Williamson: Can the Seahawks overcome the loss of Earl Thomas?
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns, and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
In typical Earl Thomas fashion, the Seahawks' great safety flew through the air after making a great break on the ball to blow up a Cam Newton pass in the middle of the field Sunday night for the entire country to see. Unfortunately, Thomas collided with Kam Chancellor, breaking a bone in the Pro Bowler's lower leg. Thomas is now lost for the remainder of the season. How does this impact the Seahawks' run at another potential Super Bowl? First, let's examine what Thomas brings to the table, then what his loss means for this great defense and team overall.
Hall of Fame talent
Like Winston Wolf in "Pulp Fiction," Thomas solves problems. Thomas patrols the deep middle of the field in Seattle's predominant Cover 3 scheme as well as any safety in the NFL since Ed Reed. Thomas not only has great long speed, but he's very explosive and has excellent knowledge of the position, so he rarely takes false steps. And when Thomas arrives, he arrives with authority. He also possesses very good ball skills and is a more physical player and tackler than someone like Reed.
Thomas is both a big-play machine and a security blanket for Seattle’s coaching staff and his fellow defenders. Players like Richard Sherman know that they can afford to take more chances because Thomas erases problems if Sherman's gambles don't pay off. This leads to more big plays from the Seahawks' defense. Seattle also loves playing with a single high safety in the middle of the field, but that isn't something just any old safety can be asked to do over and over. Thomas' reliability (he played in 118 straight games before missing Seattle's Week 12 game in Tampa Bay ... which they lost) has allowed Chancellor to play a high percentage of his snaps near the line of scrimmage, which best suits his attributes - he's a very different type of safety than Thomas.
Thomas is a fantastic football player in his prime on a Hall of Fame career path. There is no way around it: He will be missed dearly, and his absence will have ripple effects.
Now what?
Steven Terrell will replace Thomas in an unquestionably huge downgrade. Do you think it was a coincidence that, on the play after Thomas left Sunday's game, Newton connected with Ted Ginn for a long touchdown in the deep middle of the field? Terrell will have time to prove himself and has a great cast of characters around him, but he's the opposite of Thomas in one important respect - instead of being able to compensate for issues his 10 teammates might cause, Terrell will need plenty of support from his fellow defenders.
Seattle is known for using a Cover 3 execution-based defense that doesn't try to fool opponents, but focuses on simply out-executing them with terrific football players. Defensive coordinator Kris Richard has varied things more this year, though. We're seeing more man-to-man coverage from Seattle than in years past, often with Sherman following a top wideout, but still with a single high safety.
Will Richard move Chancellor away from the ball and play him next to Terrell more in a two-high look? That's certainly not the area of the field where Chancellor does his best work, and it would weaken the defense against the run. How would that work out in Dallas in the NFC Championship Game?
We'll have to wait and see if Richard changes Seattle's scheme with Thomas no longer in the lineup or if the Seahawks trust Terrell to step into Thomas' enormous shoes. Still, the rest of their secondary is superb. The linebackers are outstanding, and the pass-rush is top notch with Michael Bennett back in the fold. Though losing Thomas hurts, it's difficult to imagine Seattle's defense suddenly becoming a liability without him.
It's also important to remember the Seahawks' strength on the other side of the ball. Considering how Russell Wilson is playing, the gradual improvement of the offensive line, and the way new contributors Thomas Rawls and Tyler Lockett have stepped up, Seattle's offense can rival just about any attack in the league.
Thomas is a truly rare player, but the Seahawks should remain a major contender for the Lombardi Trophy without him.