Champions League Betting Preview: Semi-finals, May 12-13
It's now or never for a pair of Europe's top clubs.
Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, both considered Champions League favourites at various points this season, will need to overcome first-leg deficits against Barcelona and Juventus, respectively, if they hope to make an appearance in June's showpiece match.
If anybody can do it, it's these two Goliaths. Will they do it? That's another matter.
Here's a betting overview for this week's matches.
Bayern Munich v. Barcelona
Odds:
| Result | bet365 | BetVictor | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 163/100 | 13/8 | 13/8 |
| Draw | 14/5 | 14/5 | 5/2 |
| Barcelona | 8/5 | 13/8 | 17/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 61/100 | 13/20 | 6/10 |
| Under 2.5 | 5/4 | 13/10 | 5/4 |
Analysis: Friend 1: "Hey, remember when Bayern Munich lost 3-1 to Porto in the first leg of the quarterfinals, and everyone thought they were definitely getting knocked out?"
Friend 2: "Yeah, that was hilarious. So many people were eating crow when they came back and won 6-1 in the second leg. There's no reason they can't do that again."
Casual observer, before strolling away: "Barcelona is not Porto."
End of conversation.
Bayern Munich is a wonderful team, but, wracked with injuries, they are simply inferior to Barcelona - just as Porto and every other team on the planet is at the moment.
Now they'll have to open up and attack in the hopes of scoring at least three goals to overturn the massive 3-0 deficit from last week's opening leg. They might even score a couple. They probably will. But that whole "Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez on the counter-attack" thing is a Great Wall of China-sized problem.
Here's some free money: take the over.
Prediction: Barcelona 2, Bayern Munich 2
The Play: Over 2.5 goals at 13/20 (BetVictor)
Real Madrid v. Juventus
Odds:
| Result | bet365 | BetVictor | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 67/100 | 7/10 | 4/6 |
| Draw | 16/5 | 31/10 | 3/1 |
| Juventus | 9/2 | 17/4 | 9/2 |
| Over 2.5 | 4/5 | 5/6 | 8/11 |
| Under 2.5 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
Analysis: This is a perfect spot to use the emoji with the dude that has his hands out, looking dumbfounded.
Real Madrid needs to score, but only once, after their 2-1 loss in last week's opening leg. They employ Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema, James Rodriguez and Isco. That probably won't be a problem.
A more significant issue will be preventing Juventus from finding the net in the other direction. In both the first leg and their 2-2 draw with Valencia over the weekend, Los Blancos looked frail defensively. That they even managed a point in the latter match had more to do with Alvaro Negredo's impotent finishing than anything else.
So, sure, they'll probably score at the Santiago Bernabeu. It's hard to imagine their Champions League title defense ending with a goalless whimper.
And yet, it's equally difficult to see them containing Carlos Tevez and Alvaro Morata, both well rested, along with the Italian club's myriad midfield threats - which will include Paul Pogba, in some capacity, after the Frenchman's return from a hamstring injury.
Prediction: Real Madrid 1, Juventus 1
The Play: Draw at 16/5 (bet365)
Odds courtesy bet365, BetVictor, William Hill