What Nene's absence means for the Wizards

In a Conference as inferior and as muddled as this season's East, a 28-28 team like the Wizards, who should theoretically be playing just for playoff survival, are instead playing for a realistic chance of having home court advantage in a playoff series for the first time since 1979.

That is, potentially, until now.

After beating the Cavaliers last night, the Wizards find themselves fifth in the East, just 1.5 games behind fourth-place Chicago, three games behind third-place Toronto and a full five games ahead of ninth-place Detroit. But during that 96-83 win over Cleveland, Washington lost Nene to a left knee injury, and while reports of a sprained MCL and a 4-6 week absence are much better than earlier reported fears that the big man's season was over with a torn ligament, the recovery time still paints a pretty desperate picture for the team as they head down the season's stretch run..

Between John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza (and even recently acquired Andre Miller), the Wizards should still have enough talent to keep their heads above water in the 'race' to finish in the East's top-eight, but they'd likely have to play about .500 basketball the rest of the way if they want a chance to finish with an all-important top-six seed and any chance in hell of winning a series.

To accomplish that, the Wizards are going to need to play at least somewhat respectable defense, and without Nene patrolling the paint and surrounding areas, that becomes near impossible.

You can look at the big Nene-less picture, where the Wizards have gone 8-34 in 42 games without the big man since trading for him late in the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season and where the team is outscored by 3.3 points when Nene is on the bench this season compared to outscoring their opponents by 3.2 when he's on the court, but the real devil is in the defensive details.

Washington's offense produces at exactly the same rate (101.8 points per 100 possessions) regardless of whether Nene is on the court or off, according to NBA.com's stats database, but their defense gives up an extra 6.7 points per 100 possessions with the Brazilian out. With Nene on the floor, Washington's defensive rating of 99.0 would rank third in the NBA as one of only five teams to allow less than one point per possession. Their porous mark of 105.7 with Nene off the floor, on the other hand, would rank tied for 24th with Sacramento (Washington ranks ninth overall with a 102.0 defensive rating).

In addition to providing the kind defensive paint presence and mobility that no one else on the roster possesses, having Nene on the floor seems to help the Wizards' defensive rebounding as well, and you obviously can't be a solid defensive team without securing defensive stops with the rebounding of the ball. Washington currently ranks fourth in the league with a defensive rebound rate of 76.1 (meaning they grab 76.1% of available defensive rebounds and give up 23.9% of those opportunities to the opposing offensive rebounding team), and that number actually jumps to 78.0 with Nene on the court.

But with Nene sitting down, the team's defensive rebound rate drops to an underwhelming 73.9, which would match the Jazz and Pistons in a tie for 18th.

So you get the picture - No Nene, no D.

And while four of the team's next six games come against the tanking Magic, 76ers, Jazz and Bucks, the Wizards will follow that up with 12 straight games either against playoff teams or on the road to take them into April.

The Wizards have rode some young offensive star power in Wall and Beal and some excellent overall defense with Nene in the fold to some moderate success in the dreadful Eastern Conference, and with all of those pieces in place, Washington would have at least a puncher's chance of emerging from the mix of teams like the Raptors, Bulls, Nets, Hawks and Bobcats in the second round. But with Nene out of the lineup for four-to-six of the season's final seven weeks and the expected defensive regression his absence will bring, the Wiz may really be looking at just trying to survive as a mere playoff team come April.

And when you consider that the organization traded a first round pick for Gortat in a 'playoffs or bust' effort this season, it's no wonder Wizards fans were willing to streak in a celebratory stupor if the results of Monday's MRI came back surprisingly positive (which I guess they kind of did).

Suffice to say, a lot was riding on those results.

(Stats courtesy of media.nba.com/Stats)