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Projecting Tavares' next contract amid his scorching start

Bruce Bennett / Getty Images Sport / Getty

For general managers planning to get in on the John Tavares sweepstakes this coming summer, the beginning of the 2017-18 season has been bittersweet.

The New York Islanders captain has been on a goal-scoring rampage over the last couple weeks. He has positioned himself among the hottest players in the league through the first month of the season, which is sure to raise his asking price this offseason.

Tavares has already tallied two hat tricks and in all has collected 12 goals and 17 points in 13 games in a contract year. His hot start - whether or not he maintains this torrid pace - puts him in a good position to not just surpass last season's totals of 28 goals and 66 points, but also his career year in 2014-15 when he finished second in league scoring with 38 goals and 86 points.

The Mississauga, Ontario native is in the final season of a six-year, $33-million contract that has seen the Islanders get tremendous bang for their buck.

However, Tavares is soon to get his due. He will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career - unless he re-ups with the Islanders - and given his body of work and the current contracts of the game's best centers, he could very well score one of the league's wealthiest deals.

Connor McDavid is, of course, at the top of the totem pole. His $12.5-million cap hit over eight years trumps all deals, but it might not be far off from what Tavares could command.

At 27 years of age, wisdom would suggest Tavares is in his prime and likely to demand a max eight-year deal - and rightfully so. As for what his cap hit should look like, consider the five top-earning centers in the league as of next season:

Player Cap Hit Age at Signing PPG in Contract Year
McDavid $12.5M 20 1.22
Toews $10.5M 26 0.89
Eichel $10M 21 0.93
Kopitar $10M 28 0.91
Malkin $9.5M 26 1.06

Since breaking into the league, Tavares has paced Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Toews, and Anze Kopitar in points. Additionally, Tavares plays all situations, wins more than half of his faceoffs, and boasts a Corsi For rating of 53.12 this season.

At his current pace, Tavares would tally 75 goals and 107 points in 82 games. That number is sure to drop, at least in the goal-scoring department as he is currently rocking a shooting percentage of 26.1 percent, more than double his career average.

He's on course to take a career-high 290 shots, and even if Tavares regresses to his career average shooting percentage the rest of the way, that would still see him record 43 goals - the highest mark of his career.

Tavares is on pace to finish well below his average assists total, but given that he's averaged 41 helpers over the last four seasons, chances are he will finish with a respectable number. If he can come close to that total, a career year may be in the cards.

Given that teams tend to overpay in free agency - should Tavares get there - it's reasonable to expect Tavares to put pen to paper on an eight-year, $80-million contract, especially if his blistering pace continues.

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