Free Agency Forecast: Predicting where the top offensive free agents will sign
In an unprecedented series of events, we know where most of the top offensive free agents will sign at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday well in advance of the deadline. Julius Thomas is expected to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars on a mega-deal, Jeremy Maclin will almost certainly join the Kansas City Chiefs, Torrey Smith is prepared to sign with the San Francisco 49ers and Rodney Hudson is going to the Raiders.
While everyone loves a juicy rumor, these leaks have taken much of the fun out of predicting where each free agent will sign. But we already did it for the top defensive free agents (and a few predictions have already come true), so we might as well dust off the crystal ball and forecast where the top offensive free agents - the ones whose futures remain a mystery - will sign:
Jordan Cameron
The Seattle Seahawks reportedly tried to trade Percy Harvin for Julius Thomas and later Jordan Cameron last season. They want an upgrade at tight end. The Seahawks don't have the salary cap space to sign Thomas as a free agent, but Cameron could be just the type of bargain Seahawks general manager John Schneider covets.
Prediction: Seahawks on a two-year, $8-million deal ($4 million guaranteed)
Michael Crabtree
Crabtree looked like an emerging star in 2012, but injuries and poor quarterback play brought him down to earth each of the past two seasons. Questions remain about what kind of player he can be. Does he have the speed to get open down-field or is he purely a possession receiver? The Miami Dolphins have plenty of money to spend and a passing attack based largely on short passes. Crabtree is a great fit.
Prediction: Dolphins on a four-year, $18-million deal ($8 million guaranteed)
C.J. Spiller
Spiller will hit the open market after watching his former team commit an absurd $16 million to LeSean McCoy for next season. Spiller will be lucky if the total money in his next deal matches what McCoy will earn in 2015. Though he's a game-changing talent when fully healthy and used properly, Spiller's injury history will lead teams to view him as a complementary piece. Spiller's best year came under Chan Gailey, who's now the offensive coordinator with the New York Jets. A reunion makes sense.
Prediction: Jets on a two-year, $10-million deal ($5 million guaranteed)
Ryan Mathews
Like Spiller, Mathews' earning potential is capped by his failure to stay healthy throughout his career. The San Francisco 49ers are expected to lose Frank Gore to the Philadelphia Eagles and need a veteran to pair with second-year tailback Carlos Hyde. Mathews and Hyde would be a nice one-two punch.
Prediction: 49ers on a three-year, $12-million deal ($4 million guaranteed)
Mike Iupati
Is a guard ever worth $8 million per year? That's reportedly what Iupati is seeking. There's no doubt he's a dominant player at his position, but the high-priced guard is a very rare thing in the NFL. The Raiders may have no other choice but to target Iupati after swinging and missing on Ndamukong Suh and Randall Cobb. They have to spend their $70 million in cap space somewhere.
Prediction: Raiders on a five-year, $41.5-million deal ($26 million guaranteed)
Bryan Bulaga
The Packers will ask Bulaga to take a hometown discount like many before him, but Bulaga knows he can break the bank on the open market as the clear-cut top tackle available. The Titans recently released Michael Oher and have nobody to play on the right side of the line. They'll open their wallets.
Prediction: Titans on a four-year, $34-million deal ($21 million guaranteed)
DeMarco Murray
DeMarco Murray touched the ball 497 times last season including playoffs. The Cowboys worked him into the ground, perhaps because they knew they planned to let him walk in free agency and replace him with a cheaper player. Giving a big-money deal to a 27-year old coming off a workload like Murray's is an extremely risky proposition, but the Jaguars are a desperate team. If general manager David Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley don't contend for a playoff spot next season, they will lose their jobs. Adding Murray will take the heat off Blake Bortles and allow him to develop at a slower pace.
Prediction: Jaguars on a five-year, $34-million deal ($17 million guaranteed)