Ellis further proof that developing D-men requires patience
In the upcoming NHL Entry Draft on June 23, forwards will likely make up the majority of the top picks. Viewers at home may wonder why more defensemen aren't being chosen higher, especially those who have watched the Nashville Predators run through the Stanley Cup Playoffs on the foundation of a strong blue line.
This is simply because defensemen take much longer to develop than forwards. It's a much more difficult position to play. A general manager's rationale may be "why take a defenseman who will be on his third contract by the time he enters his prime when I may not even be here to see it?"
It's an understandable thought process, but for Predators architect David Poile, drafting defensemen - and being willing to show patience with their development - is paying off in a big way right now. Specifically, with 26-year-old Ryan Ellis.
Ellis, the 11th overall pick in the 2009 draft, enjoyed a breakout year in his sixth NHL season. Take a look at his progression:
PPG = Points per game
AGC = Adjusted goals created
PS = Point shares (an estimate number of a team's points contributed by a player)
| Year | PPG | AGC | PS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11-12 | 0.34 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 12-13 | 0.19 | 4 | 1.3 |
| 13-14 | 0.34 | 10 | 5.7 |
| 14-15 | 0.47 | 11 | 5.6 |
| 15-16 | 0.41 | 13 | 7.6 |
| 16-17 | 0.54 | 16 | 8.7 |
(Advanced stats courtesy: Hockey Reference)
While his regular season was great, Ellis has elevated his play to a whole new level in the postseason. He now has 10 points (tied with Roman Josi for a Preds single-season playoff record) through 13 games.
As an undersized defenseman (5-foot-10, 180 pounds) failing to meet the expectations of his high draft status through his first four NHL seasons, Ellis could have easily been part of a trade out of Nashville. Instead, the Predators decided to ride it out, and they probably wouldn't be in the Western Conference Final without him.
Ellis isn't the only defensemen to take some time to develop.
Both Toronto's Jake Gardiner and Pittsburgh's Justin Schultz were highly-touted youngsters coming into the league, and both just enjoyed breakout seasons at the age of 26.
Schultz, of course, is a classic example of a player that was given up on by his original team far too early. He was with the Oilers from 2012 until last season, when Edmonton's patience wore too thin.
Other late-bloomers include Calgary's Mark Giordano, who didn't become elite until his age-30 season, and Edmonton's Andrej Sekera, who didn't come into his own until after he'd spent six years in Buffalo.
The NHL is a copycat league. If Nashville goes on to win the cup, it wouldn't be surprising to see teams be increasingly willing to use high draft picks on defensemen - especially recently-hired GMs, who know they're on a long leash.