday evening.

Picks Summary

More NFL Betting Resources

Opening Line Report
Week 4 Staff Picks
Game Day Betting Update 
MNF Preview (Monday)