DFS: The Slate, Part 1: A Detailed Look at the Week 10 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (click here for Part II; all times ET):
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -10 1/2 (opened at -13)
O/U: 50 (opened at 47 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 54 F; SW wind @ 7 mph
Lions QB Matthew Stafford is averaging 238 passing yards with a 5:5 TD:INT ratio in four road games this season; this one could be over early, but don't bank on enough garbage time production to make him anything but a GPP flier. ... RB Joique Bell led the Detroit backfield in touches last week, but that means nothing. The Lions won't be running much, anyhow, so avoid their RBs. ... WR Calvin Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury, but has 14 TDs in 14 career games against the Packers - so if he plays, he should be productive enough to entertain using in a tournament. ... TE Eric Ebron could see a garbage-time stat boost, and is enough of a red-zone threat to warrant GPP consideration. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in four home games in 2015: 1,078 passing yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs; he should tear the Lions' secondary to ribbons and look good doing it. Trust him in all formats. ... RB James Starks has taken over lead-back duties from Eddie Lacy; this is a great matchup for Starks, who should see 20+ touches due to positive game flow. He's a great play in all game types. ... WR Randall Cobb is the only cash-game option in the passing game, while Davante Adams is an intriguing GPP option after racking up seven catches for 93 yards last week. ... TE Richard Rodgers is a cost-saving option who should see five targets and provide a modest return.
Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 17
DFS MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers +1 (opened at -1)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 43)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 F; E wind @ 10 mph
Cowboys QB Matt Cassel is looking at a plus matchup in what will likely be his final week as Tony Romo's fill-in; the Buccaneers are allowing opposing QBs to complete better than 70 percent of their passes with 19 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Cassel is an interesting tournament option. ... RB Darren McFadden will see all the work he can handle, making him a decent play in both formats. His price hasn't yet caught up with his mammoth workload. ... WR Dez Bryant is hands off for another week; he just doesn't seem to have chemistry with any Dallas QB not named Romo. ... Cole Beasley is a low-cost tournament stacking option as Cassel's preferred target. ... At the moment, TE Jason Witten isn't DFS relevant; he may have a big game, but the risk is too great. ... Bucs QB Jameis Winston hasn't thrown an interception in four games, and that streak may continue against a Dallas secondary that has just three picks all season. Winston is on the cash-game radar, though his upside is capped by the Cowboys' ability to limit passing scores. ... RB Doug Martin, on the other hand, is a top-3 play in all formats against a Dallas run defense that has been gashed for an average of 139 yards over the past three games and is without LB Sean Lee, among others. ... WR Mike Evans is a solid play, though his increased price tag - and last week's six drops - are concerning. Temper expectations, but fire him up everywhere. ... TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a terrific value play if he suits up; monitor his status.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 20
DFS MVP: Doug Martin
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers -3 1/2 (opened at -4)
O/U: 42 1/2 (opened at 42)
Weather: Clear, 59 F; ESE wind @ 4 mph
Carolina's Cam Newton is the league's top dual-threat QB - making him an every-week option in all formats. The Tennessee pass defense is solid, but Newton should do enough with his arm and his legs to at least return suitable cash-game value. ... RB Jonathan Stewart is looking at positive game flow, but will never have the upside of other lead backs due to Newton's involvement in the run game; fade him in favor of better options at his price point. ... As usual, the only reliable pass-catching option is TE Greg Olsen, who squares off against a Titans pass defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. He's an all-format play. ... Titans QB Marcus Mariota faces his stiffest test as a pro; the Panthers make QBs pay for their mistakes (13 INT) and should provide more than enough pressure (25 sacks) to limit Mariota's DFS value to GPPs. ... RB Antonio Andrews may be a victim of game flow if Carolina gets ahead; he isn't a recommended play. ... With WR Kendall Wright set to miss another week, the focus will be on rookie Dorial Beckham-Green and TE Delanie Walker. DBG is a GPP-only play against a tough Panthers secondary, while Walker should be playable in all formats as Mariota's much-needed safety valve.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Titans 20
DFS MVP: Greg Olsen
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Line: Rams -7 1/2 (opened at -8)
O/U: 42 (opened at 42 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Don't bet on Bears QB Jay Cutler this week; the Rams are stifling opposing QBs, having allowed just five passing touchdowns and 220 yards per game through the air. ... RB Jeremy Langford should see enough work to be DFS relevant, but with St. Louis limiting opposing rushers to 3.8 YPC, he'll need major volume to be reach the kind of value required to win in GPPs. ... WR Alshon Jeffery is the lone all-format play for the Bears; he'll soak up the targets all afternoon as Chicago finds itself in catch-up mode. ... TE Martellus Bennett is too pricey given his lack of production. Look elsewhere. ... How bad is Rams QB Nick Foles? He isn't even a recommended play at home against the Bears. St. Louis may win this going away, but it won't be by Foles' hand. ... RB Todd Gurley, step right up. Gurley should see 20+ touches; combine that with positive game flow and the Bears' suspect defense, and Gurley may be in for his biggest day of the season. Play him everywhere. ... None of the Rams' WR choices are recommended plays (no, not even Wes Welker). ... TE Jared Cook is a GPP long-shot option based solely on the chance he gets some red-zone looks.
