Gronkowski's injury levels playing field for AFC contenders
It was revealed Thursday that New England Patriots superstar Rob Gronkowski will undergo back surgery imminently, causing him to miss an expected eight weeks. Morbid as it may seem, the news reverberated around the NFL and it's easy to imagine several AFC general managers quietly rejoicing, as the conference's playing field is now leveled.
Make no mistake, the Patriots are a modern-day juggernaut until proven otherwise, but their ceiling is raised to stratospheric heights with Gronkowski in the lineup. In the 17 games Gronkowski's missed throughout his career, Tom Brady's passer rating sits at an anemic 84.5, but in the 86 games he's played, the future Hall of Famer's rating skyrockets to an outstanding 104.5 mark. Even without statistical quantification, Gronkowski's impact on the Patriots is irreplaceable, drawing attention from multiple defenders on every snap.
The most obvious benefactor of Gronkowski's prolonged absence are the Oakland Raiders, who lead the daunting AFC West at 9-2. For the majority of the year, the Raiders' fifth-ranked scoring offense (27.9 points per game) captivated audiences across North America, with fans dreaming of a Super Bowl. Yet, this is still a franchise seeking legitimacy, desperate to get rid of the stench borne from a previous decade of organizational incompetence. The Raiders are well equipped to beat the Patriots at their own game and could turn a potential AFC Championship Game showdown into a track meet, with Brady's most potent option in the owner's suite.
Gronkowski's injury also opens the window for the Patriots' principal rival, the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. The Broncos' vulnerabilities are out in the open, with rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian commandeering an offense that's often limited in its scope, while the team continues to pluck through a carousel of running backs. Denver's defense continues to be among the league's best units, and while it isn't approaching all-time great status like last year, Von Miller must be salivating at the prospect of tormenting Brady once again. Moreover, the Broncos' all-world cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris no longer have to account for Gronkowski, while safety Darian Stewart will be afforded more room to freelance.
The Raiders and Broncos are the primary contenders to knock the Patriots out of the playoffs, but the Patriots' margin of dominance over teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers is almost completely nullified. Kansas City's offense is reinvigorated with the emergence of rookie dynamo Tyreek Hill, and the club plays a physical style of defense that can force Brady out of the pocket and jam receivers at the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh's trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown is nearly unrivaled, and much like the Raiders, the Steelers can employ a run-and-gun tempo against the Patriots, now that Brady can't counteract with Gronkowkski.
To be clear, no one is forecasting the demise of the Patriots with Gronkowski sidelined, but the AFC East powerhouse's margin of error has been reduced significantly. The AFC didn't have a clear cut favorite prior to Gronkowski's injury, but now a number of contenders, both old and new, are provided with an ample opportunity to seize the conference title.