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Will Ezekiel Elliott join the 2,000-yard club?

Jeff Hanisch / USA TODAY Sports

Ezekiel Elliott's been better than advertised, leading the NFL with 703 rushing yards after being selected fourth overall in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Elliott is a primary reason why the Dallas Cowboys are on a five-game winning streak, and teammate Dez Bryant predicted the rookie running back will rush for over 2,000 yards this season.

Gaining national prominence, Elliott is now in range to become the eighth member of the NFL's 2,000-yard club - and the first first-year player to join. We assess his chances here after a look at the Cowboys' remaining opponents.

Remaining schedule

Opponent Rushing defense rank*
Philadelphia Eagles 17
Cleveland Browns 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Baltimore Ravens 2
Washington Redskins 28
Minnesota Vikings 5
New York Giants 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Detroit Lions 20
Philadelphia Eagles 17

*Rushing defense rank as of Monday night prior to Cardinals-Jets game

The case for Elliott reaching 2,000 yards

Elliott's youth ought to serve him well, if history provides any indication. No member of the 2,000-yard club reached the plateau after their sixth season except Barry Sanders. At 21, Elliott hasn't accumulated the wear and tear that eventually brings most running backs to a crashing halt.

The Cowboys will afford Elliott every opportunity to break 2,000 yards, since he's on pace for 365 carries this year. Every member of this exclusive group ran the ball between 332 and 392 times in their record-setting campaigns.

Elliott will play five teams that rank in the lower half of rushing defense, and he's coming off a game in which he torched Green Bay's third-ranked unit to the tune of 157 yards on 28 attempts. Moreover, Elliott gets to play behind the league's best offensive line, with guard Zack Martin and center Travis Frederick in All-Pro form.

The case against Elliott reaching 2,000 yards

Elliott and quarterback Dak Prescott are playing as well as any rookie can, but there's a reason why no first-year player cracked the 2,000-yard mark. Eventually, Elliott will be subject to another subpar game that may derail his chances - and that's not completely theoretical, with the Vikings and Ravens looming large on the schedule.

There's also a chance that Tony Romo returns to the starting lineup from a broken collarbone, supplanting Prescott, who's been excellent. If Romo regains his old spot, the Cowboys' offense will become more pass-heavy, with Romo well versed in the nuances of the team's passing game. As a result, Elliott would no longer be as heavily relied upon, and while the team ought to remain successful, his individual output could take a hit.

He's on pace for an 1,874-yard season, a remarkable feat in its own right, but he'd need to continue to improve at a stunning rate to push toward the 2,000-yard target. At his current clip, Elliott would still top Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 rushing yards, but close is no cigar.

Verdict

Elliott boasts the talent and personnel around him to join the 2,000-yard club, but it's a nearly impossible achievement to expect from a rookie, even one with the power, speed, size, and field vision that he's routinely displayed. The Cowboys' emerging star will get to 1,900 yards and break Dickerson's record, but will ultimately fall short of the 2,000-yard goal. However, Elliott will capture Offensive Rookie of the Year, the rushing title, and first-team All-Pro honors in the process.

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