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Which 3rd-year QB is primed to join the NFL's elite?

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The 2014 NFL Draft produced three franchise quarterbacks: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater.

All three have enjoyed impressive starts to their careers, firmly establishing themselves as the future of their respective teams. But are any of them on the verge of becoming an upper-echelon passer?

We examined their production so far, their standing within advanced statistic metrics, and their supporting casts to determine which player is most likely to make a major leap in 2016.

Production

*Bortles started 13 games in his rookie season; Bridgewater started 12

Examining the production of the three passers, it's clear that Bortles and Bridgewater are on opposite ends of the volume-efficiency spectrum, with Carr hovering somewhere in the middle.

Bortles' statistical explosion in his sophomore season was spectacular. He more than tripled his number of passing touchdowns and came close to the 4,500-yard passing mark. However, his interception numbers and completion percentage show his weaknesses; both are similar to his rookie season, albeit in more passing attempts. It's clear Bortles has an outstanding skill set, but unless his turnover and accuracy issues are fixed, there's probably a ceiling on how good he'll be in 2016.

Bridgewater's lack of statistical output has been the crux of the argument for those who don't believe he's a franchise passer. His numbers in his second season were almost identical to his first season, despite the fact he started four fewer games during his rookie campaign. Part of the reason for his lack of improvement was the return of Adrian Peterson, with the Vikings shifting back to a run-first offense. It's unlikely Minnesota will radically alter that offensive approach next season, so Bridgewater could continue to miss out on the opportunities Bortles and Carr are afforded.

Carr walked the line between putting up big numbers and remaining efficient for a quarterback at this stage of their career. He increased his touchdowns, passing yards, and completion percentage while dropping his number of interceptions to an acceptable level. Carr's stats indicate his skill set may be the most complete of the three quarterbacks, as they don't reveal a glaring weakness like Bortles' or Bridgewater's numbers.

Advantage: Bortles/Carr

Advanced statistics

QBR PFF rating DVOA
Bortles (2015) 46.4 (27th out of 33) +10.0 25th
Bortles (2014) 25.2 (30th out of 30) -40.4 43rd
Carr (2015) 49.2 (23rd out of 30) +12.2 13th
Carr (2014) 38.2 (28th out of 30) -32.6 34th
Bridgewater (2015) 62.7 (13th out of 33) +9.3 22nd
Bridgewater (2014) 56.9 (17th out of 30) +4.5  37th

Despite being the most productive player in terms of raw numbers, advanced statistics were not kind to Bortles. He made a small leap from the worst quarterback in the league by ESPN's QBR to the seventh worst. In fairness, Bortles' rating as a passer in the metric put him 15th in the league, with his overall score dragged down by his poor play against pressure and while taking sacks. While PFF and DVOA were gentler, Bortles' boom-or-bust style of play doesn't appear to sit well with the advanced metrics crowd in general.

Carr's rookie season was judged to be almost as bad as Bortles', with all three metrics ranking him near the bottom of the league. However, Carr saw significant jumps in his PFF rating and DVOA score, where he was considered close to a top 10 passer. His QBR was worse due to his lack of impact as a runner and his play being considered slightly below what an average passer could produce.

Bridgewater trails them both in regular statistics, but his efficient style of play allows him to fare the best in the advanced area, especially in QBR. His rookie season, in particular, was far better than Carr's and Bortles'. However, Bridgewater's improvement from his first to second season wasn't nearly as dramatic as the other two young quarterbacks. This could be attributed to the fact that he had less room to progress due to his impressive rookie campaign, but it's still a concern.

Advantage: Carr/Bridgewater

Supporting cast

Projected starting offense

Pos. Jaguars Raiders Vikings
RB Chris Ivory Latavius Murray Adrian Peterson
WR Allen Robinson Amari Cooper Stefon Diggs
WR Allen Hurns Michael Crabtree Laquon Treadwell
WR Marqise Lee Andre Holmes Jarius Wright
TE Julius Thomas Clive Walford Kyle Rudolph
LT Luke Joeckel Donald Penn Matt Kalil
LG Mackenzy Bernadeau Kelechi Osemele Brandon Fusco
C Brandon Linder Rodney Hudson John Sullivan
RG AJ Cann Gabe Jackson Alex Boone
RT Jermey Parnell Menelik Watson Phil Loadholt

Bortles may be blessed with the best receiver tandem in the league. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both have outstanding size and the ability to compensate for Bortles' lack of accuracy. The passing game was the crux of the offense in 2015, but the Jags have made moves to improve their 27th-ranked running game. Chris Ivory will likely be the starter, but T.J. Yeldon will also get a fair share of the carries as the Jags could look to feature the running game more. This should help Bortles in the long term, but means his chances to develop could be reduced in 2016.

Oakland has constructed what's perhaps the best offensive line in the league to protect Carr. While the quarterback improved his ability under pressure in 2015, it's still one of his more obvious flaws, so if the unit can live up to its potential, Carr could excel. Like the Jaguars, the Raiders struggled to run the football in 2015. The addition of guard Kelechi Osemele could boost the ground game, but the offense should still run through Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree.

The Vikings put Bridgewater under center more in 2015 to accommodate Peterson, as it's the formation the running back performs best from. There's one problem: Bridgewater is much more effective out of the shotgun. The Vikings have young playmakers and an offensive line that appears solid if healthy, but until they alter their offense to revolve around Bridgewater, his output will be limited.

Conclusion

Though Bortles' statistical explosion and Bridgewater's efficiency signal they may be good - though likely wildly different - players in the near future, Carr's the most promising candidate to knock on the door of the elite category in 2016.

Top to bottom, the Raiders' roster suddenly appears to be one of the more complete in the league. Carr cutting down his interceptions and boosting his YPA are both great indicators of future success, and the rest of the offense appears best prepared to boost him during his third season in the league.

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