Draft 101: Breaking down the draft trade chart
What's the top pick in the draft worth? What about a mid-round pick? When does it make sense to trade multiple picks to move up in the draft?
In 1991, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones wanted to quantify the value of each pick to make trading selections easier. He also wanted to exploit inefficiencies in the market and find value in trade-backs. So, Jones asked business partner Mike McCoy to establish a draft trade chart. This is what he came up with:
(Courtesy: DraftCountdown.com)
To this day, most NFL teams use a version of the chart, which assigns a number of points to each draft slot. It's not a hard-and-fast set of rules, but it creates a baseline for the trade negotiations that regularly occur when teams are on the clock and up against a deadline during the draft.
Does the Cowboys' original value chart still hold up? Let's examine a few recent draft pick trades and find out.
Vikings-Browns, 2014
The Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns negotiated a swap of the eighth and ninth overall picks in the 2014 draft, with the Browns ultimately moving up one spot to draft cornerback Justin Gilbert. The Vikings selected rush linebacker Anthony Barr.
| Traded picks | Chart value |
|---|---|
| Vikings gave up: | |
| No. 8 overall | 1400 points |
| ---- | ---- |
| Browns gave up: | |
| No. 9 overall | 1350 points |
| No. 145 overall | 33.5 points |
| Total: | 1383.5 points |
The chart likely made this trade an easy one for the teams to work out. The Browns needed to add roughly 50 points in value to the No. 9 pick and accomplished it by including their fifth-round selection.
Though the Browns come out slightly ahead on value here, the Vikings were happy to "lose" the trade - they only moved back one spot and still got the player they wanted.
Patriots-Vikings, 2013
The Vikings traded four picks to the New England Patriots to move up from the second round into the late first round and select receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.
| Traded picks | Chart value |
|---|---|
| Patriots gave up: | |
| No. 29 overall | 640 points |
| ---- | ---- |
| Vikings gave up: | |
| No. 52 overall | 380 points |
| No. 83 overall | 175 points |
| No. 102 overall | 92 points |
| No. 229 overall | 2 points |
| Total: | 649 points |
This is another example of a trade that's closely aligned with the chart. With few exceptions, most draft trades fit the framework.
Browns-Bills, 2014
Trades get a little more complicated when they include draft picks in a future year, as the chart doesn't specify their value (in part because their exact slot isn't yet known). The general rule applied by NFL teams is that future picks lose a round of value for each subsequent year. In other words, a 2016 first-round pick is equivalent in value to a 2015 second-rounder until the conclusion of the 2015 draft. A 2017 first-round pick is equivalent to a 2015 third-rounder.
If that seems illogical, consider that most general managers and head coaches know they're always one poor season away from being out of work. As such, they're very hesitant to trade assets that can help them in the immediate future. Forward thinking is a luxury only afforded to coaches confident in their job security.
With that framework in mind, let's investigate the Buffalo Bills' 2014 decision to trade up to select wide receiver Sammy Watkins with the benefit of hindsight.
| Traded picks | Chart value |
|---|---|
| Browns gave up: | |
| No. 4 overall | 1800 points |
| ---- | ---- |
| Bills gave up: | |
| No. 9 overall | 1350 points |
| 2015 1st | 390 points* |
| 2015 4th | 32.6 points† |
| Total: | 1772.6 points |
* Pick became No. 19 overall. Valued a round lower at No. 51 overall.
† Pick became No. 115 overall. Valued a round lower at No. 147 overall.
On paper, this looks like an even swap. The Browns could have come out as winners had the Bills finished near the bottom of the league in 2014, but the Bills went 9-7 and earned the 19th overall pick.
Rams-Redskins, 2012
The usefulness of the draft value chart starts to break down when one examines deals like the 2012 blockbuster that saw the Washington Redskins work out a deal with the St. Louis Rams to move up four spots and select Robert Griffin III second overall.
| Traded picks | Chart value |
|---|---|
| Rams gave up: | |
| No. 2 overall | 2600 points |
| ---- | ---- |
| Rams gave up: | |
| No. 6 overall | 1600 points |
| No. 39 overall | 510 points |
| 2013 1st | 360 points* |
| 2014 1st | 260 points† |
| Total: | 2730 points |
* Pick became No. 22 overall. Valued a round lower at No. 54 overall.
† Pick became No. 2 overall. Valued two rounds lower at No. 34 overall.
Though the trade appears relatively even on paper, there's no denying the loss of future first-round picks, combined with Griffin's disappointing career to date, has crippled the Redskins.
What hurts most for the Redskins is the 2014 first-round draft pick included in this deal. That became the second overall pick - the same slot where the Redskins selected Griffin - yet the Redskins received only a third-round value for it when they traded it away.
New paradigm needed?
Several draft analysts have argued in recent years that the Cowboys' original draft chart is outdated. As rookie salaries and the salary cap fluctuate, so too does the value of rookie contracts.
NFL teams and analysts are hard at work crafting new charts that can better help them identify opportunities to find value in the draft. Some of these new ideas have been made public, like Chase Stuart of FootballPerspective.com's attempt to create a model based more closely on the expected value from each draft slot.
Ultimately, the value of the Cowboys' chart is not in the numbers it contains, but in the idea it proposed. Even in the age of free agency, the draft is far and away the quickest and easiest route for bad NFL teams to turn their fortunes around. As we see year after year, teams that acquire draft capital tend to be the ones that thrive.