Prediction: Rams 24, Bears 17
DFS MVP: Todd Gurley
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints -1 (opened at PK)
O/U: 52 (opened at 51)
Weather: Clear, 58 F; WSW wind @ 9 mph
Saints QB Drew Brees has made a lot of DFS players a lot of money the past two weeks; his ceiling isn't quite as high this Sunday, but with Vegas expecting a tight, high-scoring game, he's still a great play across all formats. ... RB Mark Ingram will see enough volume to be a star play; his receiving yards are back up following three straight down weeks, increasing his value further. ... WRs Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead are both in the DFS conversation, with Cooks possessing higher upside for GPP play and Snead more likely to provide a strong PPR base in cash games. ... TE Benjamin Watson has reeled in 28 catches on 32 targets over the past four weeks; he won't always be a star, but his floor makes him a cash-game stud. ... Redskins QB Kirk Cousins will never see a better matchup in his life: a home date with a Saints defense that has been scorched for 24 touchdowns while snagging just four interceptions. Cousins should be rostered in all formats. ... RBs Matt Jones and Alfred Morris will likely be afterthoughts in this one, while Chris Thompson is worth a GPP flier as the pass-catching option in the Redskins' three-headed backfield. ... WR DeSean Jackson is a decent option, though he carries some risk given his slow recovery from a hamstring ailment. Try him in GPPs, but avoid him in cash games. ... Pierre Garcon is back to being mostly invisible. He's not worth consideration. ... TE Jordan Reed is primed for a huge performance as Cousins' No. 1 option. A Cousins-Reed stack will be popular, with the potential for big points at a low cap hit.
Prediction: Redskins 31, Saints 30
DFS MVP: Kirk Cousins
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles -5 1/2 (opened at -6 1/2)
O/U: 49 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 56 F; W wind @ 9 mph
Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in back-to-back games; that streak should end Sunday, but the Eagles' vaunted pass defense should keep Tannehill sufficiently in check to limit his DFS appeal. Look elsewhere this week. ... Just as RB Lamar Miller appears to have graduated to 20+ weekly touches, head coach Dan Campbell says he'd like to see rookie Jay Ajayi more involved. There may be fire here, but for the time being, treat Miller as a workhorse back - and fire him up in all formats. Philly is vulnerable against the run despite having allowed just three TDs on the ground. ... WR Jarvis Landry is again a cash-game option, while Rishard Matthews is a high-risk GPP play. Ignore the the rest of the Dolphins' pass catchers. ... Eagles QB Sam Bradford has gone three straight games without throwing for multiple touchdowns. He has had one game all year in which he has returned value. And he doesn't run. Conversation over. ... RB DeMarco Murray has had 20+ touches in four straight weeks, racking up three touchdowns and 18 receptions over that span. He's the best DFS option on either team, and should trample a Dolphins run defense allowing the second-most yards per game (142.1). ... Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles are long-shot tournament options only. ... WR Jordan Matthews has been ordinary in three straight games; ignore him.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Dolphins 20
DFS MVP: DeMarco Murray
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers -7 (opened at -4 1/2)
O/U: 42 1/2 (opened at 41)
Weather: Clear, 54 F; SW wind @ 9 mph
The Browns are being secretive, but reports suggest Johnny Manziel will start at QB; he's a decent GPP flier against a Steelers pass defense allowing 273 passing yards per game, but DFS players should downgrade the rest of the Cleveland offense. ... RB Isaiah Crowell is still sitting on the fringes of DFS relevance, though he isn't guaranteed enough work to be a cash-game play and doesn't have the upside for GPPs. Leave him unowned. ... Duke Johnson Jr. is worthy of tournament consideration due to his role in the passing game. ... WR Travis Benjamin is a fade candidate this week; Mr. Football prefers to spread the ball around, negating the DFS value of the entire Cleveland receiving corps. ... TE Gary Barnidge had the most to gain from Josh McCown's potential return; as it stands, he's only a tournament option despite facing a Steelers team that is fourth-worst at defending the position. ... QB Landry Jones isn't a recommended play against the Browns' pass defense, which has struggled in recent weeks but is still better than average. ... RB DeAngelo Williams is a high-floor, high-ceiling must-play option thanks to positive game flow, role in the offense and a matchup with a truly dreadful Cleveland run defense. ... It took a while to materialize, but WR Antonio Brown seems to have developed chemistry with Jones. Brown's ceiling obviously shrinks with Ben Roethlisberger likely out, but he should still see enough volume to warrant cash-game consideration. ... Martavis Bryant is also in line for a strong game, though he may be a bit too rich to rely on in cash games. ... Ignore TE Heath Miller this week.
Prediction: Steelers 24, Browns 17
DFS MVP: DeAngelo Williams
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -5 1/2 (opened at -6 1/2)
O/U: 47 (opened at 48)
Weather: Clear, 56 F; W wind @ 9 mph
This could be a big week for Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, who squares off against an underwhelming Ravens secondary; Bortles is an inaccurate passer prone to make silly mistakes, but will likely be throwing a ton in this one. He's playable in all formats. ... RB T.J. Yeldon will see early-game work, but if this game plays out the way Vegas expects it to, he'll struggle to reach value. ... WR Allen Robinson is a matchup nightmare for Baltimore, and could emerge as an even bigger threat if Allen Hurns (foot) sits; fire up Robinson and enjoy what could be his best game of the year. ... Hurns is a GPP option if he plays. ... TE Julius Thomas is a tournament consideration if Hurns is in the lineup, and becomes a cash-game play if he isn't. ... Ravens QB Joe Flacco is looking at an implied point total of 27; where those points are supposed to come from is anyone's guess, considering Flacco's receiving corps is in shambles. There are better options at his price point, even against visiting Jacksonville. ... RB Justin Forsett lines up against a Jaguars run defense limiting opposing backs to a league-low 3.2 YPC. Game flow and workload are in his favor, however, and at his price, he's in play in all formats. ... Baltimore's wide receivers should be avoided in cash games. If you're looking for a dart throw, try Kamar Aiken, who has looked solid at times. ... TE Crockett Gillmore is in great position to reach value given Flacco's reliance on tight ends. Use him in all formats as a cost saver.
Prediction: Jaguars 27, Ravens 20
DFS MVP: Allen Robinson