Even with Fitzpatrick, Jets are far from contenders
The standoff between Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets has finally reached its conclusion, with the club bringing back the veteran passer on a one-year, $12-million deal on Wednesday.
The contract puts him among the lowest-paid starters in the league, but both parties seem to be happy, with the Jets locking down a viable No. 1 quarterback and Fitzpatrick able to earn more through incentives.
But should they be happy?
In 2015, Fitzpatrick put up the best statistical year of his career. He had 31 passing touchdowns, threw for 3,905 yards, and almost led the Jets to the playoffs.
His performance, however, was an anomaly in an otherwise substandard career. Prior to 2015, Fitzpatrick had never thrown more than 24 touchdowns in a season, and only briefly looked like a legitimate starter the season before the Buffalo Bills handed him a big-money deal.
By bringing back Fitzpatrick, the Jets are essentially banking on repeating - or slightly improving upon - the success of last season.
They're hoping Fitzpatrick can have another career year, Brandon Marshall can keep performing like a top-tier receiver at age 32, and free-agent addition Matt Forte can recapture his Pro-Bowl form.
The defense, too, is among the league's oldest.
While Marshall should be good for another year, Forte can likely perform well if the Jets don't ride him too hard, and the defense has enough talent to be a solid unit, New York shouldn't be surprised when Fitzpatrick fails to continue his form.
Behind Fitzpatrick's impressive numbers in 2015 was still a bad quarterback.
The 33-year-old continued to struggle with turnovers, throwing 15 interceptions and fumbling five times (losing two). He should have had more, as he continuously attempted risky passes that were either dropped by defenses or bailed out by his receivers.
Fitzpatrick's poor accuracy and struggles with the deep ball continued in 2015, too. His 59.6 completion percentage put him 29th out of 34 qualifying passers, while his yards-per-attempt ranking was only marginally better, with his 6.95 YPA good for just 27th out of 34.
The Jets may not have had a better alternative than signing Fitzpatrick. Geno Smith barely looked like a starting-quality passer during his brief time leading the Jets' offense in 2013 and 2014, and Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg are both at least a year away from being ready to compete for the starting role.
But if the Jets believe they'll make a leap forward under Fitzpatrick, they're sorely mistaken. Teams that outperform expectations often slide back to their normal level the following season, and New York is a prime candidate to do just that.
As evidenced last season, Chan Gailey's offense and the skills of Marshall and Eric Decker can mask Fitzpatrick's flaws to a certain extent. But the veteran has proven time and time again during his career that he shouldn't be any franchise's unquestioned starter.
The Jets and their fans might be happy now, but it's likely that emotion will be replaced by abject disappointment when Fitzpatrick's limitations mean they'll be sitting at home once again come January.